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Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira vs. the UFC, Part II

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AchillesHeel

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Well, it's seven months since my first thread on the topic, and Minotauro has the bling around his waist.





So now what?

A fight with Randy Couture is a dream match for those of us who aren't obsessed with Fedor Emelianenko. If anybody could give Randy his first loss by submission hold in more than 6 years, it's Big Nog.

A match against Andrei Arlovski would be another barn-burner, but seems less likely to happen with every passing day.

Brandon Vera is coming off the loss to Sylvia, Gabriel Gonzaga has to go back to the drawing board, and Frank Mir still has a road to travel.

Does anyone in the UFC's Heavyweight division hit harder than Tim Sylvia? Not with his hands, I don't think, but Cheick Kongo is a much more well-rounded striker. If Kongo caught Nog like Herring caught him, it could be bad news for the Brazilian. Unfortunately, Kongo's takedown defense is inferior to just about everybody's, and I could see him getting sub'd in much the same way Sylvia did, only quicker.

Fabricio Werdum may have stepped to the front of the line with his win over Gabriel Gonzaga. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get one more fight before being given a title shot, and I think he could be Nogueira's toughest test. If anyone in the UFC can roll with Nogueira, it's Werdum. Of course Nog knows that, and their first meeting - at Pride: Critical Countdown in July of '06 - was a boxing match that ended in a Decision for Nogueira.

I can easily envision Nogueira ending the year as the reigning champ, with 2 more notches in his gun-barrel.

Last edited 2/17/08 4:19PM server time by AchillesHeel
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Post #1   2/17/08 4:18:47PM   

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I too see Nogueira ending this year as champ. Now that Cro Cop is gone, I don't see anyone in the UFC who I think has more than a 40% chance of beating Nogueira. I know people will say "Cro Cop has sucked lately so he left", but I reckon if he had a shot at his old adversary, and avenging that loss, then Cro Cop might have been able to take it, his fire would have relit. Imo, Nogueira will have another 2 successful defences this year be the champ as the year rolls in 09

Post #2   2/17/08 5:13:27PM   

warglory

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Big Nog will def be champ by the end of the year. This of course could easily be upended by a big signing by Zuffa, which is entirely a possibility based on what happened in 07 with the huge amount of signees.

Post #3   2/17/08 5:19:22PM   

cmill21

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It's really tough to see anyone who can beat him, all the guys with good enough BJJ to stave off his subs has striking that he can exploit with his boxing. Werdum's the closest IMO and he will still probably lose a UD.

Post #4   2/17/08 6:10:02PM   

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I agree. However, I think, like anybody else, he can get caught. His brother's chin is nearly as legendary and he was KO'd by one punch.

Outside of that, I don't see anyone on the roster right now that can beat him

Post #5   2/17/08 6:13:46PM   

nickcuc547

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i think the only guy in the ufc right now that can beat nog is big tim, and we all saw how that turned out.

Post #6   2/17/08 7:22:21PM   

RMFG_187

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3 people that can beat Nog in the UFC.
Randy Without a doubt (but it won't happen)
Andrei would be a joke fight
Lesnar (as much as i hate him he would own Nog in the stand up and then GnP)

Last edited 2/17/08 9:16PM server time by rmfg_187
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Post #7   2/17/08 9:15:46PM   

Aaronno9

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I think his next defence is going to be against fabricio, which i think nog takes by desicion. Doesnt seem like AA is going to be sticking around, but with his sambo background he should at least beable to hold his own on the ground with nog rather than getting subbed straight away like tim, and i think hed definatly win the stand up, so this could be a very intriguing fight if it ever happens. Kongo would get taken down and subbed in the first round imo. A rematch with timmy doesnt seem likely in the near future, hes just had to many title shots and i think he'll need to beat at least 2-3 top guys to even get close. A fight between him and kongo/gonzaga seems more likley than any of the three getting a shot at nog. Who ever said brock ill assume was joking, nogs boxing is so much sharper than brocks, and if brock tries to take nog down hes going to get subbed.

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Post #8   2/17/08 9:53:59PM   

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If Lesnar lost to Mir by submission, who is a BJJ guy, how is he going to beat THE BJJ guy, Nog? I like Brock and I was rooting for him because I know he's really training and trying to be for real and not just jump in, but he doesn't have much of a shot at Nog now.

Nog will definitely still be champ at the end of this year unless Couture comes back and fights him.

Post #9   2/17/08 9:56:48PM   

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yea with the people that are/will get the next title shots it seems like nog will keep the belt for a while, i think the only person right now who will beat him is AA, if he sticks around i think he can take Nog...............i may sound crazy or whatnot, but i think Brandon Vera would beat nog, just my toughts.

Post #10   2/17/08 11:44:04PM   

loonytnt

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no one said GG yet? i think this guy would have a great chance to beat nog, GG got some stand up and good BJJ, imo GG could beat him

Post #11   2/18/08 12:14:00AM   

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Posted by nickcuc547

i think the only guy in the ufc right now that can beat nog is big tim, and we all saw how that turned out.



I totally agree. To beat Nog you Need Powerful striking, Great takedown defense, and probably a size advantage. Big Timmy definetly had the best shot of beating him, and he was until Nog caught him in the 3rd round. I really don't see anyone else matching up very well against him.

Like was said earlier, Werdum probably cna't get him to the ground , and Nog can outstrike Werdum and is smart enough to play that game instead of the ground game with Werdum, and I'd see Nog winning via UD/TKO.

Against Kongo, lol...Cheick would be lucky if that lasted into the 2nd round. Kongo is the better striker, but I seriously doubt his Takedown defense and sub defence is good enough to advoid the same fate Timmy got. And actually, If Kongo wins against Herring, I think Kongo should get the next shot at him (Barring a Couture comeback).

Arlovski? Well, He also has a striking advantage, IF HE BRINGS IT! If he fights like he has in his last 4 fights, forget about it, no matter WHERE the fight takes place. On the ground, Andrei's Sambo background will help him, but I seriously doubt he'll be able to survive 5 rounds against Nog.

Lesner? Pure and simple, if Mir Caught him, Nog will. Lesner might be able to put a beating on him, but Nog will take it, smile, and Slap on an anaconda choke in the late first, early second.

Herring won't get a fourth shot at him...

Gonzaga is an intriging thought, but I see Nog winning whereever that fight would take place. Basically, Nog is just a little bit better than everything Gonzaga is good at.

Frank Mir would be an interesting fight. Watching those two Grapple would be a beautiful thing to watch. But I think Nog would take a similiar approach to this as he would/did against Werdum, winning a standup battle, as Mir's takedowns are average at best. Also, I don't like the chances of Mir catching Nog in a sub.

Brandon vera would be a good fight. I dunno, Maaaaybe he can rock Nog with a knee or something, But even so, Nog's recovery abilities are second to none. If it's a matter of striking with the hands, I think Nog's Hands are crisper and faster. And Althought Vera is no pushover on the Ground, he'd get totally controlled by Nog on the Mat, and probably Arm-barred.

Eddie Sanchez and Antoni Hardonk simply aren't ready...

SO yeah, TImmiy had the best shot, and Nog still beat him. Kongo deserves the next shot if he beats herring, and he'll get subbed easily.

The BIG wild card here is if Randy somehow comes back to fight him. I think Randy has the Wrestling, Takedown defense and Sub defense to dictate where the fight goes. And on the feet, I put it as a pretty even fight. The Odds of finishing Nog are VERY slim, and Randy is someone who can win a fight if it goes 5 rounds because he's a master of imposing his will, even if he doesn't finish someone.

But since Randy's comeback looks unlikely, Nobody the UFC currently has will beat Nog anytime soon. THe best chance is if in 2009 sometime TImmy gets another chance. But the belt will stay with Nog for the forseeable Future.

Last edited 2/18/08 1:25AM server time by ChokeUOut
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Post #12   2/18/08 1:21:56AM   

cmill21

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Posted by loonytnt

no one said GG yet? i think this guy would have a great chance to beat nog, GG got some stand up and good BJJ, imo GG could beat him



See if he had any kind of a chin he would have a good chance, but after quitting in his last two fights I want to see if he'll keep folding. I think GG has a huge heart(he fought 3 days after his son died), he's got talent, but IMHO he needs to quit the HK crap, theres been one guy in all of mma i've seen land it over and over, it takes incredible timing, and I think he tires himself out by throwing them.

Post #13   2/18/08 1:23:35AM   

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Posted by RMFG_187

3 people that can beat Nog in the UFC.
Randy Without a doubt (but it won't happen)
Andrei would be a joke fight
Lesnar (as much as i hate him he would own Nog in the stand up and then GnP)



Lesnar?

... LESNAR???

the same man that tapped to Mir in less than 2 minutes? And you expect him to last 25 minutes with big nog?

Last edited 2/18/08 2:34AM server time by pookie
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Post #14   2/18/08 2:33:49AM   

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Posted by cmill21

It's really tough to see anyone who can beat him, all the guys with good enough BJJ to stave off his subs has striking that he can exploit with his boxing. Werdum's the closest IMO and he will still probably lose a UD.





He's a bad match up for everybody. If they have a good enough ground game he will pick them apart on the feet. If they have good striking it will end like the Big Tim fight.

IMHO Lesnar actually has the best chance. Yeah you laugh now but I honestly think next year when Lesnar gets the experience under his belt and he actually grows into a complete fighter. He'll actually be a bad match up for Big Nog. Lesnar at his MMA prime would beat Nog much like fedor. GNP!

So I honestly believe Big Nog will remain champ until Lesnar grows more and touches up on that sub defense. Cardio would be Lesnar's only dowfall because it would be hard to imagine Lesnar keeping up that same GNP pace against Mir with sub defense, not getting submitted for more then 2 rounds.

Post #15   2/18/08 3:24:52AM   
 
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