need help, im betting real money!! |
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tdietel01
MMA Regular
Career record: 46-29
Season: 5-5 (#6921)
Location: Findlay Ohio
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i need help from you guys on a parlay involving real money. i think my pics are solid but thought i would get some oppinions since i havnt seen some of these guys fiight in a while (or not at all)
here are the guys im taking.....
arlovski, barnett, sobral, belfort, lindland and lil nog.
is there anyone that is a big risk to my parlay? thanks!
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Post #1 7/18/08 11:34:19PM
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joshryanshepherd
Standup Guy
Career record: 53-39
Season: 14-5 (#924)
Location: Kentucky
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sobral is a problem i think. all the others are a sure bet 
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Post #2 7/18/08 11:50:52PM
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breakdown5
MMA Regular
Career record: 132-66
Season: 15-6 (#429)
Location: Hell (Upstate NY)
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Posted by joshryanshepherd
sobral is a problem i think. all the others are a sure bet
Babalu should win but his is one of the closer fights on the card.
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Post #3 7/18/08 11:54:04PM
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Mayhem13
MMA Sensei
Career record: 124-78
Season: 14-7 (#924)
Location: Ohio
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personally I wouldnt put
Belfort, Arlovski, and Babalu all in a parlay..as I am pretty sure atleast 1 of the 3 will lose.
those fights are a lot closer then the odds show, and all 3 fighters are kind of unreliable at times...
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Post #4 7/19/08 12:03:43AM
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Boo_Radley21
MMA Sensei
Career record: 107-74
Season: 14-7 (#2800)
Location:
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What's with people doubting Babalu, lol. He's gonna take Whitehead hands down.
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Post #5 7/19/08 12:18:34AM
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tdietel01
MMA Regular
Career record: 46-29
Season: 5-5 (#6921)
Location: Findlay Ohio
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babalu was the one i was most concerned about. and you guys confirmed it! lol i will take him off i think. thanks for the help!
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Post #6 7/19/08 12:47:31AM
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Hammer of the Mods
Career record: 183-114
Season: 15-6 (#543)
Location: Hudson, NH
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Posted by tdietel01
i need help from you guys on a parlay involving real money. i think my pics are solid but thought i would get some oppinions since i havnt seen some of these guys fiight in a while (or not at all)
here are the guys im taking.....
arlovski, barnett, sobral, belfort, lindland and lil nog.
is there anyone that is a big risk to my parlay? thanks!
That is an incredibly risky parlay, even taking babalu out. Look at your record. You call one out of three fights wrong, so with that in mind, you're basically guarenteed to lose this parlay. When betting real money you have to have a very solid grasp on realistic percentages for the fights and whos going to win. Heres a run-down of those fights in percentages, from my point of view:
Arlovski vs. Rothwell 70%-30%
Barnett vs. Rizzo 80%-20%
Sobral vs. Whitehead 60%-40%
Belfort vs. Martin 70%-30%
Lindland vs. Negaro 70%-30%
Lil nog vs. Dewees 90%-10%
Any one of those goes south and you lose all your money. Parlays, while tempting, are best done with sure things (Nog and Barnett would be a fairly conservative parlay), or with a sure thing and one dog to increase the amount that dog pays off if it works out. I'd recomment scraping the parlay and putting singular amounts on Barnett, Belfort, and Arlovski if I were you, and maybe Sobral if you feel the odds are reasonable.
_______________________________________
All brave men with hearts of war, ride the path of mighty Thor.
MMAplaygrounds resident gun nut.
DREAM 1 - 2nd in Points
Cage Rage 23 - 6th in Points
DREAM 2 -6th in Points
Secondary League Season 3 - 12th in Points
IFL - New Jersey - 18th in Points
Affliction: Banned - 18th in Wagers
Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale - 20th in Wagers
EXC: Kimbo vs. Tank - 26th in Wagers
WEC 30 - 27th in Wagers
Secondary League Season 1 - 31st in Points
Secondary League Season 4 - 50th in Points
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Post #7 7/19/08 2:37:22AM
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Got Head!
Career record: 148-62
Season: 14-7 (#578)
Location: Oklahoma
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Posted by Svartorm
Lil nog vs. Dewees 90%-10%
I don't know about that Dewees could break out the fountain of blood on Lil Nog  .
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Anxiously awaiting Scott "The Pit Bull" Ferrozzo's return.
The only way to prove that you're a good sport is to lose.
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Post #8 7/19/08 9:27:48AM
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Hammer of the Mods
Career record: 183-114
Season: 15-6 (#543)
Location: Hudson, NH
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Where do you think I got 10% from? You don't think Dewees is actually going to hit him, do you? 
_______________________________________
All brave men with hearts of war, ride the path of mighty Thor.
MMAplaygrounds resident gun nut.
DREAM 1 - 2nd in Points
Cage Rage 23 - 6th in Points
DREAM 2 -6th in Points
Secondary League Season 3 - 12th in Points
IFL - New Jersey - 18th in Points
Affliction: Banned - 18th in Wagers
Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale - 20th in Wagers
EXC: Kimbo vs. Tank - 26th in Wagers
WEC 30 - 27th in Wagers
Secondary League Season 1 - 31st in Points
Secondary League Season 4 - 50th in Points
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Post #9 7/19/08 12:27:46PM
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Go vegan or die
Career record: 107-51
Season: 14-7 (#644)
Location: Newcastle, UK
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Posted by Mayhem13
personally I wouldnt put
Belfort, Arlovski, and Babalu all in a parlay..as I am pretty sure atleast 1 of the 3 will lose.
those fights are a lot closer then the odds show, and all 3 fighters are kind of unreliable at times...
Its not that im doubting Renatos skills, its just Mike Whitehead is pretty under rated becouse of his poor showing on the ultimate fighter and his ufc bout with Keith Jardine.
As for Vitor, he hasnt been a safe bet in a long time becouse you never no which vitors going to show up. Then add on the fact Martin has very good power, it makes it a risky bet imo.
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"There is not a sports drink formulated by any scientist that will hydrate you more than your own urine. When it comes to fight time, the day of my fight I don't eat a single thing — all I do is drink my own urine until I defecate pure urine. That's how I know that my digestive system is completely empty."
Myspace
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Post #10 7/19/08 12:38:01PM
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Hammer of the Mods
Career record: 183-114
Season: 15-6 (#543)
Location: Hudson, NH
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Wish I'd bet on this card instead of the UFC one. A ten fight parlay would have been amazing money, even if all the favorites won.
_______________________________________
All brave men with hearts of war, ride the path of mighty Thor.
MMAplaygrounds resident gun nut.
DREAM 1 - 2nd in Points
Cage Rage 23 - 6th in Points
DREAM 2 -6th in Points
Secondary League Season 3 - 12th in Points
IFL - New Jersey - 18th in Points
Affliction: Banned - 18th in Wagers
Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale - 20th in Wagers
EXC: Kimbo vs. Tank - 26th in Wagers
WEC 30 - 27th in Wagers
Secondary League Season 1 - 31st in Points
Secondary League Season 4 - 50th in Points
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Post #11 7/20/08 5:15:31AM
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