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The TUF effect

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Rush

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Posted by fightfann

The problem with your argument is that .the underdogs all lost and the Favorites all won (atleast in your examples). So i guess whoever was picking these underdogs and favorites knew exactly what they were talking about. if you were making the odds (picking the underdogs) vegas would be broke.





Well, geez, it's pretty easy to come in and say this after the event.

And if everyone knows MMA as well as you are stating, then why do things like this happen Sherlock? Sorry Stickan, but I'm using your quotes.


Posted by Stickan


Posted by Stickan

I picked against Terry against Rivera and Rivera got mauled.
I picked against Terry against Salaverry and Salaverry got mauled.
I pick Terry against Leben and Terry gets mauled?


Oh and I picked Leben against MacDonald and Leben got mauled.
I picked Leben against Starnes and Leben got mauled.
I picked Terry against Leben and Terry gets mauled?



I mean, come on, if anybody comes in and says they knew so and so was going to win a fight they are full of shit and full of themselves. Below is a quote that also perfectly underscores what I am talking about. This person thought Maynard would win, but obviously had no clue how it was going to happen (just like anybody else on here)


Maynard is fighting Joe Vernes and dotn be suprised if hes a striker, that way its most likely Maynard will take him down and win the fight.


So before you start patting yourself on the back for your 6-3 record in this event (and others as well), take step back and see what this thread was really written about.

It's obvious that the purpose/meaning of this thread went way over the heads of some of you. Some of the responses seem to point fingers at me for downplaying a guy from TUF, which is not even close. Let me re-quote some of the key points so maybe you can understand them.


I'm not saying that Diaz and Maynard are not good, but have we really seen enough of them to favour them over the other guy? It is interesting to see how the show affects our choices when it comes to fights. Do we give TUFers too much credit? I think it's a valid question because it is a counter argument to the sentiment (that floats around) that TUFers are generally not the best fighters in the UFC.



I'm not saying Jason will win, and I am not necessarily saying I am picking Joe over Jason either, but I find it's funny how a guy that is 18-0 can be an underdog


Add the above quote to a quote from Dana White talking about Diego's record (it's somewhat paraphrased)


A guy with a 12-0 record is really rare


All in all this thread was to point out the inconsistencies of people's sentiment toward a lot of TUF fighters (not being that great), but still pick them (see all of my examples). I asked for reasons why people were picking the way they did and only got a few good answers, which I thought was funny since some of the TUFers were picked by 90% of the people here.

Post #31   9/20/07 4:28:47PM   

fightfann

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Posted by Rush



All in all this thread was to point out the inconsistencies of people's sentiment toward a lot of TUF fighters (not being that great), but still pick them (see all of my examples). I asked for reasons why people were picking the way they did and only got a few good answers, which I thought was funny since some of the TUFers were picked by 90% of the people here.




I didn't post to tout my 6-3 record or to explain who won after the fact. i posted to say Fighters who were on Tuf are respected for good reason and using last night's outcome is just the fact to back that up.

1. Many many applicants try to get on every TUF show and only around 20 of the most talented even get selected for the show.

2. The fighters that are repeatedly asked back for UFC cards had atleast some success on the show, not to mention received hands on training with a top UFC veteran coach for the duration of the show.

3. After the show, with the visability the TUF fighters receive, they can usually seek out a quality camp to train more extensively in.

TUF fighters usually have atleast some if not all these three things going for them, and therefore they are usually favored to beat Fighters with decent records like 4-1 or even 6-0 because you have to consider the level of competition. I would take BJ Penn over Roger Huerta even though BJ's record isn't anywhere near as good as Huerta's inflated 19-1.


The short answer is TUF fighters gain favorable status with people in the fight picking world because of what they have been through to get on the show, during the show, and after the show. Then they often prove why they got favorable status by winning.

People who hate on TUF fighters are fools and elitests.

Last edited 9/20/07 4:58PM server time by fightfann
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Post #32   9/20/07 4:57:10PM   

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Posted by fightfann

TUF fighters usually have atleast some if not all these three things going for them, and therefore they are usually favored to beat Fighters with decent records like 4-1 or even 6-0 because you have to consider the level of competition. I would take BJ Penn over Roger Huerta even though BJ's record isn't anywhere near as good as Huerta's inflated 19-1.


The short answer is TUF fighters gain favorable status with people in the fight picking world because of what they have been through to get on the show, during the show, and after the show. Then they often prove why they got favorable status by winning.

People who hate on TUF fighters are fools and elitests.




I see your points (#3 was a really good one that I never thought of), but I don't think your example is relevant. Here is another version of it.

Would you pick a TUF fighter BJ Penn's W-L record (numbers not opponents) over Roger Heurta in a fight? Let's even say the TUF guy has two wins in the octagon.

Another thing I'd like to bring up is I don't always agree that just because they got on the show that they are the best non-UFC fighters out there. There are a lot of TUF duds (probably the bigger fraction) that don't make it past the show or even in smaller events. I don't always buy the mentality that the UFC picks the best fighters out of all the TUF applicants. I think Jeff Joslin is a perfect example of a great fighter that didn't make the cut to get on the show. He is by far a better fighter than most of his TUF peers at the same weight.

I'd make a list if I have the time, maybe later.

Post #33   9/20/07 5:16:16PM   

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Posted by Rush


Posted by fightfann

TUF fighters usually have atleast some if not all these three things going for them, and therefore they are usually favored to beat Fighters with decent records like 4-1 or even 6-0 because you have to consider the level of competition. I would take BJ Penn over Roger Huerta even though BJ's record isn't anywhere near as good as Huerta's inflated 19-1.


The short answer is TUF fighters gain favorable status with people in the fight picking world because of what they have been through to get on the show, during the show, and after the show. Then they often prove why they got favorable status by winning.

People who hate on TUF fighters are fools and elitests.




I see your points (#3 was a really good one that I never thought of), but I don't think your example is relevant. Here is another version of it.

Would you pick a TUF fighter BJ Penn's W-L record (numbers not opponents) over Roger Heurta in a fight? Let's even say the TUF guy has two wins in the octagon.

Another thing I'd like to bring up is I don't always agree that just because they got on the show that they are the best non-UFC fighters out there. There are a lot of TUF duds (probably the bigger fraction) that don't make it past the show or even in smaller events. I don't always buy the mentality that the UFC picks the best fighters out of all the TUF applicants. I think Jeff Joslin is a perfect example of a great fighter that didn't make the cut to get on the show. He is by far a better fighter than most of his TUF peers at the same weight.

I'd make a list if I have the time, maybe later.



Well of course osme of those fighters are going to be crap like Andy Wang, but they also show their true colors in the show. You can reasonably assume someone is a very good fighter like Grey Maynard from his performance on the show. He showed decent standup and a dominant ground game. Considering none of the guys on the show are completely devoid of experience (minus a few exceptions) it's ok to have faith in their abilities and for the most part TUF veterans that are favored to win, do indeed win.

Post #34   9/20/07 6:47:29PM   

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all in all i think it has less to do with TUF pedigree necessarily, i just think that people are picked as underdogs or favorites based on the big picture, or a wide scope of factors, other than win/loss or what has that fighter done in his last fight.

for example: terry martin had big knockouts on his last few opponents, but they were pretty fast and weren't necessarily due to Terry's overwhelming skill (like an A.Silva knock out). And while chris Leben had been on a loosing streach lately, we know one of his greatest attributes is that he has a hard head and is tough to knock out. So based on this wider scope of knowledge, other than just terry martin has a decent win/loss and he has been on a tear lately, where Leben has been on a loosing slide lately, a very knowledgable person (more so than I) set up some odds for who is the underdog vs who is the favorite.

I think TUF fighters tend to have skill sets that dispose them to being favorites and i think the UFC puts them in stylistically favorable matches on purpose, but i think those are things different than them being favorites just because they were on the show.

and like i said, people who want to trash TUF fighters should look at the new sherdog.com article about how they are obviously legit, and people should stop hating them, or trying to be "above it" on the TUF fighters.

Post #35   9/20/07 7:42:32PM   

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Posted by Rush


Posted by Pitbull09

Dude, I feel bad for you. Everyone you complained about getting to much credit won, I;m glad I made some wins and points off it all but gosh you thought this out wrong if this topic reflected your picks.
Every TUF fighter won




Well I have to type this all over because my original post was killed when the site was updating stats.

First, read the thread again. I never said I expected all the TUF guys to win/lose. I merely stated that I didn't understand why people were picking in favour of guys that were one the show and not apparently taking their opponents records or background into consideration. Despite the results, many of the fights could have (and some should have) gone either way or the other way for that matter. (see below)

Second, yeah it feels like shit that I did crappy on last night's event, but I am not going to change my thought process. My way of thinking also got me 1st place in an event so it can't be all that bad.

Third, this event IMO, was filled with a lot of strange wins that IMO, leave me with little knowledge of a given fighter's abilities.

-Din lost because he blew out his knee and not because Florian was exceptionally great
-Sell lost because of the fact he didn't finish Quarry when he should've and not because Quarry was great, because he looked very sloppy IMO
-Martin did not look the way he did in his last two fights (and I'm sure most people that saw those fights would agree). Despite Leben looking better than previous fights, he wasn't all that impressive in the third round. Also, that fence grab could have arguably saved him from losing, but I digress
-Maynard got in a fluky early punch
-I even heard that Goullet got hurt in his fight

I need to see more undercard fights, but from the main car, IMO, the only non-fluky fight was Nate Diaz vs. Jr. I felt that fight could have gone either way and I picked Jr. to gamble for the extra points. Nate's was really the only "legitimate" win that was televised. All in all, you could have flipped a coin and done well in this event.


Oh and BTW, don't feel bad for me then laugh in my face when you make a comment like this


Posted by Pitbull09
Every TUF fighter won




because two TUF fighters lost in this event.



Wll of course the lower, I'm sorry man, I dont usually use the laughing thing but I know what its like to put time into a big post and then have something screw up the whole opinion. TUF fighters are overrated but like I said, UFC gives them fighters that they have an advantage over in style. I was impressed however that Nick started using his hands once he noticed his opponent outmatched him a bit in the BJJ. But anyways, that was wrong on my part. I apoligize
props to you

Post #36   9/20/07 7:45:28PM   

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Posted by nubby

Well of course osme of those fighters are going to be crap like Andy Wang, but they also show their true colors in the show. .



My comment was geared more toward the fact that it was commented that the fighters picked to be on the show were "the best" when that is far from true.

Post #37   9/20/07 8:16:15PM   

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Posted by Rush


Posted by nubby

Well of course osme of those fighters are going to be crap like Andy Wang, but they also show their true colors in the show. .



My comment was geared more toward the fact that it was commented that the fighters picked to be on the show were "the best" when that is far from true.



How do you know if you aren't actually there to be part of the try outs. There is probably not one single criteria that decides who makes and who doesn't. Look at fighters like Gabe Rudisomething. He was the champ of some smaller organization but he clearly wasnt cut out for the Ultimate fighter, not because he was an inferior fighter but because he was an inferior athlete. So you can't just say that the best aren't picked, I think that to the best of the producers abilities, the best are picked.

Post #38   9/20/07 10:19:44PM   

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And you've just demonstrated the TUF'er hate phenoma and also lost all those picks. I know. Like I wanted to go for Junior because he was pretty much ruled out by not being familiar. Good thing I went with Nate. But I realize to not go for the underdog just because they aren't getting an accurate amount of respect. They need to WIN to get you points.

Edit: I read more of the thread. You aren't very gracious in defeat. Read my post a few times and remove your head from your bum. You got schooled homie. yeah you didn't say they would definitely lose but were 0 for 4 in your examples. You lose!!!

Last edited 9/20/07 10:52PM server time by texuspete00
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Post #39   9/20/07 10:43:52PM   

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Posted by texuspete00

And you've just demonstrated the TUF'er hate phenoma and also lost all those picks. I know. Like I wanted to go for Junior because he was pretty much ruled out by not being familiar. Good thing I went with Nate. But I realize to not go for the underdog just because they aren't getting an accurate amount of respect. They need to WIN to get you points.

Edit: I read more of the thread. You aren't very gracious in defeat. Read my post a few times and remove your head from your bum. You got schooled homie. yeah you didn't say they would definitely lose but were 0 for 4 in your examples. You lose!!!



Who are you talking to??

Post #40   9/21/07 12:08:48AM   

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Posted by Rush

I was looking through my picks for Sat. 19th and noticed something that I've always known, but I actually have evidence for.

TUF fighters are, IMO, over rated by the fans.

Here is my proof based on this Sat. 19th fight card

Diaz vs Assucnao - both have similar records and Assuncao has 1 more UFC fight in experience. Nate's last fight, albeit a win, was not necessarily that convincing. Why is Assuncao an underdog?

Maynard vs Veres - Maynard has 3 fights, 2 wins and a NC. Veres is 4-1. Why is Veres an underdog?

Leben vs Martin - Leben is not a great fighter to start, but he is 1-3 in his last 4 fights. Martin has literally stomped on his last 2 opponents. Both of those opponents, while not top guys, are skilled and underrated (esp. Ivan)
Why isn't Leben an underdog?


Cummo vs Crocota - Cummo is 5-4 and most of those losses are recent. Crocata, though coming off a loss, has finished his opponents (save one) and only has one loss. Why isn't Cummo an underdog?


I'm not saying that Diaz and Maynard are not good, but have we really seen enough of them to favour them over the other guy? It is interesting to see how the show affects our choices when it comes to fights. Do we give TUFers too much credit? I think it's a valid question because it is a counter argument to the sentiment (that floats around) that TUFers are generally not the best fighters in the UFC.



i think ur putting too much stock into records. its not about how many people youve beaten its about who youve beaten, and who u train with matters a lot as well.

diaz came in as an experienced fighter with fights in the wec against some top competition, ya junior had a fight in the ufc but so did diaz. As goldberg and rogan pointed out during the fight, the quality of your jiu-jitsu training makes a huge difference. junior is a blackbelt but diaz is a purple belt under caeser gracie and he dominated the jiu-jitsu game. not to mention diaz fought franca and did really well against him, which title contenders has junior fought? Maynard has already fought in the ufc and he trains with randy couture, i thik he was rightfully the huge favorite and showed why with this win.

i could have sworn that leben was the underdog in this fight, at least in the sportsbooks i saw, and i really dont think him being a TUFer had much to do with it if he was the favorite. martin is an undercard fighter for the most part while leben is 5-1 in fight nights.

u do have a point about cummo, the losses, but how can u expect somone with so much octagon experience, not to mention training with the division's current champ, to be the underdog against some newcomer with a pretty record? anyways, the results hae spoken for themselves.

not trying to bash but i think ur attacking these fighters just because they were on TUF, all these fighters deserved to be the favorites in their fights. i could understand if it was manny gamburian being the favorite over gilbert melendez, that would just be ridiculous, and i would concede that in that case it would only be because of the expsure on TUF and that manny was being overated. but ur talking about these newcomers like they should be considered better than fighters on TUF just because of record comparisons which is very misleading IMO.

Post #41   9/21/07 12:20:55AM   

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Posted by nubby
Who are you talking to??



OP, TS, whatever you call them around here.

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Post #42   9/21/07 12:48:55AM   

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Posted by nubby


Who are you talking to??




It doesn't matter because the purpose of this thread was too sophisticated for his simple mind and I am tired of spelling it out for people like him. Anyone that thinks this thread is about downplaying TUFers or TUFer trashing has low reading comprehension.

Also, at the time I posted the original post I hadn't even made my picks for the event.

Post #43   9/21/07 8:28:52AM   

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Posted by Rush

I was looking through my picks for Sat. 19th and noticed something that I've always known, but I actually have evidence for.

TUF fighters are, IMO, over rated by the fans.

Here is my proof based on this Sat. 19th fight card

Diaz vs Assucnao - both have similar records and Assuncao has 1 more UFC fight in experience. Nate's last fight, albeit a win, was not necessarily that convincing. Why is Assuncao an underdog?

Maynard vs Veres - Maynard has 3 fights, 2 wins and a NC. Veres is 4-1. Why is Veres an underdog?

Leben vs Martin - Leben is not a great fighter to start, but he is 1-3 in his last 4 fights. Martin has literally stomped on his last 2 opponents. Both of those opponents, while not top guys, are skilled and underrated (esp. Ivan)
Why isn't Leben an underdog?


Cummo vs Crocota - Cummo is 5-4 and most of those losses are recent. Crocata, though coming off a loss, has finished his opponents (save one) and only has one loss. Why isn't Cummo an underdog?


I'm not saying that Diaz and Maynard are not good, but have we really seen enough of them to favour them over the other guy? It is interesting to see how the show affects our choices when it comes to fights. Do we give TUFers too much credit? I think it's a valid question because it is a counter argument to the sentiment (that floats around) that TUFers are generally not the best fighters in the UFC.



No disrespect, but talk about a post completely biting a guy in the a**. Sorry bro, I read this today and had to respond. Assuncao, Veres, Martin, and Crocota all lost, guess that was an event not to bet on the underdog.

Last edited 9/21/07 12:06PM server time by tnunley
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Post #44   9/21/07 12:04:22PM   
 
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