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Most Predictable Card Ever   [View Full Version]
crazylondon » Posted 11/15/08 3:09:00PM

So this is a bit rant, bit random break down of scores from the sites history, I apologize if there are any inaccuracies in my analysis.

So tonight I was watching with my printed out fight companion, and stoked when at the end of the night I had found I had 115 points, which HAD to mean an accolade. Then I log on and see the results from tonight. Holy Crap! At this point, let's just say that plenty of predictors on PG had a really good night tonight!

Being bored, and having nothing better to do at 12am I went back and looked at the winning scores from every card since MMAplayground's inception, UFC 67, which featured Silva vs. Lutter.

Since that card, the site has scored 152 cards. Two of those cards were combo cards, with back-to-back fight nights featuring higher than normal scores due to scores being based on something like 16+ fights.

So that leaves 150 cards. Out of those 150 cards, 115 points would have been a first place finish 146 times out of 150 times.

UFC 99 had four scores higher than 115. They were 116, 117, 119, and 123.
UFC 128 had one guy score 118 and another who tied 115.
UFC 129 featured one guy with a score of 117.

And the other card where 115 wasn't good enough, was tonight. So prior to tonight's card (minus the combo cards) there had been a grand total of 7 scores of 115 or higher. Tonight, 115 wasn't even good enough to get into the leaderboard; nope, 115 put you in a tie for 58th place. That's pretty mind boggling when compared to all of the other cards from the past 6+ years.

There's a few things to take from this:
1) fight fans are becoming making more educated predictions,
2) Evan Dunham getting screwed over (IMO) helped a lot of people, and
3) this by far and away should be considered the most predictable card in the history of the past 150 shows.

Sucks, had I known that was going to be the case, I would of made a lot more cash than I did tonight haha.

Sorry about the lengthy rant; you're welcome for the history lesson, and excellent picking to the 286 people who managed to crack the 100 point barrier tonight.

hotrodttt » Posted 8/25/07 6:56:00PM

UFC 73 was really easy too IMO, and the UFC cards used to be 9 fights for a good while. Not sure when this changed but that's how it used to be for a long time.

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Fedor is the G.O.A.T

Poor_Franklin » Posted 6/7/11 4:52:00AM

Lots of people profited from the dunham screwjob, but i dont think it affected the range in points scored. The scores probably wouldve been about the same if the 49% that picked dunham had gotten the W, only the leaderboard would look a lot different.

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Never Trust A Man Who Does Not Make All Of His Picks

UFC 151: Never Forget

scoozna » Posted 1/25/07 12:53:00PM

I mostly agree with TS on his 3 points. And this event really did turn out exactly like i expected. However, my pick percentage has been dropping like a stone over the last couple of PG seasons - and i attribute that to a good bit of newer (not well known) fighters and much more even matchmaking by Joe Silva and company.

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“I don’t know what kind of technique was used there, but there was a lot of kicking and punching.” Jim Brown

FastKnockout » Posted 9/24/10 8:39:00PM


Posted by scoozna

However, my pick percentage has been dropping like a stone over the last couple of PG seasons - and i attribute that to a good bit of newer (not well known) fighters and much more even matchmaking by Joe Silva and company.



This.

pmoney » Posted 10/13/10 10:40:00PM

I finished #23 in points last event with something like 86. My 10-3 w/ 76 points put me in the 800's for this event, and dropped me into the three hundreds overall. Very upset about the Dunham screwjob, that might have helped me out a hundred or so spots.

Poor_Franklin » Posted 6/7/11 4:52:00AM


Posted by pmoney

I finished #23 in points last event with something like 86. My 10-3 w/ 76 points put me in the 800's for this event, and dropped me into the three hundreds overall. Very upset about the Dunham screwjob, that might have helped me out a hundred or so spots.



i picked all brazilians on this card waiting for a screwjob. worked out in my favor this time around. def consider myself very lucky

_______________________________________
Never Trust A Man Who Does Not Make All Of His Picks

UFC 151: Never Forget

hotrodttt » Posted 8/25/07 6:56:00PM


Posted by Poor_Franklin


Posted by pmoney

I finished #23 in points last event with something like 86. My 10-3 w/ 76 points put me in the 800's for this event, and dropped me into the three hundreds overall. Very upset about the Dunham screwjob, that might have helped me out a hundred or so spots.



i picked all brazilians on this card waiting for a screwjob. worked out in my favor this time around. def consider myself very lucky



Gotta go with the Brazilians in Brazil for close fights. Switched to RDA with about 3 hours left before the lock.

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Fedor is the G.O.A.T

Shawn91111 » Posted 9/21/07 2:56:00AM

When I read the thread title..UFC 99 jumped into my head.

I think a card like this is just what some needed as the fights since Season 15 or so are just getting harder and harder to predict. More upsets are coming through

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2014 MMA Playground Moderator of the Year

shaneTpain » Posted 7/30/11 2:57:00PM

Dunham lost fair & square. Hardly a screw job

infestructure » Posted 1/18/12 9:29:00PM


Posted by crazylondon

 



+1 good post. Post more often crazylondon!

I picked RDA but thought he lost. I wonder if people are picking better because there are more OGs than new fight fans niw.



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