The TUF effect |
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Laying down the beats
Career record: 192-150
Season: 37-33 (#1810)
Location: Canada
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I was looking through my picks for Sat. 19th and noticed something that I've always known, but I actually have evidence for.
TUF fighters are, IMO, over rated by the fans.
Here is my proof based on this Sat. 19th fight card
Diaz vs Assucnao - both have similar records and Assuncao has 1 more UFC fight in experience. Nate's last fight, albeit a win, was not necessarily that convincing. Why is Assuncao an underdog?
Maynard vs Veres - Maynard has 3 fights, 2 wins and a NC. Veres is 4-1. Why is Veres an underdog?
Leben vs Martin - Leben is not a great fighter to start, but he is 1-3 in his last 4 fights. Martin has literally stomped on his last 2 opponents. Both of those opponents, while not top guys, are skilled and underrated (esp. Ivan)
Why isn't Leben an underdog?
Cummo vs Crocota - Cummo is 5-4 and most of those losses are recent. Crocata, though coming off a loss, has finished his opponents (save one) and only has one loss. Why isn't Cummo an underdog?
I'm not saying that Diaz and Maynard are not good, but have we really seen enough of them to favour them over the other guy? It is interesting to see how the show affects our choices when it comes to fights. Do we give TUFers too much credit? I think it's a valid question because it is a counter argument to the sentiment (that floats around) that TUFers are generally not the best fighters in the UFC.
Last edited 9/6/07 5:07PM by Rush
Edit note/reason: added fight
2 total post edits
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Post #1 9/6/07 5:02:49PM
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cowcatcher
MMA Sensei
Career record: 223-120
Season: 49-20 (#64)
Location: Milwaukee
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TUFers do get some credit they dont deserve, but when you see a guy fight on the show 3 times, then in the ufc a couple as well, you have more reason to pick a guy because youve seen what he can do. fighter finder helps find out something about their opponents when they are relatively new to the ufc, but its not the same as seeing them on tv fairly often. theres also the fact that we get to see the TUFers personalities on the show and if a guy rubs you the wrong way you probably will dislike him no matter who hes against, but if you like the guy on the show you tend to get more involved when he fights.
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Post #2 9/6/07 5:13:07PM
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DJDark41
Belt Contender
Career record: 173-112
Season: 43-27 (#1925)
Location: New York
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Very true. Sometimes I feel like people pick based on who they know, and not based on the facts(which is why I always check Sherdog to see how good they are, even though I am completely aware that a record is not a good indication of a fighters abilities.) I agree with the theory of The TUF Effect.
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Post #3 9/6/07 5:13:19PM
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DoTheMMAth
$$$corpion King!!
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Career record: 213-132
Season: 46-22 (#1251)
Location: New York
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I'd call it the "exposure effect" - people just pick with who they know
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Post #4 9/6/07 5:19:54PM
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The Cowboys Mod
Career record: 142-101
Season: 41-29 (#1705)
Location: Maryland
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I think more specifically now it's because of Serra. His first fight after winning, he comes out of nowhere, pulls the upset of the year and is the WW Champ, so that probably makes people think "Oh, this guy won TUF, I'd better pick him because he's probably going to win". That being said, I'm picking against Diaz because I still am playing the "fluke" card and will until he legit beats Gamburyan. He has not impressed me at all and I think Assuncao is a better fighter in this matchup.
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Post #5 9/6/07 5:28:17PM
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hathcock32
In Full Mount
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Career record: 220-116
Season: 50-20 (#147)
Location: San Diego
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Well id say....in a fight where theres a TUF guy and i guy that isnt known very well....people who are TUF fans are gonna pick the guys they have seen fight and have seen on TV, rather than a guy that havent seen or havent seen very much.....its that simple of answer. For example Danni Abbadi could be fighting Mach Sakurai and a lot of TUF fans would choose Abbadi just cuase they dont no much about the other fighter.
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Post #6 9/6/07 5:28:53PM
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Kimbo Slice's Punchout!
Career record: 204-116
Season: 47-23 (#163)
Location:
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Posted by DoTheMMAth
I'd call it the "exposure effect" - people just pick with who they know
I agree...it happens all the time on political ballots. I don't necessarily think the Tuffer will be the better fighter because of the fact that I know them, but sometimes I'll pick them over a no-name fighter because the UFC is notorious for throwing the Tuffers a couple of cans to in their first matches.
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It's lose, not loose!
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Post #7 9/6/07 6:21:01PM
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Laying down the beats
Career record: 192-150
Season: 37-33 (#1810)
Location: Canada
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Here's another one to add to the list
Joe Lauzon vs Jason Reinhardt
Jason is the underdog here, but he is 18-0. I know most/all of his opponents have losing records, but they didn't necessarily have losing records at the time he fought them. In addition, even against "lesser" opponents after 18 fights you have to be decent because you are kind of playing the odds there.
I'm not saying Jason will win, and I am not necessarily saying I am picking Joe over Jason either, but I find it's funny how a guy that is 18-0 can be an underdog in this fight.
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Post #8 9/18/07 10:26:27PM
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Laying down the beats
Career record: 192-150
Season: 37-33 (#1810)
Location: Canada
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Posted by hathcock32
For example Danni Abbadi could be fighting Mach Sakurai and a lot of TUF fans would choose Abbadi just cuase they dont no much about the other fighter.
I think this is a bad example. With the fighters' records just a mouse click away, who on Earth would pick in the way you just described?
I also resurrected (not the right word since this thread less than two weeks old) this thread to make a point about the "unknown" fighters' records. (see above)
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Post #9 9/18/07 10:29:32PM
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The best kicker in the world
Career record: 170-89
Season: 37-18 (#2479)
Location: Regina SK
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Posted by Rush
Here's another one to add to the list
Joe Lauzon vs Jason Reinhardt
Jason is the underdog here, but he is 18-0. I know most/all of his opponents have losing records, but they didn't necessarily have losing records at the time he fought them. In addition, even against "lesser" opponents after 18 fights you have to be decent because you are kind of playing the odds there.
I'm not saying Jason will win, and I am not necessarily saying I am picking Joe over Jason either, but I find it's funny how a guy that is 18-0 can be an underdog in this fight.
I disagree with this example, Joe beat the former UFC LW champ before being on the show. He wen't on the show to gain experience not noteriety. I get what your saying but Joe is a legitimate fighter, unlike alot of other TUFer's (wayne weems ect.)
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Post #10 9/18/07 10:32:28PM
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raindrops21
MMA Regular
Career record: 168-75
Season: 29-11 (#3752)
Location: St. Louis
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I think it's the "exposure effect" as well. In a fight where a lot of people don't know the opponent, you're going to pick the guy you're familiar with. It's just logic.
I find myself doing it sometimes when I pick, but I try to be as unbiased as possible. I like to throw my heart out the window and pick with my brain. Which is sometimes very hard to do.
But I agree with your theory. I think the Luke Cummo fight is closer than most think, and records aren't indicative to a fighters abilities. Cummo is a tough guy and I expect that fight to go to a decision.
Leben should very much be the underdog against Martin. They both have a common opponent in Jorge Rivera, and both of them knocked him out. I think that could be a great fight, possibly, fight of the night based on the all out styles. I don't think Leben has the wrestling game to put Martin down as he is such a short fighter. I think we'll see fists flying until someone goes to sleep.
Now as far as the Junior Assuncao and Nate Diaz fight and the Gray Maynard and Joe Veres fight, I look at it this way. The UFC has invested a lot of money into these guys and I don't think in Diaz's first fight in the UFC their going to give him someone that would demolish him. I think it will be a competitive fight, but I think Diaz pulls out the W. Maynard on the other hand was given Rob Emerson as his finale fight. Don't think they were trying to hype him up? Maynard's wrestling alone guaranteed him at the least a decision victory, but we all know the fluke KO that happened.
So I think besides the "exposure effect" the "TUF effect" is very real only because I don't think the UFC would destroy stars they are so desperately trying to market.
Just my .02c.
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Post #11 9/18/07 10:46:44PM
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Laying down the beats
Career record: 192-150
Season: 37-33 (#1810)
Location: Canada
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Posted by raindrops21
Now as far as the Junior Assuncao and Nate Diaz fight and the Gray Maynard and Joe Veres fight, I look at it this way. The UFC has invested a lot of money into these guys and I don't think in Diaz's first fight in the UFC their going to give him someone that would demolish him. I think it will be a competitive fight, but I think Diaz pulls out the W. Maynard on the other hand was given Rob Emerson as his finale fight. Don't think they were trying to hype him up? Maynard's wrestling alone guaranteed him at the least a decision victory, but we all know the fluke KO that happened.
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Just to throw this back out there for the sake of debate.
Veres is a pretty good wrestler and I don't think Grey will have a big (if any) advantage in that dept.
As for the UFC investing money. I think it's the other way around. I think the TUF fighters (the show as a whole) has made the UFC money rather than the other way around. That's not to say the UFC doesn't want the TUFers to win, but at the same time, I don't think the guys they have them fight are all cans.
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Post #12 9/18/07 10:57:13PM
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raindrops21
MMA Regular
Career record: 168-75
Season: 29-11 (#3752)
Location: St. Louis
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Posted by Rush
Posted by raindrops21
Now as far as the Junior Assuncao and Nate Diaz fight and the Gray Maynard and Joe Veres fight, I look at it this way. The UFC has invested a lot of money into these guys and I don't think in Diaz's first fight in the UFC their going to give him someone that would demolish him. I think it will be a competitive fight, but I think Diaz pulls out the W. Maynard on the other hand was given Rob Emerson as his finale fight. Don't think they were trying to hype him up? Maynard's wrestling alone guaranteed him at the least a decision victory, but we all know the fluke KO that happened.
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Just to throw this back out there for the sake of debate.
Veres is a pretty good wrestler and I don't think Grey will have a big (if any) advantage in that dept.
As for the UFC investing money. I think it's the other way around. I think the TUF fighters (the show as a whole) has made the UFC money rather than the other way around. That's not to say the UFC doesn't want the TUFers to win, but at the same time, I don't think the guys they have them fight are all cans.
Oh, I agree with you, don't get me wrong. The UFC has made a ton of money off of these fighters, but they want to keep making money off these fighters. If they lose, it does nothing for them. From a business stand point, if the guy that won the whole show goes out and loses his first fight especially in a dominating fashion, it kind of makes people start to question the validity of the fighters on the show.
As for the response to cans, Bisping anyone? They put him on the Forrest Griffin path to success. Elvis Sinosic, Eric Schafer, Matt Hammill...three fights the UFC thought he would take easily. I actually thought Schafer would give him a better fight, and I thought that Hammill could LnP his way to victory.
As far as Veres, I actually haven't seen any footage of him, which is a big no-no for me because I usually don't comment on fights that I haven't seen the fighters. If his wrestling is on par with Maynard's it could make for a very interesting fight considering Gray's standup has been very lacking.
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Post #13 9/18/07 11:02:52PM
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Laying down the beats
Career record: 192-150
Season: 37-33 (#1810)
Location: Canada
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Posted by cmill21
I disagree with this example, Joe beat the former UFC LW champ before being on the show. He wen't on the show to gain experience not noteriety. I get what your saying but Joe is a legitimate fighter, unlike alot of other TUFer's (wayne weems ect.)
I'm not saying he's not a legitimate fighter. What I am saying is that I don't believe that Jason is an underdog.
Knocking out Jens was huge for him, but I still think that he would be the favorite had he knocked out Joe Boxer instead.
Posted by raindrops21
As for the response to cans, Bisping anyone? They put him on the Forrest Griffin path to success. Elvis Sinosic, Eric Schafer, Matt Hammill...three fights the UFC thought he would take easily. I actually thought Schafer would give him a better fight, and I thought that Hammill could LnP his way to victory.
IMO, Elvis is a very underrated fighter. In no way is he a can and I did not expect Bisping to beat him easily, if at all.
Hamill was chosen because of their issues on the show as well as the fact that he has gone undefeated since the show as well. It just made sense. Hamill was considered the underdog in that fight too and look what happened.
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Post #14 9/18/07 11:25:28PM
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Pitbull09
MMA Sensei
Career record: 134-69
Season: 43-23 (#1565)
Location: PA
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Ok, Cummo and Leben are underdogs imo. Of course Tuf fighters are overrated, they become fan favorites cause you get to watch a whole show about their life before they go into the ufc. Its almost like scouting.
But Cumos opponent has a big record but has lost his only ufc fight. Im still against cumo, he shouldnt even be in the ufc.
Leben is on a huge losing streak after the #1 contender fight wtih silva. The only reason I think people would pick him, is they think he realizes that he needs to win this to stay in UFC. Terry is still the favored winner however.
For diaz and maynard, you have to understand that the UFC is giving them fighters their pretty sure can the TUF fighters can beat to bring them more popularity before feeding them to the higher guys (Chris Leben to Silva.) Some of them make it, some dont.
Nate Diaz however is the brother of Nick Diaz and Idk if you know, but that should make people favor him alittle more. Records dont determine everything, its training camps and experience along with styles. Maynard is fighting Joe Vernes and dotn be suprised if hes a striker, that way its most likely Maynard will take him down and win the fight.
UFC is a business and they have to sell merchandise, sometiems people forget that. Look at Roger, he has been fed crappy fighters for awhile now just to gain popularity and its working.
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Post #15 9/18/07 11:43:22PM
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