UFC 158 Picks and Bets using a Mathematical Model [View Full Version]

fightpredictor »
Posted 2/1/13 8:58:00PMHow funny is Nick Diaz? I realize a lot of people hate him, but he's very entertaining. Just swearing like mad in the pre-fight press conference. Anyway here's my picks and bets based on my statistical model: St Pierre over Diaz. 1 unit at 1.23 to 1 (-450) Hendricks over Condit. 1 unit at 1.77 to 1 (-132) Ellenberger over Marquardt. 1 unit at 1.62 to 1 (-160) Ring over Camozzi. 1 unit at 1.89 to 1 (-112) Elkins over Carvalho. 1 unit at 1.5 to 1 (-201) Miller over Mein. 0.5 units at 3.52 to 1 (+352) Who do you guys see winning this weekend? |

prozacnation1978 »
Posted 7/5/07 11:42:00PMI got three of your 6 Rings wins two should have been losses Camozzi got momentum he looked good against Luis cane Condit vs Hendricks is pretty much a toss up I doubt johnny finishes condit but I.can see condit finishing him. My only question is why u have a model of 6 fights only There are 12 fights on the card |

fightpredictor »
Posted 2/1/13 8:58:00PMUnfortunately, my prediction model is only set up for when fighters have at least 3 fights recorded on fightmetric.com. This is to acoount for things like a fighter debuting in the UFC and dominating their first fight so they become overrated based on their fightmetric stats. It allows for a better sample of data(3 fights). |

airkerma »
Posted 1/6/10 12:05:00PMCan you better explain your model? Or provide your algorithm? I enjoy maths as much as the next guy, but it looks like your model just picks the betting favorites. edit: on that topic, happy Pi day! _______________________________________ |

jay98107 »
Posted 1/24/07 6:50:00PMI agree with all of them except Hendricks over Condit. Not bad. |

fightpredictor »
Posted 2/1/13 8:58:00PM
Thanks haha. And sure, the basic underlying model is a linear regression based on a whole bunch of data (takes about 2 hours to collect for each event). When I run it through a test where I randomly remove observations and then test the accuracy it shows up as around 80% accurate historically. Obviously, 80% historically doesn't mean 80% in the future, but it is a good indication that in the long run the model will be making a profit. If you check out my website, you will see that the model has been successful at picking underdogs as well. It is 10-3 in the last two events. |

prozacnation1978 »
Posted 7/5/07 11:42:00PMThat's cool that u made a mathematical model I'm into calculation and stats myself for hobbie only |