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The TUF effect

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Ultimate_fighter

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Leben is an underdog? Wow, i think martin is gonna ko him in like 2 minutes!

Post #16   9/19/07 1:17:21AM   

raindrops21

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Posted by Rush



Posted by raindrops21


As for the response to cans, Bisping anyone? They put him on the Forrest Griffin path to success. Elvis Sinosic, Eric Schafer, Matt Hammill...three fights the UFC thought he would take easily. I actually thought Schafer would give him a better fight, and I thought that Hammill could LnP his way to victory.




IMO, Elvis is a very underrated fighter. In no way is he a can and I did not expect Bisping to beat him easily, if at all.

Hamill was chosen because of their issues on the show as well as the fact that he has gone undefeated since the show as well. It just made sense. Hamill was considered the underdog in that fight too and look what happened.



I don't agree that Elvis is underrated, he has one notable win in his career and that was a submission win over Jeremy Horn. I knew he didn't have a chance against Bisping. Sinosic got beat by Alessio Sakara, that should tell you something! Elvis is a gamer and always brings a good fight, but he hasn't beaten anybody that's any good in a long time (actually he's only beaten one good fighter, Jeremy Horn).

I know the Hamill fight was set up because of their TUF issues, but I also think that the UFC expected Bisping to beat Hamill. I think Bisping's best move is to go to middleweight.

But it still goes back to the fact that the UFC will protect these fighters for a while to build up a fan base and get people to continue watching them, win or lose, (Forrest Griffin).

Just my .02c.

Post #17   9/19/07 10:09:54AM   

JWils

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I agree with the exposure effect. People will pick who they have seen and they will pick the people that they are impressed with.

Technically these unknown guys are underdogs on the betting lines but it's not like they are 10-1 dogs. It's a 1 on 1 competition. Someone has to be a favorite and someone has to be the underdog.

I really don't get worked up about favorites and underdogs. I just look forward to watching the fights.


Post #18   9/19/07 11:24:08AM   

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Posted by raindrops21

In a fight where [you] don't know the opponent, you're going to pick the guy you're familiar with. It's just logic.


I agree with everyone else on this point. I simply can't evaluate a fighter properly if I've never seen him perform.


Posted by raindrops21

[...]records aren't indicative [of] a fighters abilities.


This is key, imho. A guy's record is only one indicator of his ability, and only if you know how to interpret it (and a lot of people don't - a lot of people think a win is a win and a loss is a loss).


Posted by raindrops21

The UFC has invested a lot of money into these guys and I don't think in Diaz's first fight in the UFC their going to give him someone that would demolish him. I think it will be a competitive fight


This is probably a relevant factor, too, like it or not.

And yes, I've intentionally butchered raindrops' post to suit my own ends.


Posted by Rush

Veres is a pretty good wrestler and I don't think Grey will have a big (if any) advantage in that dept.


There you go. You apparently know more about Veres than (most) everybody else. More importantly, you know something about him that isn't reflected in his Won-Loss record. My guess is you've just increased everyone's knowledge of Veres by a factor of 100. If you were a professional gambler, this is exactly the kind of information you'd keep to yourself.

Last edited 9/19/07 11:52AM server time by AchillesHeel
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Post #19   9/19/07 11:52:27AM   

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Posted by JWils

Technically these unknown guys are underdogs on the betting lines but it's not like they are 10-1 dogs. It's a 1 on 1 competition. Someone has to be a favorite and someone has to be the underdog.





But tha's just it. If you look at the distribution of picks, many of these guys are only being picked by 10% (or less) of the people on the site. Those stats are what determines whether or not they are underdogs, not a subjective opinion of the site.

Post #20   9/19/07 12:22:48PM   

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Posted by Ultimate_fighter

Leben is an underdog? Wow, i think martin is gonna ko him in like 2 minutes!




No technically he's not, but I what I was proposing (or asking rather) is why he isn't an underdog considering Martin has ran through his last two opponents and Leben has not been doing well.

Post #21   9/19/07 12:25:10PM   

Pitbull09

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Dude, I feel bad for you. Everyone you complained about getting to much credit won, I;m glad I made some wins and points off it all but gosh you thought this out wrong if this topic reflected your picks.
Every TUF fighter won

Post #22   9/19/07 11:59:49PM   

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Posted by Pitbull09

Dude, I feel bad for you. Everyone you complained about getting to much credit won, I;m glad I made some wins and points off it all but gosh you thought this out wrong if this topic reflected your picks.
Every TUF fighter won




Well I have to type this all over because my original post was killed when the site was updating stats.

First, read the thread again. I never said I expected all the TUF guys to win/lose. I merely stated that I didn't understand why people were picking in favour of guys that were one the show and not apparently taking their opponents records or background into consideration. Despite the results, many of the fights could have (and some should have) gone either way or the other way for that matter. (see below)

Second, yeah it feels like shit that I did crappy on last night's event, but I am not going to change my thought process. My way of thinking also got me 1st place in an event so it can't be all that bad.

Third, this event IMO, was filled with a lot of strange wins that IMO, leave me with little knowledge of a given fighter's abilities.

-Din lost because he blew out his knee and not because Florian was exceptionally great
-Sell lost because of the fact he didn't finish Quarry when he should've and not because Quarry was great, because he looked very sloppy IMO
-Martin did not look the way he did in his last two fights (and I'm sure most people that saw those fights would agree). Despite Leben looking better than previous fights, he wasn't all that impressive in the third round. Also, that fence grab could have arguably saved him from losing, but I digress
-Maynard got in a fluky early punch
-I even heard that Goullet got hurt in his fight

I need to see more undercard fights, but from the main car, IMO, the only non-fluky fight was Nate Diaz vs. Jr. I felt that fight could have gone either way and I picked Jr. to gamble for the extra points. Nate's was really the only "legitimate" win that was televised. All in all, you could have flipped a coin and done well in this event.


Oh and BTW, don't feel bad for me then laugh in my face when you make a comment like this


Posted by Pitbull09
Every TUF fighter won




because two TUF fighters lost in this event.

Post #23   9/20/07 10:34:07AM   

shackle

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Cry more.... excuse after excuse.... A win is a win.

Seriously though TUF fighters are not as bad as people make them out to be either. I don't think they get enough respect at least over the internet just cause they where on a TV show?

lighten up on the TUF guys a bit man my god lol.



Posted by Rush


Posted by Pitbull09

Dude, I feel bad for you. Everyone you complained about getting to much credit won, I;m glad I made some wins and points off it all but gosh you thought this out wrong if this topic reflected your picks.
Every TUF fighter won




Well I have to type this all over because my original post was killed when the site was updating stats.

First, read the thread again. I never said I expected all the TUF guys to win/lose. I merely stated that I didn't understand why people were picking in favour of guys that were one the show and not apparently taking their opponents records or background into consideration. Despite the results, many of the fights could have (and some should have) gone either way or the other way for that matter. (see below)

Second, yeah it feels like shit that I did crappy on last night's event, but I am not going to change my thought process. My way of thinking also got me 1st place in an event so it can't be all that bad.

Third, this event IMO, was filled with a lot of strange wins that IMO, leave me with little knowledge of a given fighter's abilities.

-Din lost because he blew out his knee and not because Florian was exceptionally great
-Sell lost because of the fact he didn't finish Quarry when he should've and not because Quarry was great, because he looked very sloppy IMO
-Martin did not look the way he did in his last two fights (and I'm sure most people that saw those fights would agree). Despite Leben looking better than previous fights, he wasn't all that impressive in the third round. Also, that fence grab could have arguably saved him from losing, but I digress
-Maynard got in a fluky early punch
-I even heard that Goullet got hurt in his fight

I need to see more undercard fights, but from the main car, IMO, the only non-fluky fight was Nate Diaz vs. Jr. I felt that fight could have gone either way and I picked Jr. to gamble for the extra points. Nate's was really the only "legitimate" win that was televised. All in all, you could have flipped a coin and done well in this event.


Oh and BTW, don't feel bad for me then laugh in my face when you make a comment like this


Posted by Pitbull09
Every TUF fighter won




because two TUF fighters lost in this event.

Last edited 9/20/07 10:49AM server time by shackle
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Post #24   9/20/07 10:47:45AM   

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Posted by shackle

Cry more.... excuse after excuse....

Seriously though TUF fighters are not as bad as people make them out to be either. I don't think they get enough respect at least over the internet just cause they where on a TV show?

lighten up on the TUF guys a bit man my god lol.





If you are going to quote my posts at least read and understand them first.

Last edited 9/20/07 11:00AM server time by Rush
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Post #25   9/20/07 10:49:56AM   

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"Fluky win" or not, they still won, and that's what makes this sport so exciting and interesting. One punch, one mistake, can change a fight. To say Gray won by a lucky punch though, that's not entirely correct.

I'll paraphrase Jens Pulver on that saying, "No such thing as a lucky punch, he threw it, it landed, nothing lucky about that."

So, in my eyes, all the fights were great. Leben put on an exciting display, even though I don't personally like him, he's a good fighter that has a tremendous amount of heart. Most guys would have been absolutely finished in that fight. He lost points for the cage grab, so that's that.

Nate looked impressive, and I was really suprised that he dominated the way he did. Showed crisp stand-up and excellent ground skills. Nice guillotine he applied.

I was a little bit upset about Martin's performance. I think he thought that if he hit Leben, he was going to sleep. Well he found out that Leben can take a punch and it would be no walk in the park. He looked defeated at the end of the 1st round and the second was even worse. He was a beat fighter and we've all seen Leben looked rocked before and finsh a fight (Jorge Rivera). I hope Martin re-evaluates his gameplan so that if he can't knock someone out in the first minute, he can learn to try other things to finish the fights. I would've liked to see a better ground 'n' pound out of Martin, but he was lackadaisical on top.

I also have to say, I wasn't really impressed with Kenflo. I thought the fact that Din was injured and Florian tried to play it off like he finished the fight because of his "sprawl or maybe it was from the first punch I landed," was ridiculous. Not taking away from his win, but Din was obviously hurt. Did Florian know that? Maybe not, but I think he knew something was up, along with the rest of us, when Din hit the floor and didn't move or change positions. Florian has a good skillset, I just want to see some more match-ups with him. Particularly Hermes Franca, Joe Stevenson, B.J. Penn. And I don't think there's anyway Florian could beat Sherk.

Was anybody else as disappointed by Din's lack of takedown defense? I thought that if he kept the fight standing, he had a better chance to win.

Quarry/Sell was an exciting fight too. Nate definitely had some obvious ring rust and Sell had some nice stand up. I'm worried about Quarry as he got hit way to much, but showed a good chin for the most part. I think he needs some more work on his boxing defense and he needs to work on his combinations some more. He threw a lot of straight one-two type punches right down the middle. I liked the fact that he was throwing the 1-2 and a leg kick as those started to take effect later in the fight. I'm glad Nate's back in the division and I hope he can have a few good fights. I wouldn't mind seeing him fight Leben/Cote/Grove/Starnes.

Oh well, all in all a good event. I went 5-4, not my best night, but not a bad one either.

I picked:
Thomas
Martin
Diaz
Maynard
Quarry
Goulet
Garcia
Cummo
Alves

Last edited 9/20/07 10:58AM server time by raindrops21
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Post #26   9/20/07 10:53:34AM   

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Posted by raindrops21

"Fluky win" or not, they still won, and that's what makes this sport so exciting and interesting. One punch, one mistake, can change a fight. To say Gray won by a lucky punch though, that's not entirely correct.




I should re-word that. I don't mean fluky to be lucky, but rather strange. If a fighter wins/loses because of a single punch early in the fight really doesn't show me they have/haven't any skill. If they do that three fights in a row, yeah, then it's something, but I'd be surprised if Grey pulled that off again.


Drew Ficket landed a fluky kick to Koscheck, but in all honesty, Koscheck owned him that fight and is still a better fighter in my eyes.

Post #27   9/20/07 10:59:54AM   

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Posted by Rush

Here's another one to add to the list


Joe Lauzon vs Jason Reinhardt

Jason is the underdog here, but he is 18-0. I know most/all of his opponents have losing records, but they didn't necessarily have losing records at the time he fought them. In addition, even against "lesser" opponents after 18 fights you have to be decent because you are kind of playing the odds there.

I'm not saying Jason will win, and I am not necessarily saying I am picking Joe over Jason either, but I find it's funny how a guy that is 18-0 can be an underdog in this fight.



It's all about the level of competition you fight with. A guy with a losing record in the UFC could potentially run 18 and 0 in some of the smaller underground fights probably with very little problem. I tend to agree that most not all but most of the TUF veterans have very good skill but are a little green under the collar. Remember, that the producers of TUF also review a bunch of fighters that try out for the show and they take the best that they see. So it's natural that most of the TUF members will be decent fighters.

Post #28   9/20/07 11:05:14AM   

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Posted by Rush

I was looking through my picks for Sat. 19th and noticed something that I've always known, but I actually have evidence for.

TUF fighters are, IMO, over rated by the fans.

Here is my proof based on this Sat. 19th fight card

Diaz vs Assucnao - both have similar records and Assuncao has 1 more UFC fight in experience. Nate's last fight, albeit a win, was not necessarily that convincing. Why is Assuncao an underdog?

Maynard vs Veres - Maynard has 3 fights, 2 wins and a NC. Veres is 4-1. Why is Veres an underdog?

Leben vs Martin - Leben is not a great fighter to start, but he is 1-3 in his last 4 fights. Martin has literally stomped on his last 2 opponents. Both of those opponents, while not top guys, are skilled and underrated (esp. Ivan)
Why isn't Leben an underdog?


Cummo vs Crocota - Cummo is 5-4 and most of those losses are recent. Crocata, though coming off a loss, has finished his opponents (save one) and only has one loss. Why isn't Cummo an underdog?





The problem with your argument is that .the underdogs all lost and the Favorites all won (atleast in your examples). So i guess whoever was picking these underdogs and favorites knew exactly what they were talking about. if you were making the odds (picking the underdogs) vegas would be broke.

The flaw in just stating people's records as "Veres is 4-1" is that we don't know who those wins were against. this is the same thinking that puts Roger Huerta high in the rankings because he has beaten guys with 6-0 records and 8-0 records, Huerta has never even faced anyone who has any prior ocatagon experience. Records don't mean much unless you know what kind of competition they are against

Post #29   9/20/07 3:08:48PM   

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Posted by Rush

I was looking through my picks for Sat. 19th and noticed something that I've always known, but I actually have evidence for.

TUF fighters are, IMO, over rated by the fans.

Here is my proof based on this Sat. 19th fight card

Diaz vs Assucnao - both have similar records and Assuncao has 1 more UFC fight in experience. Nate's last fight, albeit a win, was not necessarily that convincing. Why is Assuncao an underdog?

Maynard vs Veres - Maynard has 3 fights, 2 wins and a NC. Veres is 4-1. Why is Veres an underdog?

Leben vs Martin - Leben is not a great fighter to start, but he is 1-3 in his last 4 fights. Martin has literally stomped on his last 2 opponents. Both of those opponents, while not top guys, are skilled and underrated (esp. Ivan)
Why isn't Leben an underdog?


Cummo vs Crocota - Cummo is 5-4 and most of those losses are recent. Crocata, though coming off a loss, has finished his opponents (save one) and only has one loss. Why isn't Cummo an underdog?


I'm not saying that Diaz and Maynard are not good, but have we really seen enough of them to favour them over the other guy? It is interesting to see how the show affects our choices when it comes to fights. Do we give TUFers too much credit? I think it's a valid question because it is a counter argument to the sentiment (that floats around) that TUFers are generally not the best fighters in the UFC.



lol now you know why

Post #30   9/20/07 4:19:12PM   
 
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