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P4P Rankings from a pyschological point of view

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as the months go on and the struggle for P4P supremacy continues, one can only realize the general pattern behind who the MMA public thinks is deserving of the title best P4P fighter. to understand what i am going to talk about in this thread you must first understand certain terms that i will use. first, a heuristic is a way that humans solve problems using short cuts that find an answer faster but are more error prone. for example, to solve a problem that states , "rearrange these letters to form an English word: GSPYYOLOHC" a heuristic for solving the problem would be applying words that you know that fit the criteria and using the rules of the English language instead of using an algorithm and trying the thousands of possibilities that these letters can be arranged until you find an answer, which is PSYCHOLOGY. we solve most of our problems using heuristics and it is the reason we solve problems the way that we do. now, there are certain types of heuristics that humans use. the one i will be talking about in this thread are availability heuristics. an availability heuristic is when you judge the probability of an event occurring based on how readily available it is in your memory. for example, if you were a victim of theft, you would think it was more likely to occur than someone who has not been a victim of theft. So now that i went over the background of what i am going to say, i will continue with my observation.

OK, so now lets go over the P4P rankings. I have noticed that after a certain fighter has recently fought, and won, their P4P increases. there is nothing abnormal about that, but it is who they increase over that i find interesting. for example, when Anderson Silva had just come off of his second victory over Rich Franklin, everyone held him to be the number one P4P fighter in the world. for weeks and months it was all about how Silva can beat anyone in the division, how there was absolutely no chink in his armor. no one could defeat this machine. there were countless topics of how he will continue to dominate the competition and whether he should move up or not. however, as the months passed by, he became less and less unstoppable and now Dan Henderson has a great chance to beat him. but even still, he was still considered the number one P4P fighter. now, with all of this Silva championing, along comes GSP and his fight with Matt Hughes. after two straight months of everyone proclaiming Silva to be the undisputed P4P fighter, GSP comes out and wipes the floor with Matt Hughes. after that fight, the public turned from saying Silva is the best, to saying that GSP is now unbeatable, how no one in any division can stop him, how he can move up to MW and beat the once unbeatable Silva. what the MMA public was using was an availability heuristic.

Right after Silva dismantled Franklin, it was readily available in all of our minds how utterly destructive Silva is. however, once a few months passed by and GSP then destroyed Matt Hughes, it was GSP's prowess that was readily available. this has been going on for a while, when Rampage beat Chuck, everyone was saying he was P4P best, then came Silva, and finally now GSP. The fighter who is coming off the most recent win usually gets more votes then they should because our thinking is skewed due to availability heuristics. This concept also goes beyond P4P, as it also goes with fighter hype and predictions that make you look back and say, "why did i pick him to win?"

i am going to use GG as an example. in his fight with Werdum, many people picked him to win. now, the reason that we all did was because we were using availability heuristics which told s that GG is a solid striker who KOed CC and Werdum is just a boring fighter who lost a decision to AA. most of us, however, forgot how Werdum beat GG the first time and how their styles match up in favor of Werdum. we forgot that before CC, GG was not considered a solid striker and that he hasn't done anything to prove that he his ever since. now, i know i am using hindsight bias in proclaiming that it wasn't a good move to pick GG against Werdum, but the point about availability heuristics is still valid.

and finally (if you read up to this point) i will talk about Kimbo and other fighters of the kind. after his fight yesterday with Tank, everyone can not stop talking about him and are already making claims that he could be top 10 soon. the same thing happened with Lesnar, i am sure the mods remember all of the crap we got after Lesnar's fight. same goes with Mir in that fight. We were all using the availability heuristic to make them seem better than they really are. right after his fight, Lesnar was acclaimed to be a force at HW, well i don't think you can say he is a force until he actually beats someone first. and Mir, he beat a guy with one win in MMA and now he is said to be back to where he is.

To prove whether availability heuristics really distort our judgment on picking fights, the Shogun vs Chuck fight will be a perfect example. if Shogun is more than a +200 underdog and people are picking against him, and then he comes out and beats Chuck, then it is attributable to availability heuristics that we all picked Chuck because we all remembered the Chuck that beat Wandy and the Shogun that lost to Forrest.

there are hundreds of fights that can prove the effect of availability heuristics and it should be something you should consider when picking your P4P rankings or when choosing a fight. If you know of its distortions, then you can try and fight its effects and make your picks more logically, i know i will from now on

if you read all of this, i really appreciate you taking the time to hear me out

Post #1   2/17/08 4:45:21PM   

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good post.

the counter-arguement of course is that "you must rank based on what the fighter has done lately"(funny, because its sort of saying the same thing you are) which although seems to make alot of sense, i don't agree with for a variety of reasons.

But in conclusion i agree with you

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Post #2   2/17/08 4:59:40PM   

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Your post is quite well written though i must say that not everyone is saying that lesner is a force in the HW devision, personally i think he CAN be if he trains properly and diligently, same goes for Kimbo, hes no where near it yet but if he sticks with el guapo he could very well be top ten in the future. Anyway i really liked your post and it was quite a good read. I will keep in mind the things you have said when making my picks in the future

Post #3   2/17/08 5:01:47PM   

tuvok500

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Silva did not suddenly appear on top of the P4P ranking , he was there top 3 for a while and after his second win to rich he moved up 1 or 2 spot witch is perfectly normal and logical, of course if a guy was having Silva #10 P4P and he moved him up to #1, it is not normal.
Same for GSP, he was for me always in the top 3 P4P and it is always a back and forth between him and Silva, as for Rampage i don't understand how he can be ranked in the # 3 P4P no matter what.

A P4P ranking is normally only imaginary and it is base on a lot of factors witch include how do you love the guy, good example CC is still in the top 3 P4P of a lot of peoples , witch is not base on reality of 2008.

As for GG example, it is clear that you don't like the guy, and because of that you denied him everything he did in JJ before MMA.
And the fact that Werdum beated him a month ago is not a reason to claim that the logic choice was Werdum because he beated GG a couple of years ago.
If that thing was working, Prater would have beated Condit easily last week !!

As for kimbo, i don't see him in the top 100 HW , so , i am not in his wagon !!

And Chuck will KO Shogun, just wait and see, it is not base on the Forrest fight it is base on style and logic only, Shogun will not be able to clinch to use his knee, he will be severely punish everytimes he will come too close to chuck and he will go down like almost everybody, unless he decide to play the punching back for 15 min like Wandy did, we saw his hearth for sure but he did get dominated anyways.

Also, we have to be caution about the padded record of some fighters, i mean you can have a perfect record and be a can anyways, the record factor is affecting the picks of a lot of peoples witch can lead to some funny post like KIMBO in the UFC !! lol or Kimbo top 10 HW !! lol


Last edited 2/17/08 5:23PM server time by tuvok500
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Post #4   2/17/08 5:19:11PM   

jiujitsufreak74

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Posted by tuvok500

Silva did not suddenly appear on top of the P4P ranking , he was there top 3 for a while and after his second win to rich he moved up 1 or 2 spot witch is perfectly normal and logical, of course if a guy was having Silva #10 P4P and he moved him up to #1, it is not normal.
Same for GSP, he was for me always in the top 3 P4P and it is always a back and forth between him and Silva, as for Rampage i don't understand how he can be ranked in the # 3 P4P no matter what.

A P4P ranking is normally only imaginary and it is base on a lot of factors witch include how do you love the guy, good example CC is still in the top 3 P4P of a lot of peoples , witch is not base on reality of 2008.

As for GG example, it is clear that you don't like the guy, and because of that you denied him everything he did in JJ before MMA.
And the fact that Werdum beated him a month ago is not a reason to claim that the logic choice was Werdum because he beated GG a couple of years ago.
If that thing was working, Prater would have beated Condit easily last week !!

As for kimbo, i don't see him in the top 100 HW , so , i am not in his wagon !!

And Chuck will KO Shogun, just wait and see, it is not base on the Forrest fight it is base on style and logic only, Shogun will not be able to clinch to use his knee, he will be severely punish everytimes he will come too close to chuck and he will go down like almost everybody, unless he decide to play the punching back for 15 min like Wandy did, we saw his hearth for sure but he did get dominated anyways.

Also, we have to be caution about the padded record of some fighters, i mean you can have a perfect record and be a can anyways, the record factor is affecting the picks of a lot of peoples witch can lead to some funny post like KIMBO in the UFC !! lol or Kimbo top 10 HW !! lol





im going to have to agree to disagree here. what i was saying is, how GSP will eek out Silva for number 1 after his fight for some people, and then after Silva's fight he will then eek out GSP. i was not talking about ranking him high, but ranking him number 1. the number 1 P4P fighter usually is the guy who had the most recent fight, that was all i was trying to get at.

as for GG, i do like him. i picked hi against CC and werdum, but he is the perfect example for this. i disproved his JJ accolades because he really doesn't have too many compared to werdum, big nog, pe de pano or roger gracie. the ufc just over-hyped him in that respect and that is all i was pointing out in that other thread.

and with the chuck fight, i was not addressing picking Chuck based on logic, but rather those who pick Chuck based on how Shogun did vs Forrest. you obviously do not fit under the people i am criticizing in that respect because i wasn't talking about using logic to pick chuck.

it just seems that you misunderstood me a little, i hope i cleared it up

Post #5   2/17/08 5:32:21PM   

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Posted by jiujitsufreak74


Posted by tuvok500

Silva did not suddenly appear on top of the P4P ranking , he was there top 3 for a while and after his second win to rich he moved up 1 or 2 spot witch is perfectly normal and logical, of course if a guy was having Silva #10 P4P and he moved him up to #1, it is not normal.
Same for GSP, he was for me always in the top 3 P4P and it is always a back and forth between him and Silva, as for Rampage i don't understand how he can be ranked in the # 3 P4P no matter what.

A P4P ranking is normally only imaginary and it is base on a lot of factors witch include how do you love the guy, good example CC is still in the top 3 P4P of a lot of peoples , witch is not base on reality of 2008.

As for GG example, it is clear that you don't like the guy, and because of that you denied him everything he did in JJ before MMA.
And the fact that Werdum beated him a month ago is not a reason to claim that the logic choice was Werdum because he beated GG a couple of years ago.
If that thing was working, Prater would have beated Condit easily last week !!

As for kimbo, i don't see him in the top 100 HW , so , i am not in his wagon !!

And Chuck will KO Shogun, just wait and see, it is not base on the Forrest fight it is base on style and logic only, Shogun will not be able to clinch to use his knee, he will be severely punish everytimes he will come too close to chuck and he will go down like almost everybody, unless he decide to play the punching back for 15 min like Wandy did, we saw his hearth for sure but he did get dominated anyways.

Also, we have to be caution about the padded record of some fighters, i mean you can have a perfect record and be a can anyways, the record factor is affecting the picks of a lot of peoples witch can lead to some funny post like KIMBO in the UFC !! lol or Kimbo top 10 HW !! lol





im going to have to agree to disagree here. what i was saying is, how GSP will eek out Silva for number 1 after his fight for some people, and then after Silva's fight he will then eek out GSP. i was not talking about ranking him high, but ranking him number 1. the number 1 P4P fighter usually is the guy who had the most recent fight, that was all i was trying to get at.

as for GG, i do like him. i picked hi against CC and werdum, but he is the perfect example for this. i disproved his JJ accolades because he really doesn't have too many compared to werdum, big nog, pe de pano or roger gracie. the ufc just over-hyped him in that respect and that is all i was pointing out in that other thread.

and with the chuck fight, i was not addressing picking Chuck based on logic, but rather those who pick Chuck based on how Shogun did vs Forrest. you obviously do not fit under the people i am criticizing in that respect because i wasn't talking about using logic to pick chuck.

it just seems that you misunderstood me a little, i hope i cleared it up



Well, i see your point here with the #1 P4P.
But the key here to have Silva on top after his win over Rich and GSP moving on top after his win over Hughes is because when a fighter is winning, he add another statement to his previous ranking, i mean, if the guy is #2 P4P and he win convincingly his next fight, it's mean that the guy who was good enough to be # 2 in the ranking have increased is domination by 1 fight and it is normal that he move up in from of the #1 who did not fight in the same card.

The processes is reversing when the new #2 guy who was #1 before, is fighting and add another statement to his record, the guy with that new win can move up at the # 1 P4P spot again because the guy who is on top did not fight on the same card or close too.

The only way to have the truth here is to have the #1 fighting the #2, the winner is on top end of the story.
Of course is it not forever, if the #1 guy is losing like CC did, it is normal to see the # 2 guy who lost to the # 1 guy a year ago being ranked on top.

Well, i understand what i wrote, not sure if you will , you know my English is so above everybody !! lol



Last edited 2/17/08 6:02PM server time by tuvok500
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Post #6   2/17/08 5:59:44PM   

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Posted by tuvok500


Posted by jiujitsufreak74


Posted by tuvok500

Silva did not suddenly appear on top of the P4P ranking , he was there top 3 for a while and after his second win to rich he moved up 1 or 2 spot witch is perfectly normal and logical, of course if a guy was having Silva #10 P4P and he moved him up to #1, it is not normal.
Same for GSP, he was for me always in the top 3 P4P and it is always a back and forth between him and Silva, as for Rampage i don't understand how he can be ranked in the # 3 P4P no matter what.

A P4P ranking is normally only imaginary and it is base on a lot of factors witch include how do you love the guy, good example CC is still in the top 3 P4P of a lot of peoples , witch is not base on reality of 2008.

As for GG example, it is clear that you don't like the guy, and because of that you denied him everything he did in JJ before MMA.
And the fact that Werdum beated him a month ago is not a reason to claim that the logic choice was Werdum because he beated GG a couple of years ago.
If that thing was working, Prater would have beated Condit easily last week !!

As for kimbo, i don't see him in the top 100 HW , so , i am not in his wagon !!

And Chuck will KO Shogun, just wait and see, it is not base on the Forrest fight it is base on style and logic only, Shogun will not be able to clinch to use his knee, he will be severely punish everytimes he will come too close to chuck and he will go down like almost everybody, unless he decide to play the punching back for 15 min like Wandy did, we saw his hearth for sure but he did get dominated anyways.

Also, we have to be caution about the padded record of some fighters, i mean you can have a perfect record and be a can anyways, the record factor is affecting the picks of a lot of peoples witch can lead to some funny post like KIMBO in the UFC !! lol or Kimbo top 10 HW !! lol





im going to have to agree to disagree here. what i was saying is, how GSP will eek out Silva for number 1 after his fight for some people, and then after Silva's fight he will then eek out GSP. i was not talking about ranking him high, but ranking him number 1. the number 1 P4P fighter usually is the guy who had the most recent fight, that was all i was trying to get at.

as for GG, i do like him. i picked hi against CC and werdum, but he is the perfect example for this. i disproved his JJ accolades because he really doesn't have too many compared to werdum, big nog, pe de pano or roger gracie. the ufc just over-hyped him in that respect and that is all i was pointing out in that other thread.

and with the chuck fight, i was not addressing picking Chuck based on logic, but rather those who pick Chuck based on how Shogun did vs Forrest. you obviously do not fit under the people i am criticizing in that respect because i wasn't talking about using logic to pick chuck.

it just seems that you misunderstood me a little, i hope i cleared it up



Well, i see your point here with the #1 P4P.
But the key here to have Silva on top after his win over Rich and GSP moving on top after his win over Hughes is because when a fighter is winning, he add another statement to his previous ranking, i mean, if the guy is #2 P4P and he win convincingly his next fight, it's mean that the guy who was good enough to be # 2 in the ranking have increased is domination by 1 fight and it is normal that he move up in from of the #1 who did not fight in the same card.

The processes is reversing when the new #2 guy who was #1 before, is fighting and add another statement to his record, the guy with that new win can move up at the # 1 P4P spot again because the guy who is on top did not fight on the same card or close too.

The only way to have the truth here is to have the #1 fighting the #2, the winner is on top end of the story.
Of course is it not forever, if the #1 guy is losing like CC did, it is normal to see the # 2 guy who lost to the # 1 guy a year ago being ranked on top.

Well, i understand what i wrote, not sure if you will , you know my English is so above everybody !! lol








welcome to point counter point with tuvok500 and jiujitsufreak74! lol you guys both have some good point and this thread was a very interesting read.

as for me i'm to worn out to partake in this one...i'm gonna go to a less challanging thread....something that will help me sleep...like kimbo top 10 hw....that crazyness should help me drift off!

Post #7   2/17/08 11:12:35PM   

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Posted by tuvok500

Well, i see your point here with the #1 P4P.
But the key here to have Silva on top after his win over Rich and GSP moving on top after his win over Hughes is because when a fighter is winning, he add another statement to his previous ranking, i mean, if the guy is #2 P4P and he win convincingly his next fight, it's mean that the guy who was good enough to be # 2 in the ranking have increased is domination by 1 fight and it is normal that he move up in from of the #1 who did not fight in the same card.

The processes is reversing when the new #2 guy who was #1 before, is fighting and add another statement to his record, the guy with that new win can move up at the # 1 P4P spot again because the guy who is on top did not fight on the same card or close too.

The only way to have the truth here is to have the #1 fighting the #2, the winner is on top end of the story.
Of course is it not forever, if the #1 guy is losing like CC did, it is normal to see the # 2 guy who lost to the # 1 guy a year ago being ranked on top.

Well, i understand what i wrote, not sure if you will , you know my English is so above everybody !! lol



i understand what you are getting at. i guess we just look at this topic from two different view points. i hope you agree with my other points i made.

anyone else want to interject here?

Post #8   2/18/08 10:29:13PM   

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wow...
didn't know you had to have a PhD to be on playground
no but good post, but i have to agree with Tuvok, but i totally see ur point of view. Great post, im giving props for your effort

Post #9   2/19/08 3:16:36AM   

jiujitsufreak74

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Posted by RMFG_187

wow...
didn't know you had to have a PhD to be on playground
no but good post, but i have to agree with Tuvok, but i totally see ur point of view. Great post, im giving props for your effort



thanks i appreciate that you took the time to read this over. i guess my theory isn't 100% solid but there are certain patterns that it explains.

i only wish i had a PhD but since i am not even in college yet it doesn't seem like i'll get one anytime soon

Post #10   2/19/08 10:26:55PM