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UFC 156 Predictions

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fightpredictor

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I've been working on an algorithm to predict UFC fights over the last year and a half or so. Here are my picks and bets for UFC 156 (I will be mocking these in the MMA fantasy on here):

Aldo over Edgar, 1 unit at 1.42 to 1
Fitch over Maia, 1.5 units at 1.588 to 1
Benavidez over McCall, 1 unit at 1.38 to 1
Tibau over Dunham, 1.5 units at 1.91 to 1
Woodley over Hieron, 0.5 units at 1.76 to 1
Overeem, Evans, Volkmann over Silva, Nogueira, Green, 1 unit at 1.958 to 1
Overeem, Evans, Rivera over Silva, Nogueira, Figueroa, 1 unit at 2.04 to 1

Last edited 2/1/13 9:23PM server time by grappler0000
Edit note/reason: self promotion
2 total post edits

Post #1   2/1/13 9:10:36PM   

MuayThaiGeek13

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Dafuqijusread

Post #2   2/1/13 10:24:24PM   

tcunningham

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you got me interested with algorithm and lost me with all the numbers. some explanation?

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Post #3   2/1/13 11:20:13PM   

fightpredictor

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Haha sorry guys. Basically its a math model that allows me to predict UFC fight outcomes. The numbers are basically the number of units I'm betting vs what I will get back. For example, a 1 unit bet at 2 to 1 means if I win I get 2 units back, therefore my profit is 2-1 or 1 unit.

I decided to make a unit 5% of my betting bankroll. So if you assume my bankroll is $100, a 1 unit bet is $5. The Jose Aldo bet above at 1.42 to 1 will win me $0.42 for every dollar bet. The same logic applies to the other questions.

Sorry for not being more clear initially, let me know if you have any other questions and feel free to check out the website. If you've never bet before, there are instructions for setting up a betting account. You can do so for as little as $20.

Post #4   2/1/13 11:30:22PM   

DrSlacker

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Describe your algorithm
It looks like you just pick the dude with the better record of recent fights lol

Post #5   2/2/13 8:30:43AM   

fightpredictor

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Basically, I collect a whole bunch of data and use a math technique called regression analysis which takes a whole bunch of data and creates a formula. I then test that formula to see how accurately it has worked based on the historical data I have collected.

On this card in particular, most of the fighters are those who seem like they obviously should win.

Post #6   2/2/13 9:40:42AM   

kopower

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Posted by MuayThaiGeek13

Dafuqijusread



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Billy Madison-

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in the playground is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no props, and may the mods have mercy on your soul.


Post #7   2/2/13 11:31:36AM   

Bubbles

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or you can just give normal odds like -200 or 2:1

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Post #8   2/2/13 12:54:12PM   

JLS1980

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Posted by Bubbles

or you can just give normal odds like -200 or 2:1



That's how I do it.

Post #9   2/2/13 2:34:57PM   

fightpredictor

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Aldo over Edgar, 1 unit at -179
Fitch over Maia, 1.5 units at -195
Benavidez over McCall, 1 unit at -235
Tibau over Dunham, 1.5 units at -110
Woodley over Hieron, 0.5 units at -125
Overeem, Evans, Volkmann over Silva, Nogueira, Green, 1 unit at +200
Overeem, Evans, Rivera over Silva, Nogueira, Figueroa, 1 unit at +204

Changed to regular odds lol. The other way is just what you get back from betting $1. I just find it easier to work with.

Post #10   2/2/13 2:38:45PM   

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Just went to your website homie.......I have a new formula for ya to follow.....using a typeface that is easier to read.....I have an easier time deciphering Rampage spewing baby ga-ga from his stanky pie-hole than trying to read Garamond over top of a horrible background image.

Simple Math > algorithm

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Post #11   2/2/13 4:06:51PM   

fightpredictor

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What simple math are you referring to? As for the typeface/background, its black text on a white background...why is it hard to read?

Post #12   2/2/13 5:28:26PM   

prozacnation1978

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Posted by fightpredictor

Haha sorry guys. Basically its a math model that allows me to predict UFC fight outcomes. The numbers are basically the number of units I'm betting vs what I will get back. For example, a 1 unit bet at 2 to 1 means if I win I get 2 units back, therefore my profit is 2-1 or 1 unit.

I decided to make a unit 5% of my betting bankroll. So if you assume my bankroll is $100, a 1 unit bet is $5. The Jose Aldo bet above at 1.42 to 1 will win me $0.42 for every dollar bet. The same logic applies to the other questions.

Sorry for not being more clear initially, let me know if you have any other questions and feel free to check out the website. If you've never bet before, there are instructions for setting up a betting account. You can do so for as little as $20.



Curious how your fight predicter outcome will be after the fights tonight.

Post #13   2/2/13 6:16:26PM   

Chael_Sonnen

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Would love to see your UNIT predictions now.

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Post #14   2/3/13 1:28:30AM   

airkerma

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I like the idea, but it looks like the algorithm breaks down during upsets.

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Post #15   2/4/13 10:19:28AM   
 
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