Pick'em Leagues: THE BIG SHOW CASUAL BEST OF THE REST Single Event PvP: FANTASY POOLS Betting Leagues: THE BIG SHOW BEST OF THE REST

Most Predictable Card Ever

Print  
Posted By Message

crazylondon

Learning to Sprawl

crazylondon Avatar
3


 
 
 


 
 
Posts:7
Career:1,206-666
Joined:Nov 2008
Camp: Nuthin But The Best
Chips:
11
So this is a bit rant, bit random break down of scores from the sites history, I apologize if there are any inaccuracies in my analysis.

So tonight I was watching with my printed out fight companion, and stoked when at the end of the night I had found I had 115 points, which HAD to mean an accolade. Then I log on and see the results from tonight. Holy Crap! At this point, let's just say that plenty of predictors on PG had a really good night tonight!

Being bored, and having nothing better to do at 12am I went back and looked at the winning scores from every card since MMAplayground's inception, UFC 67, which featured Silva vs. Lutter.

Since that card, the site has scored 152 cards. Two of those cards were combo cards, with back-to-back fight nights featuring higher than normal scores due to scores being based on something like 16+ fights.

So that leaves 150 cards. Out of those 150 cards, 115 points would have been a first place finish 146 times out of 150 times.

UFC 99 had four scores higher than 115. They were 116, 117, 119, and 123.
UFC 128 had one guy score 118 and another who tied 115.
UFC 129 featured one guy with a score of 117.

And the other card where 115 wasn't good enough, was tonight. So prior to tonight's card (minus the combo cards) there had been a grand total of 7 scores of 115 or higher. Tonight, 115 wasn't even good enough to get into the leaderboard; nope, 115 put you in a tie for 58th place. That's pretty mind boggling when compared to all of the other cards from the past 6+ years.

There's a few things to take from this:
1) fight fans are becoming making more educated predictions,
2) Evan Dunham getting screwed over (IMO) helped a lot of people, and
3) this by far and away should be considered the most predictable card in the history of the past 150 shows.

Sucks, had I known that was going to be the case, I would of made a lot more cash than I did tonight haha.

Sorry about the lengthy rant; you're welcome for the history lesson, and excellent picking to the 286 people who managed to crack the 100 point barrier tonight.

Last edited 5/19/13 3:38AM server time by crazylondon
Edit note/reason: n/a
4 total post edits

Post #1   5/19/13 3:32:43AM   

hotrodttt

Ridin the MMA WW since 02 !

hotrodttt Avatar
22
 
 
 
 


 
 
Posts:2,910
Career:2,664-1,429
Joined:Aug 2007
Camp: Dark Horse
Chips:
753
UFC 73 was really easy too IMO, and the UFC cards used to be 9 fights for a good while. Not sure when this changed but that's how it used to be for a long time.

_______________________________________
Fedor is the G.O.A.T

Post #2   5/19/13 5:33:18AM   

Poor_Franklin

Slight Reach Advantage

Poor_Franklin Avatar
9
 
 
 
 


 
 
Posts:6,247
Career:1,648-943
Joined:Jun 2011
Camp: Project Mayhem
Chips:
1,419
Lots of people profited from the dunham screwjob, but i dont think it affected the range in points scored. The scores probably wouldve been about the same if the 49% that picked dunham had gotten the W, only the leaderboard would look a lot different.

_______________________________________
Never Trust A Man Who Does Not Make All Of His Picks

Post #3   5/19/13 5:48:47AM   

scoozna

Annoying since 2007

scoozna Avatar
7
 
 
 
 


 
 
Posts:3,067
Career:2,347-1,299
Joined:Jan 2007
Camp: The Ringers
Chips:
609
I mostly agree with TS on his 3 points. And this event really did turn out exactly like i expected. However, my pick percentage has been dropping like a stone over the last couple of PG seasons - and i attribute that to a good bit of newer (not well known) fighters and much more even matchmaking by Joe Silva and company.

Last edited 5/19/13 8:43AM server time by scoozna
Edit note/reason: n/a

_______________________________________
“Islam is the religion of peace & I'm a gay pirate playing harpsicord in a Lawrence Welk coverband!.” Ted Nugent

Post #4   5/19/13 8:42:45AM   

FastKnockout

THE RUTHLESS ONE

FastKnockout Avatar
7
 
 
 
 


 
 
Posts:13,662
Career:1,926-1,070
Joined:Sep 2010
Camp: Project Mayhem
Chips:
1,726

Posted by scoozna

However, my pick percentage has been dropping like a stone over the last couple of PG seasons - and i attribute that to a good bit of newer (not well known) fighters and much more even matchmaking by Joe Silva and company.



This.

Post #5   5/19/13 10:34:13AM   

pmoney

P$ Pimpin'

pmoney Avatar
8
 
 
 


 
 
Posts:3,968
Career:1,588-965
Joined:Oct 2010
Camp: The Ringers
Chips:
1,280
I finished #23 in points last event with something like 86. My 10-3 w/ 76 points put me in the 800's for this event, and dropped me into the three hundreds overall. Very upset about the Dunham screwjob, that might have helped me out a hundred or so spots.

Post #6   5/19/13 3:58:41PM   

Poor_Franklin

Slight Reach Advantage

Poor_Franklin Avatar
9
 
 
 
 


 
 
Posts:6,247
Career:1,648-943
Joined:Jun 2011
Camp: Project Mayhem
Chips:
1,419

Posted by pmoney

I finished #23 in points last event with something like 86. My 10-3 w/ 76 points put me in the 800's for this event, and dropped me into the three hundreds overall. Very upset about the Dunham screwjob, that might have helped me out a hundred or so spots.



i picked all brazilians on this card waiting for a screwjob. worked out in my favor this time around. def consider myself very lucky

Last edited 5/19/13 4:19PM server time by Poor_Franklin
Edit note/reason: n/a

_______________________________________
Never Trust A Man Who Does Not Make All Of His Picks

Post #7   5/19/13 4:19:31PM   

hotrodttt

Ridin the MMA WW since 02 !

hotrodttt Avatar
22
 
 
 
 


 
 
Posts:2,910
Career:2,664-1,429
Joined:Aug 2007
Camp: Dark Horse
Chips:
753

Posted by Poor_Franklin


Posted by pmoney

I finished #23 in points last event with something like 86. My 10-3 w/ 76 points put me in the 800's for this event, and dropped me into the three hundreds overall. Very upset about the Dunham screwjob, that might have helped me out a hundred or so spots.



i picked all brazilians on this card waiting for a screwjob. worked out in my favor this time around. def consider myself very lucky



Gotta go with the Brazilians in Brazil for close fights. Switched to RDA with about 3 hours left before the lock.

_______________________________________
Fedor is the G.O.A.T

Post #8   5/19/13 4:35:54PM   

Shawn91111

The MMAPlayground's Co-Creator

Shawn91111 Avatar
18
 
 
 


 
 
Posts:5,820
Career:2,850-1,476
Joined:Sep 2007
Camp: Dark Horse
Chips:
1,092
When I read the thread title..UFC 99 jumped into my head.

I think a card like this is just what some needed as the fights since Season 15 or so are just getting harder and harder to predict. More upsets are coming through

_______________________________________
In 2006 I had a vision to create a fantasy MMA site, thus the Playground was born

Post #9   5/19/13 4:42:54PM   

shaneTpain

Av Bet Record: 39-48

shaneTpain Avatar
5




 
 
 


 
 
Posts:4,152
Career:1,604-1,008
Joined:Jul 2011
Camp: Project Mayhem
Chips:
989
Dunham lost fair & square. Hardly a screw job

Post #10   5/19/13 5:30:30PM   

infestructure

NOW KITH

infestructure Avatar
4



 
 
 


 
 
Posts:1,917
Career:734-445
Joined:Jan 2012
Camp: Project Mayhem
Chips:
635

Posted by crazylondon

 



+1 good post. Post more often crazylondon!

I picked RDA but thought he lost. I wonder if people are picking better because there are more OGs than new fight fans niw.

Post #11   5/19/13 10:18:37PM