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My argument for Liddell>Silva & Hughes> St. Pierre

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gsquat

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This is my reasoning for my two UFC 79 "upset" picks. Oh, and If you're not patient enough to read all of this then you have ADD.

Lets Start with Liddell vs Silva.

Looking at Liddell's lost against Jardine, its obvious Jardine made a gameplan to beat Chuck by points which he carried out flawlessly. Unfortunately for Chuck,
he didn't adjust his style to the fight at hand and lost because of it. Keith played defensively, popped in for a leg or body kick, and then moved back out. Chuck relies on his opponents coming towards him and for them to be the agressor in the fight. That is why you can always picture Chuck with his arms out circling and strafing around the ring. Keith never was the agressor and this f#cked with Chuck big time. So, a couple of times, he decided to try to move in on Keith and almost got knocked out as a result. This made him extremely uncomfortable and he stayed defensive the rest of the fight, which was not enough to win.

As far as the fight with Rampage goes, he's a better striker than Chuck. End of story.

The rest is pretty simple. Forget age or fights past. Look at the present stats. Wanderlei Silva loves to move forward and strike. He has a pretty good muay thai clinch (see Rampage fight), but Chuck may be too tall for him to do anything with the clinch. I completely expect to see vintage Chuck Liddell and for him to knock out an agressive Wanderlei.

I know people are saying,"But Rampage beat Chuck, and Wanderlei beat Rampage. So Wanderlei can beat Chuck." Its not that easy. Its all about matchups. Silva beat Rampage with a knee in the clinch. That wont be nearly as easy with Liddell. So having read all that, I pick Liddell over Silva in the first by knockout.

Now for Hughes vs St. Pierre

The fights past arent too relevant except that they're playing a back and forth. Hughes beat St. Pierre by armbar in the first fight, Georges adjusted in the next fight. He fought more agressively. Avoided take downs and won the fight. So now its Matt Hughes's turn. Hughes picked St. Pierre to fight. You say "so" but that says a lot to me. His confidence going into this next fight must be solid. He's a very smart fighter so you know he's going to devise a gameplan based on how St. Pierre beat him last time. I don't think it will be easy for either fighter or one-sided, that is why I say Hughes over St.Pierre by split decision.

UFC 78 was my first fight on mmapg and I made the unfortunate mistake of picking fighters I hoped would win instead the fighters I thought would win. So I've decided to look at fights deeper and more thoroughly. Thats why I was 4-5 for 78 and 7-2 for the finale. I'm interested to know what others think about these fights and more importantly why.

Last edited 12/10/07 6:27PM server time by gsquat
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Post #1   12/10/07 6:17:45PM   

Lay_N_Pray

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I have no idea who will win Chuck vs Wandy or Hughes vs St. Pierre, but I have been thinking about it a long time and I guess I will make my picks public right now.

Wandy over Chuck
Your argument sounded really good and almost made me pick Chuck, but I stepped back and thought about it and cant say I agree. Liddell is in a weird place mentally now with the whole "should" or "shouldnt" I retire. Add that to the fact he has not really changed camps or training techniques in a while so he isnt really improving, and for a while he didnt have to, but now he does. I think he has lost some of his killer instinct and drive over the past year.

Wandy on the other hand, needed a change of scenery and got it. He is in America now, he worked with Couture, and he has worked with a bunch of new guys he was not exposed to. He is excited to come to the UFC as opposed to questioning if his time is up. This is a fresh start for him, cause most fans dont know about his recent struggles since he is being billed to them as one of the best strikers around. I think he wants to make those fans believe in him and I think he will.

Hughes over GSP
Don't ask me why. I know GSP is the better fighter at this stage in their careers, you dont have to tell me that. It just seems like fate that the most dominant WW champion of all time would sneak away with a 3-2 record over someone who could become the GOAT. Hughes knows there wont be a fourth fight so if he can weasle out a win, he will always have that claim to fame. The whole deal about this not getting to Canada, 7 week notice plays into Hughes hands. Also I think Serra is going to tap Hughes, and the only way that fight is going down is if Hughes gets the title. This pick could change...cause I definitely know GSP is better, I just dont think he is winning right now

Post #2   12/10/07 6:51:04PM   

cmill21

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Wanderlei has changed alot. Chucks history against strikers isn't the best, Overeem is the best striker he beat and Overeem rocked him big time, Rampage was willing to take a punch to land one, and we all know wand is willing to do that. As for chuck being to tall, he's only an inch taller then rampage, and rampage is more then likely stronger, hight has little to do with the clinch working unless it an astronomical difference. I have also been watching Wand's recent sparring sessions, they look alot different then they did while he was with chute boxe, he's working with shawn tompkins, who is a good striking coach. I don't think we'll see the same Wand, I think we'll see something like Wand Cro Cop 1, or Wand fully exploiting how chuck holds his hands. Also keep in mind that Wand's last two KO losses have been accumulative damage, Cro Cop pummeled him, that was honestly the best evade and hit performance i've ever seen, and Hendo was a war.

Post #3   12/10/07 7:06:38PM   

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I mostly agree with the OP's views on the Liddell/Silva fight.

Maybe it also has something to do with all these super-fighters coming out of other leagues and not really putting up much of a fight (see: Shogun, Cro-Cop, Okami). I know there are examples like Rampage and Anderson Silva, but they seem to be the exception, rather than the rule.

Plus, I look at W. Silva's last two fights and see losses to fighters who have not had the grand UFC entrance they expected.

The problem with enthymemes such as
Silva>Rampage>Liddell
is that they dont always even out, for instance
Rampage>Henderson>Silva
So I dont think that you can logically reason in that respect.

Granted, none of my opinions touch on actual fighting practices, but in a striker's fight, those are often irrelavant anyways. I expect Chuck to come out with something different. Silva can only train to fight the one style Liddell has always shown, and knowing this, I assume Chuck will mix it up. If he uses a slightly modified fighting style he will instantly have an advantage.

On second thought, my final prediction: Chuck falls down, Silva kicks him in the head, gets disqualified. Crazy head-kickin' Pride fighters...

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Post #4   12/10/07 8:08:26PM   

Rush

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I disagree with the OP and similar follow-ups.

Wanderlei has the tools to beat Chuck before and I expect him to be even better now. Chuck has not looked like he has gotten better in the past year or two. He really hasn't had to. Unless Chuck totally changes his fight style, which I am doubting, but it could happen or Wanderlei makes a big mistake, I see Wanderlei taking this one by decision.

GSP and Hughes. If GSP can shake off Hughes' first take down then he will win the fight. GSP is still in a dimension above Hughes WRT striking and I don't see Hughes dominating GSP on the ground. This fight will likely go 4 rounds or to decision unless Hughes decides to stand and trade with GSP. Hughes may be experienced, but I am sure his loss to GSP will be in his mind at least once going into the fight.

Post #5   12/10/07 10:26:48PM   

Pitbull09

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Heres my thoughts

Wanderlei over Chuck- I saw how you wrote that Silva beating Rampage and Rampage beating Chuck has nothing to do with this. I agree with you on that completely, If that worked, then Henderson would be our LHW champion but it just doesnt. Match ups and gameplans make up a fight.
Chuck to me has built his career around KOing submission specialist and wrestlers. He truly wasnt challenged against a stiker of his level until Rampage came to the UFC and was completely destroyed. His next opponent was the same deal, Jardine is known to be a striker and managed to beat Chuck at that for three whole rounds. You know why? Cause Chuck is use to being the dominate striker against fighter that want to go to the ground. Neither of these fighters planned on going to the ground and it worked flawlessly.
Wanderlei is going to be the nail in the coffin for Chuck, as he is argueably the best striker in the sport and will only want to stay standing. The only factor really against Silva is if he will be fine fighting in a cage rather than a ring. I think like Rampage, the transition will be fine for him and he will surprise a lot of you guys with how he push Chuck against the cage wall, and throw strikes and knees until he is KO'd.
Wanderlei Silva is the only guy who can beat Rampage at this point and I think he will pass threw Chuck to get his shot.

Hughes over Pierre- I know Pierre prob has the better chance here but if you look at the last two fights, I think Hughes had a way better showing in his win than Pierres win.
Hughes won in a dominate fashion catching Pierre in a submission with his ground game. Pierre won however with a KO after two kicks to the groin in a row. Someone tell me which fighter seems better in this rivalry. The only factor that Hughes need to worry about is Pierres good gameplans
No matter how many times Pierre does it, no one seems to notice that he attempts to take wrestlers to the ground! The guy knows it will catch them off guard to go for a takedown and he has done this to both Sherk and Kos (which I predicted as well), If Hughes isnt prepared for some takedown defense, this fight will slowly go to the judges where GSP can finally say, "Hughes has passed the torch."
Other than the takedown issue, Hughes should be seen as the guy winning this fight. He not a future HoFer for nothing and we will see why at 79

Post #6   12/10/07 11:06:32PM   

loonytnt

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liddell and GSP are my picks

Post #7   12/10/07 11:50:11PM   

allmotormark

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liddell and silva is a toss up no matter what anyone says but my personal thought on it is that randy couture being the equalizer. his game plans that he comes up with for himeself and his fighters seem great....really who would have picked shogun to loose by submission to forrest.....he is able to train fighters differently for each fighter it seems , chuck has been the same for too long, i saw some old vale tudo fights with him and man he was a diiferent kinda fighter now he looks like a pot belly pig looking for a one shot one hit wonder

Post #8   12/11/07 12:43:40AM   

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lol at the OP saying GSP vs Hughes will end in a split decision.


split decision this fight will NOT be.

Post #9   12/11/07 6:54:17AM   

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Posted by gsquat

The fights past arent too relevant except that they're playing a back and forth. Hughes beat St. Pierre by armbar in the first fight, Georges adjusted in the next fight. He fought more agressively. Avoided take downs and won the fight. So now its Matt Hughes's turn. Hughes picked St. Pierre to fight. You say "so" but that says a lot to me. His confidence going into this next fight must be solid. He's a very smart fighter so you know he's going to devise a gameplan based on how St. Pierre beat him last time. I don't think it will be easy for either fighter or one-sided, that is why I say Hughes over St.Pierre by split decision.

Sorry bro i see very little reasoning there and must strongly disagree, Hughes still has to get GSP down which he had no luck with in the last fight (thats very relevent as its much more recent) and the only reason he won the 1st fight was cos GSP made a terrible rookie error and then tapped with a half second left, i dont see any gameplan to be devised for Hughes apart from try for takedowns constantly and hope to win a decision, he wont sub him, he wont have much luck with GnP, and thats all IF he gets him down which i VERY much doubt, each round starts standing and GSP will put a hurting on him then, rewatch both fights again i suggest

Post #10   12/11/07 7:07:16AM   

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Posted by gsquat


The fights past arent too relevant except that they're playing a back and forth. Hughes beat St. Pierre by armbar in the first fight, Georges adjusted in the next fight. He fought more agressively. Avoided take downs and won the fight. So now its Matt Hughes's turn. Hughes picked St. Pierre to fight. You say "so" but that says a lot to me. His confidence going into this next fight must be solid. He's a very smart fighter so you know he's going to devise a gameplan based on how St. Pierre beat him last time. I don't think it will be easy for either fighter or one-sided, that is why I say Hughes over St.Pierre by split decision.



You forgot to add that one of the more pertinant reasons for Hughes picking GSP was that he knew GSP would only have 1 month to prepare for the fight, thereby giving Hughes a significant advantage, as he's been in training for a fight for far longer.

I say GSP round 1 TKO, as I don't think Hughes really has it anymore.

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Post #11   12/11/07 8:11:03AM   

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Posted by Pitbull09
Pierre won however with a KO after two kicks to the groin in a row. Someone tell me which fighter seems better in this rivalry.




Says the guy that ranks Kongo over Cro Cop


Ireally don't understand why people keep saying this even after the fact that Hughes himself stated that they were not kicks to the nuts.

Post #12   12/11/07 9:35:32AM   

Franklinfan47

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I think Liddell vs Wandy is going to come down to who catches who first, i.e. who has the more precise striking. That said, I think Liddell will catch him. I also went with him over Silva.

In regards to Hughes vs St.Pierre im inclined to disagree. I think Hughes is over confident that he will catch St.pierre off gaurd in this fight. St.pierre has the cardio, the wrestling, the striking, and the submissions to put hughes away. That said I think Hughes will come in with a smarter game plan this time (as he's hinted in interviews) in which st.pierre will be unable to finish him. So I think St.pierre will win a decision.

Post #13   12/11/07 11:05:37AM   

Pitbull09

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Posted by Rush


Posted by Pitbull09
Pierre won however with a KO after two kicks to the groin in a row. Someone tell me which fighter seems better in this rivalry.




Says the guy that ranks Kongo over Cro Cop


Ireally don't understand why people keep saying this even after the fact that Hughes himself stated that they were not kicks to the nuts.



Personally man, I am not a guy who puts much time into my ranking and dont care if im attacked for them. I rank Kongo higher because he is closer to a title shot than Mirko. Kongos ground skill is embarrassing and he is by far not close to Mirkos skill (or maybe past skill)

Im sorry to inform you, but Cro Cop has two loses (one a KO to a kick!) in a row and CURRENT rankings should not allow him to be to high though he is capable of more. Mirko lost to Kongo, but I see your like alot of people and choose to attack rankings instead of the real subject.

Hughes obviously needed time to recover from the kicks there and people shouldnt see him as big of a underdog. I personally have it down for GSP 2nd round KO.

Its pretty easy to act like a jerk and say the only reason you think GSP will win cause your obviously a fan "Rush" and your bias is imparring your decision but I chose not to say that cause Im staying on the issue.

Post #14   12/11/07 5:58:40PM   

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Posted by Rush

I disagree with the OP and similar follow-ups.

Wanderlei has the tools to beat Chuck before and I expect him to be even better now. Chuck has not looked like he has gotten better in the past year or two. He really hasn't had to. Unless Chuck totally changes his fight style, which I am doubting, but it could happen or Wanderlei makes a big mistake, I see Wanderlei taking this one by decision.

GSP and Hughes. If GSP can shake off Hughes' first take down then he will win the fight. GSP is still in a dimension above Hughes WRT striking and I don't see Hughes dominating GSP on the ground. This fight will likely go 4 rounds or to decision unless Hughes decides to stand and trade with GSP. Hughes may be experienced, but I am sure his loss to GSP will be in his mind at least once going into the fight.



i disagree on silva chuck, i think wandy is the worst possible matchup for chuck because he will be right there for chuck to hit because of his aggressive style, i thnk he gets ko'd early but it should be an explosive fight.

the gsp hughes assesment was spot on imo.

Post #15   12/11/07 7:23:23PM   
 
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