Upset of Night Special (My Picks For UFC74)

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marketmaven
7/31/07 8:47:48AM
Current bankroll is 1336. Looking to add to that by picking 4 fights in UFC 74 Respect. Here they are:

Kendall crushes Patrick Cote. --> This one should be easy for Kendall whose size and aggression has been overwhelming opponents. Patrick hits hard but he has been rather weak the last few fights I saw hm in. I dont see this one being close or going the distance. Betting 400 to gain 160.

Travis Lutter submits Ryan Jensen --> Travis is methodical and all about business, dont know much about the other guy but his record is strong 11-1 and he is also a submission guy, so I'll play it safe and make a smaller wager. Betting 100 for 25.

Huerto pounds out Crane --> Huerta has been really active and is almost relentless. How many fights has this guy fought this year? (answer this will be his fourth and he'll probably fight one more time before the year is out). Crane is no joke and is undefeated. Then again Doug Evans brought his A game and undefeated record in Huertas last fight. Huerta pounds Crane like he did Evans and leaves a broken, defeated man. Betting 236 to gain a measly 27.

UPSET SPECIAL -->
You cant make money if you keep betting on the favorites. You gotta see through the smoke and find a fight where people go for recognition over skill.

Hardonk Smashes Mir --> This guy Hardonk is no joke. He hits hard, and has near Cro Cop type leg kicks and Vandy type Knees. He is being tutored by Hoost and is built like a truck. Repeat, this man hits hard. Mir's only chance is an early submission, otherwise he'll be smashed, and retire. Name recognition alone won't win, and unless he pulls another lucky one (like he did with Tank Abbott), this looks like a no-brainer for me. Bettting $500 to gain $1500.

What are your thoughts?
Trapt1nw0nder
7/31/07 9:24:49AM
I put 70 on Alberto Crane to make $630....why not? he IS undefeated

never know...he might pull off a Frankie Edgar(Over Tyson Griffin).....and Huerta didnt look so hot against Evans

I still think Huerta is gonna win of course..but still good odds...anything can happen

80 on Josh Koscheck for 288....(still think GSP will take it..)

and 25 on Hardonk for 75
Btews22
7/31/07 9:34:29AM
I love that hardonk pick i got some cash on the GG fight as well
Violentcuv
7/31/07 9:49:41AM
Im staying away from picking any real upsets on this card. Howevere I am betting all my money on Randy to beat GG. It's almost even money.
marketmaven
7/31/07 10:47:20AM
I am staying away from picking either GG or Randy. Seems like a tough one to call, GG has knockout power, Randy doesnt. Both of them have strong ground and pounds and strong ground games. I almost think it is a coin flip. If I had to bet though, I think smarts and gameplan beats raw strength and brute. I'd pick Randy if I had to. Think intangibles, the crowd, the training, the experience, the gameplan and the world class wrestling. Tough one.

Good luck.
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Twenty20Dollars
7/31/07 10:49:21AM
I put money on every fight. But Im really hoping Hardonk dominates Mir, so I can win some big cash!
marketmaven
7/31/07 11:38:03AM
So you are betting on Hardonk too eh? How much, I got $500, hoping to bag a three bagger ($1500) off that fight. Mir has to pray for a submission and early on when they are not too sweaty otherwise Mir is going to have to stick to commentating (he commentates WEC fights).

Good Luck.
slapshot
7/31/07 12:19:58PM
Kendall Grove vs Patrick Cote

Grove IMO will get KO'd in the second.
marketmaven
7/31/07 12:33:03PM
Did you pick that one? I am putting money on Grove, lets see you do the same for Cote. This site is fricken awesome.
SteedTheDeed
7/31/07 12:54:01PM
i do have a feeling that Mir will fall hard. But i hope he doesn't.
scoozna
7/31/07 1:05:56PM

Posted by marketmaven

Did you pick that one? I am putting money on Grove, lets see you do the same for Cote. This site is fricken awesome.



Yes it is...but imagine how much fun you could be having if you were able to bet against each other! That's how it used to be!

No complaints...I love the playground. I don't really like Cote, but I think he might be able to KO Grove if they stay standing.
marketmaven
7/31/07 1:07:39PM
Mir is a big guy, you see him in a recent showing of WEC where he gave congratz to the California Kid Faber, the guy looks real big. Still, he hasnt been the same since that motorcycle accident. Hardonk will finally be able to unload on him. His teacher, none other than Ernesto Hoost.

Take a look at Ernesto Hoost in some of his fights on YouTube. I recall he even beat Mirko. Hoost has the most devastating leg kicks I have ever seen. It looks like a swinging bat smacking a meat slab.

If Hardonk can get a chance to unload and swing some kicks and Muay Thai knees, it'll be over, if it becomes a wrestling match, I might lose $500 as Hardonk may get submitted or choked out.

Hardonk Mir

wilwith1l
7/31/07 1:22:38PM
I am takin all the underdogs in this one.(for money)
Not in real picks.

$323 Kurt Pellegrino +620 If you win: +$2002 to bankroll
over Stevenson If you lose: -$323 to bankroll
$515 Ryan Jensen +430 If you win: +$2214 to bankroll
over Lutter If you lose: -$515 to bankroll
$488 David Heath +410 If you win: +$2000 to bankroll
over Babalu If you lose: -$488 to bankroll
$223 Alberto Crane +900 If you win: +$2007 to bankroll
over Huerta If you lose: -$223 to bankroll

If one of these happens(which is likely) I am up at least 50% on the night. If two of them happen I tripple up.
I actually think jensen will win(even tho Brock emberassed him)
Heath could definantly win the way Babalus been fightin
The other two... I hate stevenson, and risk versus reward.
If Bodog was offerin any of these, i would take em
scoozna
7/31/07 1:28:16PM

Posted by wilwith1l
If one of these happens(which is likely) I am up at least 50% on the night. If two of them happen I tripple up.



I love folks who bet like this! True gamblers logic. I'm stuck in the mindset of "hold onto your money, only bet on those you believe will win". Thus, I don't have very much in the bank...

Can anyone tell me why Crane is fighting Huerta? Huerta has 4 straight UFC wins, why fight a total newcomer?
wilwith1l
7/31/07 1:52:34PM
I wouldn't be throwin aroun numbers this big if it was real money. I would prolly be playin 1/10th of this.
Bodog is only offer in action on GSPvKoscheck and GGvCouture
I play risk/reward. It's hard for me to bet on anyone that is -300 or more.
CornishMMA
7/31/07 3:07:50PM
dude .......... seriously ................ 1 of those 4 coming good is still not "likely" as you say, the most likely big dog to win is Hardonk for sure!! Wasting your money on Jensen and Kurt imho but still good luck
BerndRealBad
7/31/07 3:26:45PM
Considering his last fight against Justin McCully, where a better submission guy could have finished him at least 10 times, I'm not too sure about this Hardonk thing. Is there a video on youtube or something floating around that has him knocking down trees with his kicks? Sure Mir has been 'a shadow of his former self', but if he is at least 60% back to his form, he shouldn't have a problem with submitting this guy. If who you were being trained by matters so much, then why did Cro Cop protege Zelg Galesic get tapped in the first round of the last PRIDE fight?
marketmaven
7/31/07 6:17:58PM

Posted by BerndRealBad

Considering his last fight against Justin McCully, where a better submission guy could have finished him at least 10 times, I'm not too sure about this Hardonk thing. Is there a video on youtube or something floating around that has him knocking down trees with his kicks? Sure Mir has been 'a shadow of his former self', but if he is at least 60% back to his form, he shouldn't have a problem with submitting this guy. If who you were being trained by matters so much, then why did Cro Cop protege Zelg Galesic get tapped in the first round of the last PRIDE fight?



Hey, sometimes you have to take strong risks the 3 to 1 risk reward ratio here is to big to ignore for me. Not that much risk for quite a great reward. Hey, there is a good chance that Mir gets the submission, but after the 1st round, his chance goes from about 40% to about 10%. If this goes to a decision, or if there a knockout, it will be Hardonk's arm that is raised.
wilwith1l
7/31/07 6:42:26PM
you gotta remember, we're not playin the house. It's two men in a cage.
Northrend
7/31/07 7:30:21PM
My upsets for the night are Mir getting KO'ed and Pellegrino beating Joe by decision.

Got alota money on them as well!!!!
Northrend
7/31/07 7:31:41PM

Posted by BerndRealBad

Considering his last fight against Justin McCully, where a better submission guy could have finished him at least 10 times, I'm not too sure about this Hardonk thing. Is there a video on youtube or something floating around that has him knocking down trees with his kicks? Sure Mir has been 'a shadow of his former self', but if he is at least 60% back to his form, he shouldn't have a problem with submitting this guy. If who you were being trained by matters so much, then why did Cro Cop protege Zelg Galesic get tapped in the first round of the last PRIDE fight?




Zelg Galesic wasn't Crocop's protege I believe they only trained together for a little bit actually he mostly trains with JT. Also Zelg was owning up untill the sub. It certainly does not automatically make you a great fighter to train with the best but it sure as hell doesn't hurt.
SpiderSilva
7/31/07 7:34:26PM
I picked GSP to win and got the money on Kos so im gonna win lol
marketmaven
7/31/07 10:27:45PM
Kos vs GSP should be great fight, but very difficult to pick. I am thinking GSP because he has something to prove, but man is Kos a great and dominant wrestler. Who wins the guy with the tremendous talent and overall well rounded giftedness, or the guy with tremendous athleticism who is spectacular in wrestling. Tough.

I'll keep to my safe picks (Kendall Grove, Travis Lutter, El Matador Huerta, and of course Hardonk over Mir).

Good Luck.
Lay_N_Pray
8/1/07 1:00:27AM
I have everything riding on Gonzaga...

Im talkin play money and real money...well not everything, but more then I usually bet on one fight. I really think he is the real deal and I claim to be one of his biggest fans so I must support that now. I do love Randy, but this Gonzaga seems to be a whole different type of fighter.
marketmaven
8/1/07 6:05:34PM

Posted by Lay_N_Pray

I have everything riding on Gonzaga...

Im talkin play money and real money...well not everything, but more then I usually bet on one fight. I really think he is the real deal and I claim to be one of his biggest fans so I must support that now. I do love Randy, but this Gonzaga seems to be a whole different type of fighter.



Wow, that is risky. I see Randy having problems and I see it a long difficult fight, but I couldnt put real money on that one. Despite the problems, as mentioned, the intangibles should win it for Randy.

Randy and Gonzaga
Kastro
8/1/07 7:46:04PM

Posted by marketmaven

Current bankroll is 1336. Looking to add to that by picking 4 fights in UFC 74 Respect. Here they are:

Kendall crushes Patrick Cote. --> This one should be easy for Kendall whose size and aggression has been overwhelming opponents. Patrick hits hard but he has been rather weak the last few fights I saw hm in. I dont see this one being close or going the distance. Betting 400 to gain 160.

Travis Lutter submits Ryan Jensen --> Travis is methodical and all about business, dont know much about the other guy but his record is strong 11-1 and he is also a submission guy, so I'll play it safe and make a smaller wager. Betting 100 for 25.

Huerto pounds out Crane --> Huerta has been really active and is almost relentless. How many fights has this guy fought this year? (answer this will be his fourth and he'll probably fight one more time before the year is out). Crane is no joke and is undefeated. Then again Doug Evans brought his A game and undefeated record in Huertas last fight. Huerta pounds Crane like he did Evans and leaves a broken, defeated man. Betting 236 to gain a measly 27.

UPSET SPECIAL -->
You cant make money if you keep betting on the favorites. You gotta see through the smoke and find a fight where people go for recognition over skill.

Hardonk Smashes Mir --> This guy Hardonk is no joke. He hits hard, and has near Cro Cop type leg kicks and Vandy type Knees. He is being tutored by Hoost and is built like a truck. Repeat, this man hits hard. Mir's only chance is an early submission, otherwise he'll be smashed, and retire. Name recognition alone won't win, and unless he pulls another lucky one (like he did with Tank Abbott), this looks like a no-brainer for me. Bettting $500 to gain $1500.

What are your thoughts?



If Crane is no joke and undefeated then why bet $236 on Huerta to get 27 if he beats Crane?

I agree with most your picks except for the Huerta/Crane fight... something tells me Huerta will win, but man the amount of money your betting to get $27 just isn't worth IMO...

I have made some nice bets, by UFC 75 im going to be one of the wealthiest players, good luck to you though..
masodd
8/2/07 10:37:47PM
i put a lot on huerta who will probabley win easily
marketmaven
8/3/07 12:19:23AM

Posted by Kastro

If Crane is no joke and undefeated then why bet $236 on Huerta to get 27 if he beats Crane?

I agree with most your picks except for the Huerta/Crane fight... something tells me Huerta will win, but man the amount of money your betting to get $27 just isn't worth IMO...

I have made some nice bets, by UFC 75 im going to be one of the wealthiest players, good luck to you though..



Crane is no joke, but he is not going to beat Huerta either. Huerta, I think is a top three fighter in his division. Crane is a good fighter, good enough to get in the UFC but not the same caliber. You are technically right though, it is alot of money for not that much return and it is probably my weakest pick of the bunch.

Good post and good luck to you too.
marketmaven
8/4/07 11:14:10AM

Posted by marketmaven

Current bankroll is 1336. Looking to add to that by picking 4 fights in UFC 74 Respect. Here they are:

Kendall crushes Patrick Cote. --> This one should be easy for Kendall whose size and aggression has been overwhelming opponents. Patrick hits hard but he has been rather weak the last few fights I saw hm in. I dont see this one being close or going the distance. Betting 400 to gain 160.

Travis Lutter submits Ryan Jensen --> Travis is methodical and all about business, dont know much about the other guy but his record is strong 11-1 and he is also a submission guy, so I'll play it safe and make a smaller wager. Betting 100 for 25.

Huerto pounds out Crane --> Huerta has been really active and is almost relentless. How many fights has this guy fought this year? (answer this will be his fourth and he'll probably fight one more time before the year is out). Crane is no joke and is undefeated. Then again Doug Evans brought his A game and undefeated record in Huertas last fight. Huerta pounds Crane like he did Evans and leaves a broken, defeated man. Betting 236 to gain a measly 27.

UPSET SPECIAL -->
You cant make money if you keep betting on the favorites. You gotta see through the smoke and find a fight where people go for recognition over skill.

Hardonk Smashes Mir --> This guy Hardonk is no joke. He hits hard, and has near Cro Cop type leg kicks and Vandy type Knees. He is being tutored by Hoost and is built like a truck. Repeat, this man hits hard. Mir's only chance is an early submission, otherwise he'll be smashed, and retire. Name recognition alone won't win, and unless he pulls another lucky one (like he did with Tank Abbott), this looks like a no-brainer for me. Bettting $500 to gain $1500.

What are your thoughts?



Ok Recap:
Kendall Grove Cote
Lutter is out so will have to make another pick.
Huerta and Crane This one is a little risky
Hardonk and Mir

Good luck all.