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The unpopular opinion. Why Fedor can lose to Tim Slyvia,and vice versa.

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mrsmiley

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Now i'm not making a thread to bitch about Fedor and make claims to why he's not the best heavy-weight in the world,and say he's fought weak competition.
I believe Fedor is still the best P4P in the world.He just needs 2 or 3 solid wins against solid competition to remind everyone.But I have to be realistic for a minute.Without using an ounce of favirotism,I want to go through and analyze what "could" actualy happen in this fight.

On Fedors behalf:

1.His solid ground game.Looking back at some of Slyvia's fights,it's painfuly obvious his ground game is damn near obsolete.I mean Semmy Shilt fights better of his back than Sylvia,and Shilt spends more time kickboxing than he does in MMA.I think it's a safe bet that if Fedor gets Tim to the mat this could be over real fast with some very brutal ground N pound,or with a very slick submission.

2.The Ring.I joke that when I herd Fedor was fighting for Affliction that " I automaticly knew they were going to be using a ring."
But in all honesty,I can picture Fedor Sizing Slyvia up for about 30-40 seconds,coming in for the clinch,bouncing Tim off the ropes,then using the momentum to take him to the mat.

3. This fight will be 5 rounds.When they first announced this I was thinking Fedor could be in trouble.If Slyvia is able to use his reach to his advantage,and keep Fedor at bay,he could eek out a decesion win.However,they are now fighting for the Wamma title,and the bout will be 5 rounds.I believe this will be in favor of Fedor.


On Tims behalf

1.The size advantage.Though I have criticized his ground game,he more than makes up for it with his stand up.If Tim actualy comes out to fight,and not just to play it safe and hope for a decesion,he could expose Fedors stand-up,and makes this a long,long,night for our Russian friend.Fedor has fought a bigger opponent in Hong Man Choi,but I think it's a safe bet to assume Slyvia's stand up far surpasses Choi's.

2.Fedor bleeds.If Tim can keep this standing,and actualy use the ring to "HIS" advantage,which he might just be able to pull off,it's not a far off assumption to say he could cut Fedor open.Though us fans often talk about how slow and sluggish Sylvia is,he can throw some slick bombs when he wants.Enough solid shots to Fedors face could prove to become a huge upset stoppage due to bleeding.

3. The failure of MMA math.Okay,I will admit this is somewhat of a weak reason on Tims behalf,but it does make me wonder.MMA math doesn't seem to work well at all.
Example:

Quinton Jackson over Chuck Liddell
Wanderlei Silva over Quinton Jackson
Chuck Liddell over Wanderlie Silva

Kazushi Sakuraba over Dong Sik Yoon
Dong Sik Yoon over Melvin Manhoef
Melvin Manhoef over Kazushi Sakuraba

Fedor over Nogueria
Nogueria over Slyvia
Slyvia over Fedor

Could it be next??????

Thoughts opinions??

Post #1   7/13/08 8:49:37PM   

jomatty

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a few thoughts...

sylvia's ground game is far from obsolete. watch his fight with monson. he is no ground wizard but he works hard at his sub defense. he is much better on the ground than schilt.

also what makes you think his stand up is better than hon man choi's? he has some very impressive stand up credentials and it is not just his size that makes him tough...

all in all i think htis is a dangerous fight for fedor but as long as he comes in as good as he is capable then i think he wins it one way or another...

Post #2   7/13/08 9:43:34PM   

mrsmiley

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Yeah after writing that about Choi I hesitated for a minute,but then I went ahead and posted it anyway.

As for his ground game,I can't say i'm soley basing it off both of Shilts performances against both Fedor and Nog,but depending on how bad Fedor might make Tim look on the ground may make me believe it more.

Last edited 7/13/08 9:48PM server time by mrsmiley
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Post #3   7/13/08 9:47:04PM   

Jackelope

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Fedor can lose, but I believe there's more ways to look at it-

Fedor has never fought someone Tim Sylvia's size with Tim Sylvia's stand up ability and with Tim Sylvia's takedown defense. Believe it or not the cage is actually better for assisting with takedowns than ropes are. Ropes don't rebound the entirety of the mass bounced against them because only a small portion of the body actually touches the ropes. A cage accepts the entire body and rebounds it because there is more surface area.

On the flip side of this, the cage makes it easier to get up from a takedown than ropes do. You can place your entire back against the cage and walk up. Obviously with ropes, again due to the small surface area, this isn't the case.

A ring with corners favors the taller man. With reach and footwork the corner of a ring can work as a box for taller strikers to place their opponents into.

Some of Fedor's advantages-

Fedor favors the clinch takedown, which is good against a taller striker like Tim Sylvia. If Fedor can get inside of Fedor's reach he can take away most of his power and expose his long frame for a trip style takedown. There's no question Fedor's Judo is on a level that will allow him to put this into action.

Sylvia's long limbs and poor hip control from the top put him at a natural disadvantage for arm submissions, which Fedor has 9 of his 14 submissions by.

My prediction is a Fedor 2nd or 3rd round arm submission. Sylvia will look good at the beginning of the fight, but Fedor's work ethic, overhand rights, and clinch takedowns will put the fight on the ground with Sylvia gassed. Sylvia will gain top position, and Fedor will sub from the bottom.

Last edited 7/14/08 10:39PM server time by Jackelope
Edit note/reason: accidentally called Judo BJJ

Post #4   7/13/08 10:07:37PM   

EON

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Sylvia needs to inject his gloves with titanium or brass knucks and he still might get armbarred.

Post #5   7/14/08 1:31:09AM   

AchillesHeel

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Posted by mrsmiley

1.If Tim actualy comes out to fight,and not just to play it safe and hope for a decesion,he could expose Fedors stand-up


Your "if" is a very big if. First, Sylvia's whole fighting style is predicated on playing it safe. He's fought his last several fights that way, and there's simply nothing to suggest he'll play this one any differently. Second, Fedor's standup is very good and isn't likely to be "exposed."

Also, I don't think it's safe to assume that Syvlia's standup is better than Choi's. Sylvia is a better MMA fighter than Choi. He has better takedown and submission defense, which is part of his cautious approach in striking.


Posted by mrsmiley

2.If Tim can keep this standing,and actualy use the ring to "HIS" advantage,which he might just be able to pull off,it's not a far off assumption to say he could cut Fedor open.


There's your "big if" again. I don't see Sylvia dictating the pace or position of this fight. Unless Sylvia has turned over a new leaf, he'll be on his back foot from the first minute, and a lucky cut is his only chance to win.


Posted by mrsmiley

3. The failure of MMA math


MMAth doesn't work very well, and reverse-MMAth doesn't either. Looking at a future opponent's wins and losses, and common opponents, can help with style analysis. Like most math, if you use it wrong, it will give you the wrong answer. In a cursory analysis of the two men's records, I don't see anything that favors Sylvia.

I do have one thing to offer in Tim's defense, although it's an advantage his fighting style doesn't exploit: He has an excellent chin. I'll be shocked if Fedor KO'd Sylvia. As someone else already mentioned, the more likely thing that could happen would be for Tim to get knocked down by a punch and then submitted once he's on the ground. Like I say, though, he needs to become a different type of fighter.

Post #6   7/14/08 11:26:45AM   

Gipper

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fedor can lose to tim because tim needs only one big strike and he know's how to finish. sylvia deserves some more respect he has been a top 5 hw for a long time now.
tim can lose because he's fightig the best and most danderous fighter ever.

Post #7   7/14/08 1:25:47PM   

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Tim has always been criticized, but make no mistake, he is Fedor's greatest challenge since Mirko in his prime.

Don't forget let's apply some submission MMA math.

Sem Schilt

Barnett subbed him
Nog subbed him
Fedor did not sub him

Does this alone make Barnett and Nog better fighters, of course not, it just might mean that their a little trickier with MMA submissions.

But Tim's sub defense is much better than Schilt's and I think Fedor will either win this by a close decision or get knocked out.

Post #8   7/14/08 2:29:10PM   

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Rickson by Armbar.

Post #9   7/15/08 12:38:40AM   

ICSlegend

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Posted by Purge

Tim has always been criticized, but make no mistake, he is Fedor's greatest challenge since Mirko in his prime.

Don't forget let's apply some submission MMA math.

Sem Schilt

Barnett subbed him
Nog subbed him
Fedor did not sub him

Does this alone make Barnett and Nog better fighters, of course not, it just might mean that their a little trickier with MMA submissions.

But Tim's sub defense is much better than Schilt's and I think Fedor will either win this by a close decision or get knocked out.



I still think Choi and Lindland were A LOT more dangerous. Not ranked HW contenders, but still. Choi gave Fedor problems (some big hits and landed on top on takedowns). If he could defend armbars he might have just demolished Fedor. And Lindland put up a decent fight as well. I just don't see how Tim poses Fedor any problems.

Your MMA math is flawed.

Schilt was Fedor's first "full rules" MMA fight in PRIDE, and he had only been doing RINGS for about 2 years as well. He also didn't have any World Sambo titles at the time either. He has evolved on all levels of MMA since then.

Fedor now would probably sub Schilt just like Nog and Barnett (who were much more experienced when they fought Schilt).

What do you base Fedor winning this by close decision. When was the last time Fedor won a "close" decision. I think CC took it to him hard, but he gassed and couldn't finish. No way Big Tim's gastank is better than Fedor's. And Fedor has never been KO'd either. If Randleman couldn't do it with that slam...I doubt anything Big Tim will do will either. Choi hit Fedor as well (leaving huge welts) and Fedor was fine. Choi hits harder then Tim.

Last edited 7/15/08 1:12AM server time by icslegend
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Post #10   7/15/08 1:10:50AM   

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Posted by ICSlegend


Posted by Purge

Tim has always been criticized, but make no mistake, he is Fedor's greatest challenge since Mirko in his prime.

Don't forget let's apply some submission MMA math.

Sem Schilt

Barnett subbed him
Nog subbed him
Fedor did not sub him

Does this alone make Barnett and Nog better fighters, of course not, it just might mean that their a little trickier with MMA submissions.

But Tim's sub defense is much better than Schilt's and I think Fedor will either win this by a close decision or get knocked out.



[quote]IIf Randleman couldn't do it with that slam...I doubt anything Big Tim will do will either. Choi hit Fedor as well (leaving huge welts) and Fedor was fine. Choi hits harder then Tim.



Who's to say Fedor will be as durable a back then, bodies change and Fedor hasn't looked as invincible as he used too in his last 2 fights.

Post #11   7/15/08 8:17:34AM   

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Posted by Purge

Who's to say Fedor will be as durable a back then, bodies change and Fedor hasn't looked as invincible as he used too in his last 2 fights.



And who's to say Fedor won't look even better?

Eh, screw it. Fedor looked about the same. Tim just isn't in his league and it showed.

Like I said - Choi and Lindland were tougher tests.

Everyone discredited Choi, but it is laughable to compare Tim's striking to Choi's, as was evident. Choi almost killed Fedor with powerful shots. Tim wasn't even good enough to land one blow.

I hope Tim learned his lesson about all that nonsense he was talking about Fedor not facing as good a striker as him

Last edited 7/20/08 1:35AM server time by icslegend
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Post #12   7/20/08 1:34:17AM   

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Truth be told, im glad I picked and wagered on Fedor, he made me some good money.

Post #13   7/20/08 4:51:56AM