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Ryan Bader vs. Lyoto Machida added to UFC on FOX 4 in Los Angeles

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mattjonesy

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Machida wil put on a show against Bader....perfect match up for him to show off his best assets.

Post #16   5/1/12 8:26:46AM   

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I like Bader better then Machida. That said, a straight up pick, I would have to go with Machida. If the odds get lopsided in too heavily in Machida's favor, Bader would be a good underdog pick/bet. Bader definitely can win, but based on competition faced, record, experience etc., you have to go with the ex champ.

Post #17   5/1/12 9:07:01AM   

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This should be a great fight. I expect Machida to win this one, but I'm torn on if it will be a mid to late tko or just a UD. Machida will most likely stuff the takedowns, and he could more than likely take Bader down if he so wished. Bader's boxing might be decent enough to keep up with Machida, but he lacks the kicks that Machida possesses and by a very wide margin at that.

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Post #18   5/1/12 9:36:13AM   

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Machida will probably win, but I'm pulling for Bader to get a stoppage. LHW has been dominated by the same 5-6 guys for the past 2-3 years (Evans, Jones, Machida, Rampage, Shogun) and it's time for some of the guys ranked lower down to break into the top 5.

Gustafsson's almost there, and my hope is that guys like Bader, Davis and even Te Huna to get themselves in there. 205 just feels SO top-heavy without a real pipeline of younger guys to take their place..

Post #19   5/1/12 10:26:17AM   

postman

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Posted by Dberntson

I like Bader better then Machida. That said, a straight up pick, I would have to go with Machida. If the odds get lopsided in too heavily in Machida's favor, Bader would be a good underdog pick/bet. Bader definitely can win, but based on competition faced, record, experience etc., you have to go with the ex champ.



I see people say things like this all the time and I have to ask why? Why would Bader be a good Underdog pick? The only time I lay money on a fight I need two things in my favor one the betting line has to be right, say even or my fighter slightly favored of course if they are a dog all the better. Two the fighter needs to have a clear path to victory. I need to look at a fight and say this is how I see this guy winning a fight. I made a boat load of money on Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera I looked at that fight and I saw no way Brandon Vera could take tim down and had very little faith in his ablity to deal with the jab.

It might just be me but I see nothing in Baders tool kit that gives him an advantage to beat Machida. I'm not sure if you mean Playground money or real money but putting any money on Bader no matter the odds seems like a sure way to lose said money.

Post #20   5/1/12 10:32:17AM   

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I am counting on Lyoto to bounce back with this fight. This should be an easy UD win for Machida IMO.

Post #21   5/1/12 11:56:53AM   

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Yeah, I don't see this working out for Bader unless he's made some serious changes.

First, his takedowns. Machida's one of the most difficult in the division to take down, right up there with Jon Jones in my book. His sumo base is both strong and technical, and the man has the reflexes to usually (always?) be in the right position when his opponent shoots in. Bader's all about the power double or the quick single, relying more on strength and speed than technique. I think Machida will be ready for that.

Next, his standup. Bader hits like a train, but there's a lot of windup and telegraph to it. Machida should be able to avoid those easily. To this point, Machida's proven he can get tagged in two areas with any kind of consistency - leg kicks and in the clinch. Bader's never shown an aptitude for kicks, and while he may be able to land something in the clinch, I doubt it'll be before Machida lands something of his own, or gets a takedown, or breaks away.

What I think we're seeing now is that Bader's capping out at who he can beat because he got by before with his athleticism. He's gonna need to work on his technique a lot more or he'll start getting crushed in 5-6 years when his abilities get drained by age.

Machida takes this however he wants.

Post #22   5/1/12 12:05:00PM   

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Posted by postman


Posted by Dberntson

I like Bader better then Machida. That said, a straight up pick, I would have to go with Machida. If the odds get lopsided in too heavily in Machida's favor, Bader would be a good underdog pick/bet. Bader definitely can win, but based on competition faced, record, experience etc., you have to go with the ex champ.



I see people say things like this all the time and I have to ask why? Why would Bader be a good Underdog pick? The only time I lay money on a fight I need two things in my favor one the betting line has to be right, say even or my fighter slightly favored of course if they are a dog all the better. Two the fighter needs to have a clear path to victory. I need to look at a fight and say this is how I see this guy winning a fight. I made a boat load of money on Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera I looked at that fight and I saw no way Brandon Vera could take tim down and had very little faith in his ablity to deal with the jab.

It might just be me but I see nothing in Baders tool kit that gives him an advantage to beat Machida. I'm not sure if you mean Playground money or real money but putting any money on Bader no matter the odds seems like a sure way to lose said money.



It's basic gambling (and business/investments) 101. Risk vs. reward. The bigger the risk, the bigger the reward/payout should be. If the spread is big enough, the risk of losing could be worth the big payday.Every individual has their own risk aversion tolerance. Some people are completely averse to risk at all cost and will only bet on "sure" things. Others almost seek out risk and thrive on the big risk, big payout. They win big or lose big. It's called gambling for a reason, there is no 100% guaranteed outcome.

I personally think Bader has two ways to win this 1) grind out a UD via his superior wrestling or 2) clip Machida with his power. The puncher's chance.

As for the pick, I was talking playground money, but would throw $10 on Bader if I was in Vegas and the odds were really good. In which case this could be a great pick to add to your parlay or a straight up pick with a small $$ amount.

Last edited 5/1/12 12:46PM server time by Dberntson
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Post #23   5/1/12 12:45:52PM   

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Interesting bout., although I think Machida will mop the floor with him. For such a highly decorated wrestler, Bader has a terrible shoot double leg--it's more like a tackle. I think he's just too slow for Machida.

Post #24   5/1/12 3:02:45PM   

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Posted by Dberntson


Posted by postman


Posted by Dberntson

I like Bader better then Machida. That said, a straight up pick, I would have to go with Machida. If the odds get lopsided in too heavily in Machida's favor, Bader would be a good underdog pick/bet. Bader definitely can win, but based on competition faced, record, experience etc., you have to go with the ex champ.



I see people say things like this all the time and I have to ask why? Why would Bader be a good Underdog pick? The only time I lay money on a fight I need two things in my favor one the betting line has to be right, say even or my fighter slightly favored of course if they are a dog all the better. Two the fighter needs to have a clear path to victory. I need to look at a fight and say this is how I see this guy winning a fight. I made a boat load of money on Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera I looked at that fight and I saw no way Brandon Vera could take tim down and had very little faith in his ablity to deal with the jab.

It might just be me but I see nothing in Baders tool kit that gives him an advantage to beat Machida. I'm not sure if you mean Playground money or real money but putting any money on Bader no matter the odds seems like a sure way to lose said money.



It's basic gambling (and business/investments) 101. Risk vs. reward. The bigger the risk, the bigger the reward/payout should be. If the spread is big enough, the risk of losing could be worth the big payday.Every individual has their own risk aversion tolerance. Some people are completely averse to risk at all cost and will only bet on "sure" things. Others almost seek out risk and thrive on the big risk, big payout. They win big or lose big. It's called gambling for a reason, there is no 100% guaranteed outcome.

I personally think Bader has two ways to win this 1) grind out a UD via his superior wrestling or 2) clip Machida with his power. The puncher's chance.

As for the pick, I was talking playground money, but would throw $10 on Bader if I was in Vegas and the odds were really good. In which case this could be a great pick to add to your parlay or a straight up pick with a small $$ amount.




Just two ways to look at it I suppose. But do you really think after all the Machida fights we have seen that Ryan Bader has a reasonable chance of either ways you put down happening? It seems very unlikley. $10 yeah no big deal I suppose. I hate to lose at anything.

Post #25   5/1/12 8:11:29PM   

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Hes gotta get those sloppy hands on or around machida before the takedown and machidas body movement is his tdd not his sprawl.

Post #26   5/1/12 10:12:28PM   

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Posted by ghandikush

Hes gotta get those sloppy hands on or around machida before the takedown and machidas body movement is his tdd not his sprawl.



Well both are apart of his TDD. Anderson is someone who's TDD is almost entirely his movement, and not his sprawl. Machida uses his Sumo up close to push wrestlers off of him if they get close.

I think this is a tough fight for Bader.

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Post #27   5/2/12 12:34:22AM   

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Posted by Pookie


Posted by ghandikush

Hes gotta get those sloppy hands on or around machida before the takedown and machidas body movement is his tdd not his sprawl.



Well both are apart of his TDD. Anderson is someone who's TDD is almost entirely his movement, and not his sprawl. Machida uses his Sumo up close to push wrestlers off of him if they get close.

I think this is a tough fight for Bader.



Besides isn't the "Sprawl" supposed to be your last line of TDD? It leaves you open to some many chains.

Post #28   5/2/12 10:20:43AM   

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I will pick Machida to win, but I don't see it as a sure thing. Bader is improving, and did just beat Rampage, who(won a narrow decision against Machida because he won the first two rounds with pressure).

Bader can apply the same pressure. Even though Machida was winning the standup against Jones, his counter style running around the edge of the octagon is not always something Judges like. Judges like pressure unless you can't land anything.
Jones pushed forward after Machida already sprawled.
Bader should stand just long enough to make Machida think he wants the standing ko, and than bull rush and be relentless switching from double to single. I think getting in on the legs while Machida is on the cage is the the one opening Jones expeosed in Machida's takedown defense.

Last edited 5/2/12 12:36PM server time by icantthinkofanything
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Post #29   5/2/12 12:24:21PM   

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Posted by postman


Posted by Pookie


Posted by ghandikush

Hes gotta get those sloppy hands on or around machida before the takedown and machidas body movement is his tdd not his sprawl.



Well both are apart of his TDD. Anderson is someone who's TDD is almost entirely his movement, and not his sprawl. Machida uses his Sumo up close to push wrestlers off of him if they get close.

I think this is a tough fight for Bader.



Besides isn't the "Sprawl" supposed to be your last line of TDD? It leaves you open to some many chains.



Should be but most guys seem to be clinching spawling instead of switching moving anyway.

Post #30   5/2/12 5:10:29PM   
 
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