Someone please explain why Gleison Tibau is a +600 underdog?! |
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aegion
Learning to Sprawl
Career record: 129-104
Season: 46-24 (#388)
Location:
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Can someone explain this to me? I'm not an expert by any means but this seems illogical. Even if you think Tyson Griffin will beat him why this much?
Personally I think Gleison should be the favorite. Here's why: Tyson Griffin built his fame by beating Thiago Tavares, Tyson's split decision win over Clay Guida is bullshit and we all know Guida won. So it was beating Thiago Tavares which really put Griffin on the map since it was an exciting fight and even got fight of the night. Now, Thiago Tavares got famous because he beat Jason Black on a fight night, Jason Black was beaten by Matt Grice who was beaten by Terry Etim who was beaten by Gleison Tibau.
Beating a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy is more impressive than beating a guy who beat a guy. Tibau is a HUGE lightweight and I think he'll throw Griffin to the mat like a ragdoll.
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Post #1 1/27/08 9:02:54AM
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Tha Truth
Career record: 100-71
Season: 35-35 (#3659)
Location: Ft. Sill Ok
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If you take a look at who he has fought lately that explains itself. The only person who is a decent name was diaz which he lost by TKO in the second round. After that match he went 4-0 which is not bad but 2 where but decision and 1 submission and 1 KO. He did not go agaist nobody to though in those 4 matches. Now tyson the other hand has fought some top 10 fighters i would say in his weight class. He did very well agaist his last 4 oppoents. and went 3-1 and had some wars and pulled off the big victories agaist some very skilled fighters. That is why Glesion is such an underdog because he has not proven himself yet.
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Post #2 1/27/08 10:03:25AM
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aegion
Learning to Sprawl
Career record: 129-104
Season: 46-24 (#388)
Location:
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Ok, so Terry Etim wasn't a "decent name"?! He was on 10 fight undefeated winning streak before Tibau beat him, and it was a very dominant performance, the fight is on Megaupload check it out.
Yeah he lost to Nick Diaz, but that fight was at welterweight. In fact, every loss Tibua has was at welterweight. You do realize this is a lightweight fight right?
"tyson the other hand has fought some top 10 fighters i would say in his weight class"
What? Who has Tyson fought that's top ten besides Urijah Faber who is a 145 pounder? He lost to Clay Guida and Frankie Edgar, but wait...he beat Thiago Tavares! That makes him a -640 againt Tibau! Just for clarification is this the same Tavares that just got tooled by Michihiro Omigawa who was supposed to be a gimme fight for him? Or is there another Thiago Tavares, a fighter with the same name that's some kind of bad ass and would justify the hype Tyson Griffin is getting now?
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Post #3 1/27/08 10:21:56AM
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fedorwins1
MMA Sensei
Career record: 235-112
Season: 47-23 (#333)
Location: Amish Country aka Pennsylvania
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I think Tibau should win this fight, he's bigger and has a better ground game IMO.
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Post #4 1/27/08 10:42:26AM
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Mayhem13
MMA Sensei
Career record: 158-93
Season: 48-22 (#232)
Location: Ohio
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I dont htink Tyson is most known for beating Tavares, I would say he is most known for beating Urijah Faber, Then Guida, then Tavares....anyways your this guy beat this guy who beat this guy who knows this guys trainer and fought his instructor thing doesnt work.
MMATH is completely unreliable.... thats like saying the whole, Chuck loss to Rampage, who loss to Wanderlei, who loss to Henderson, Who loss to Rampage, who beat Chuck (again), who beat Wanderlei... it doesnt mean anything.,..different fighters match up different against each other..
I think Griffin is the favorite in this fight, and should win.
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Post #5 1/27/08 11:23:26AM
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fedorwins1
MMA Sensei
Career record: 235-112
Season: 47-23 (#333)
Location: Amish Country aka Pennsylvania
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Another thing to think about is the striking. Tibau doesn't have amazing striking, but he's no slouch either and he has a damn good flying knee; when Tyson tries to shoot in he might get caught with a BIG KNEE
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Post #6 1/27/08 11:31:04AM
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aegion
Learning to Sprawl
Career record: 129-104
Season: 46-24 (#388)
Location:
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"anyways your this guy beat this guy who beat this guy who knows this guys trainer and fought his instructor thing doesnt work."
It's not that convoluted. And it's not really MMath either. All I'm saying is we all agree there are levels of skill right? And taking Jason Black as a starting point, we have two guys who beat him which but them one level of skill above him, and so on, and you see that Tibau has actually beat someone higher in skill than Thiago Tavares when he beat Terry Etim.
Known for beating Guida? More like known for losing and getting a bad decision going in his favor.
I thin part of the reason people have made Tyson Griffin such a favorite could be they equate exciting fight with winning. That's MMath, not what I'm saying. Just like everyone started counting Werdum out because he had 1 boring decision. Also Tibau has been mostly in unaired prelims, and if people don't know a fighter they tend to bet against them.
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Post #7 1/27/08 11:38:18AM
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Hit me with those laser beams!
Career record: 236-111
Season: 53-17 (#11)
Location: Morrison, CO
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You'll learn that this site always has whacked out odds...Tibau definitely shouldn't be a +600 (ex. Brock Lesnar is actually the favorite on real betting sites and Tim Sylvia is only about a +150)
I usually just go find the REAL odds that are out there. In a couple of days you'll be able to see the betting odds for this fight and I guarantee he won't be that big of an underdog...he will be an underdog...but not a +600
In saying all of this, Tyson should win this fight...he's proven that he can put on a very tough fight against good competition.
Last edited 1/27/08 11:49AM by npayant
Edit note/reason: n/a
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Accolades:
UFC 70: Nations Collide: 18 points #2978 out of 3669
UFC 81: Breaking Point: 28 points #5248 out of 7305
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Post #8 1/27/08 11:42:59AM
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aegion
Learning to Sprawl
Career record: 129-104
Season: 46-24 (#388)
Location:
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Another thing to think about is the striking. Tibau doesn't have amazing striking, but he's no slouch either and he has a damn good flying knee; when Tyson tries to shoot in he might get caught with a BIG KNEE
He loves the flying knee, it's like one of his signature moves.
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Post #9 1/27/08 11:43:57AM
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Kimbo Slice's Punchout!
Career record: 204-116
Season: 47-23 (#163)
Location:
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Posted by aegion
"anyways your this guy beat this guy who beat this guy who knows this guys trainer and fought his instructor thing doesnt work."
It's not that convoluted. And it's not really MMath either. All I'm saying is we all agree there are levels of skill right? And taking Jason Black as a starting point, we have two guys who beat him which but them one level of skill above him, and so on, and you see that Tibau has actually beat someone higher in skill than Thiago Tavares when he beat Terry Etim.
Known for beating Guida? More like known for losing and getting a bad decision going in his favor.
I thin part of the reason people have made Tyson Griffin such a favorite could be they equate exciting fight with winning. That's MMath, not what I'm saying. Just like everyone started counting Werdum out because he had 1 boring decision. Also Tibau has been mostly in unaired prelims, and if people don't know a fighter they tend to bet against them.
I'm not sure the betting odds are on the money, but Griffin should definitely be the favorite. He is the only person ever to defeat Faber. Although Faber is a FW, you can't discredit a win that big. He also has wins over Guida and Tavares...you can say what you want about the Guida decision, but the fact that he had close fights with both of those guys is very credible.
Tibau is a pretty decent fighter, but the fact remains that he doesn't have any notable victories. To compare Terry Etim to Thiago Tavares is ludicrous. Tarares has had one disappointing fight, but has been phenominal in all the rest. While Etim is no scrub, he has not proven anything in the big leagues yet.
And for the record, MMA math has nothing to do with how exciting a fight is.
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It's lose, not loose!
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Post #10 1/27/08 12:11:44PM
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aegion
Learning to Sprawl
Career record: 129-104
Season: 46-24 (#388)
Location:
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Although Faber is a FW, you can't discredit a win that big.
I think it does discredit it. It's just like Lyoto Machida beating BJ Penn. If it's a fight where they're clearly two different weight classes then it doesn't mean as much if the bigger fighter wins. And weight differences count more in the smaller weight classes also.
To compare Terry Etim to Thiago Tavares is ludicrous.
Is it really? I'll give you that maybe Etim is not better than Tavares but merely equal. No way is Etim below Tavares. Because who has Tavares beat? Jason Black is his biggest win. Who beat Jason Black? Matt Grice. And Terry Etim beat Matt Grice.
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Post #11 1/27/08 12:31:03PM
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Mayhem13
MMA Sensei
Career record: 158-93
Season: 48-22 (#232)
Location: Ohio
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alright Gleison, we understand that you beat Etim, who beat Grice, who Beat Black, got beat by Tavares, who got beat by Griffin...we do, and we appreciate the fact that you came here to tell us that, and let us know how confident you are. thank you, but I am sticking with my pick.
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Post #12 1/27/08 12:42:29PM
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Kimbo Slice's Punchout!
Career record: 204-116
Season: 47-23 (#163)
Location:
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Posted by aegion
Is it really? I'll give you that maybe Etim is not better than Tavares but merely equal. No way is Etim below Tavares. Because who has Tavares beat? Jason Black is his biggest win. Who beat Jason Black? Matt Grice. And Terry Etim beat Matt Grice.
Again, MMA math proves nothing...and you are using a common defeated opponent, so it really proves nothing.
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It's lose, not loose!
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Post #13 1/27/08 12:56:05PM
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Obey The Stank-Nasty
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Career record: 144-84
Season: 43-26 (#1754)
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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Tyson = Favorite
Tibau = dog food
Etim < Tavares (we've seen both of their ground games)
And finally none of this or the odd matter cause it just two warriors going at each other with everything they got, so it should be an exciting fight... thats my MMAth
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Rest In Peace Evan Tanner...
Props To Grappler0000 for making the Stank-A-Tar
Bas "El Guapo" Rutten: "Godspeed and Party On"
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Post #14 1/27/08 1:24:04PM
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aegion
Learning to Sprawl
Career record: 129-104
Season: 46-24 (#388)
Location:
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If you look at all of Tyson Griffin's fights in the ufc minus the David Lee fight there were moments where he was in trouble in all of those fights, and where smaller people like Clay Guida and Frankie Edgar couldn't take full advantage of those situations someone like Gleison Tibau who is one of the biggest lightweights will be able to. Griffin isn't going to be able to shake him off as easily as he did those other guys.
I also want to add that Tibau almost tapped Nick Diaz with a Kimura. Diaz didn't just walk through him.
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Post #15 1/27/08 1:39:46PM
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