Someone please explain why Gleison Tibau is a +600 underdog?! |
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Mayhem13
MMA Sensei
Career record: 130-81
Season: 20-10 (#633)
Location: Ohio
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Diaz was in about as much trouble as Fedor was when Hunt ad him almost in a Kimura/Americana ...
and I am not taking anything away from Gleison, I agree the odds are off, but I would still pu thim at +250 atleast..... he hasnt proven himself against enough big names to justify bieng the favorite against Grffin.
I dont think you are looking at it in an unbias way...your obviously a big Gleison fan, and thats cool...but you have to look at things from an unbias perspective when having these discussions.
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Post #16 1/27/08 1:51:12PM
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Who are you?
Career record: 176-104
Season: 19-11 (#1397)
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Posted by aegion
If you look at all of Tyson Griffin's fights in the ufc minus the David Lee fight there were moments where he was in trouble in all of those fights, and where smaller people like Clay Guida and Frankie Edgar couldn't take full advantage of those situations someone like Gleison Tibau who is one of the biggest lightweights will be able to. Griffin isn't going to be able to shake him off as easily as he did those other guys.
I also want to add that Tibau almost tapped Nick Diaz with a Kimura. Diaz didn't just walk through him.
Nobody's saying that Tibau doesn't have a shot, but rather that Griffin is and should be the favorite to win.
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Post #17 1/27/08 1:53:03PM
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Hammer of the Mods
Career record: 190-116
Season: 22-8 (#264)
Location: Hudson, NH
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We calculate our odds from the picks people make, rather than using a sports book, which is why our odds will sometimes be much different than the sportsbooks. Do you think Tibau wins this fight more than 1 out of 6 times? Then put some money on him.
As for your arguments aegion, there are more holes in them than I'd care to address. Suffice to say, MMath doesn't work and most of the fighters you're comparing cross weightclasses and have completely dissimilar styles.
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Post #18 1/27/08 9:47:16PM
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emfleek
MMA Sensei
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Career record: 97-52
Season: 23-7 (#297)
Location: Fort Wayne, IN
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I'd keep my mouth shut (as to not let anyone else in on the "secret") and put a fat wager on the guy if I were that confident.
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Post #19 1/27/08 9:52:45PM
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aegion
Learning to Sprawl
Career record: 103-90
Season: 20-10 (#467)
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I'd keep my mouth shut (as to not let anyone else in on the "secret") and put a fat wager on the guy if I were that confident.
I am putting all my money on him. I don't care about keeping it secret since it isn't real money.
Tyson Griffin's only chance is to keep it standing in my opinion. If it hits the ground Tibau is too big and strong for him. And even if they were the same size, all things being equal Tibau is better at Brazilian Jiu Jitsu than Griffin is at wrestling.
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Post #20 1/27/08 10:03:20PM
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He's Back...
Career record: 163-86
Season: 0-0 (#8174)
Location: Sacramento, CA
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Posted by aegion
Tyson Griffin built his fame by beating Thiago Tavares....
Nah, Griffin got his name by beating Urijah Faber...
Posted by aegion
Beating a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy is more impressive than beating a guy who beat a guy.
Is this a riddle? Kind of like the Woodchuck chucking wood thing?
Last edited 1/29/08 12:17PM by rcg916
Edit note/reason: n/a
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Post #21 1/29/08 12:15:23PM
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Pookie
MMA Sensei
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Career record: 174-81
Season: 23-7 (#344)
Location: 707
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Posted by aegion
Beating a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy is more impressive than beating a guy who beat a guy.
Hmmm... this is a tough one as it in all honestly doesnt make any sense but...
While trying to decipher this code i found that i disagree.
Beating a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy is LESS impressive than beating a guy who beat a guy.
If the starting point is of importance than the less amount of fighters you have to go through in your chain to get to the last fighter is much more impressive.
There's less of a chance for a bad stoppage, a shady decision, or a bad stylistic match-up for one of the fights in question.
Having a smaller amount of fighters in the scenario actually gives the scenario a chance to make sense, if the guy who beat a guy fights very similar to the guy that beat him, then you could say the guy who beat him could beat the guy that the original guy in question beat. As they come into the fight with the same skill set it makes some sense.
Saying a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy whobeat a guy is more impressive is ludicrous. theres 4 fights in that scenario, that means that the winner of all 4 matches had to have similar/identical styles. If that chain is broken anywhere than you have to throw out the equation, as it does become MMAMath and it is longer sensical.
In conclusion the less amount of degrees of seperation equates to more if everybody but the original loser fights identically.
But of course that is never the case (ever), so in essence niether equations mean anything. But still... you know what i mean.
 
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Post #22 1/29/08 6:42:37PM
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Got Head!
Career record: 155-64
Season: 21-9 (#312)
Location: Oklahoma
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Way to much MMAth going on here. It never has worked and I don't expect it to start working.
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Post #23 1/29/08 8:16:28PM
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Finally...
Career record: 105-62
Season: 21-9 (#280)
Location: selden, new york
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he is a +600 underdog because 93% of the people on this site picked tyson griffin...that is your answer.
the reason so many people picked against him? because tyson is in the limelight more and even though it will be a close fight imo, a lot of people just picked griffin to win the close fight; enough to make it as lopsided as 93:7.
Last edited 1/29/08 9:09PM by jiujitsufreak74
Edit note/reason: n/a
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Post #24 1/29/08 9:09:17PM
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Wins Fairly Squarely
Career record: 180-109
Season: 19-11 (#733)
Location: Cornwall, UK
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Yeah well i think the point he is really making is that Tibau SHOULDNT be a +600 underdog! And thats true, i dont think using the picks is a fair way of calculating odds tbh, certainly not realistic! IMO the odds should always be closer so people dont make silly money on a few dogs, tho thats kinda already happened with ufc 80 and the guys with tens of thousands of $$$ should be able to hold out for the season 
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Post #25 2/1/08 10:37:13AM
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nellyhiphophead
In Full Mount
Career record: 201-106
Season: 25-5 (#54)
Location: nelson b.c canada
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yeah i think it's a loser fight then that line also.
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Post #26 2/1/08 12:07:52PM
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Hit me with those laser beams!
Career record: 208-99
Season: 25-5 (#9)
Location: Morrison, CO
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Posted by CornishMMA
Yeah well i think the point he is really making is that Tibau SHOULDNT be a +600 underdog! And thats true, i dont think using the picks is a fair way of calculating odds tbh, certainly not realistic! IMO the odds should always be closer so people dont make silly money on a few dogs, tho thats kinda already happened with ufc 80 and the guys with tens of thousands of $$$ should be able to hold out for the season
I COMPLETELY agree! 
You have guys at the top of the earners list just by making crazy underdog picks on even crazier odds! A lot of them don't even pick most of the fights...they're just coming in here and putting all of their money on an underdog with crazy +600 odds (like Tibau) I think the odds should be closer to the real odds (Tibau is around +270 in the betting world) It's absolutely crazy to have him a +600 IMO
Last edited 2/1/08 12:31PM by npayant
Edit note/reason: n/a
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Post #27 2/1/08 12:31:02PM
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Hit me with those laser beams!
Career record: 208-99
Season: 25-5 (#9)
Location: Morrison, CO
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Posted by Svartorm
We calculate our odds from the picks people make, rather than using a sports book, which is why our odds will sometimes be much different than the sportsbooks.
If odds are caculated by who people pick on this site, then why is Mir the favorite according to the odds (even though it's close) when more people have picked Lesnar to win??  52%:48%
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Accolades:
UFC 70: Nations Collide: 18 points #2978 out of 3669
UFC 81: Breaking Point: 28 points #5248 out of 7305
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Post #28 2/1/08 12:37:29PM
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Goldenrod Off-topic mod
Career record: 177-118
Season: 17-13 (#2789)
Location: NL, Canada
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Posted by aegion
Ok, so Terry Etim wasn't a "decent name"?! He was on 10 fight undefeated winning streak before Tibau beat him, and it was a very dominant performance, the fight is on Megaupload check it out.
Terry Etim was 1-0 in the UFC. the guy he beat was also a newcomer in Matt Grice. Terry didnt have any top 10 wins let alone top 20. Not to knock the guy, but just because you are undefeated doesnt mean you are the best in the world. Being undefeated basically means you havent fought anyone awesome yet. No champ in the UFC or Pride has got there without at least one loss.
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Post #29 2/1/08 2:39:02PM
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He's Back...
Career record: 163-86
Season: 0-0 (#8174)
Location: Sacramento, CA
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Posted by npayant
Posted by Svartorm
We calculate our odds from the picks people make, rather than using a sports book, which is why our odds will sometimes be much different than the sportsbooks.
If odds are caculated by who people pick on this site, then why is Mir the favorite according to the odds (even though it's close) when more people have picked Lesnar to win?? 52%:48%
Im sure they set the line a while back, and since then a few opinions have swung the other way...
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Post #30 2/1/08 2:59:55PM
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