Fedor over Silva
Barnett over Rogers
Those two I can pick right now. Clearly, there's no such thing as a "lock" in this sport - and Silva and Rogers are more legit than some other guys who have scored big shockers - but I think anyone picking Silva or Rogers is just hoping to look clever in the event of an upset.
Right now, I'm 50-50 on Overeem vs. Werdum. I want to see Werdum-Silva from November '09. Werdum's only fought twice in 18 months, so there's not a lot to go on, but my impression has always been that if you don't want to grapple with him, you don't have to. I was surprised and impressed with Silva's boxing in the Arlovski fight, but that was after he lost to Werdum.
Also, I'm not buying the Overeem hype. Yes, he's a good kickboxer. Yes, he's a physical specimen. But since when has either of those things equated to success against Top-10 MMA fighters? He hasn't fought a Top-10 heavyweight in years (and that's if Kharitonov and/or Werdum were Top-10 back in '06-'07, I can't remember if they were or not). Todd Duffee might have been in the Top 50 before the Overeem fight, and I wouldn't rate Kazuyuki Fujita, James Thompson or Gary Goodridge even that highly. His win over Brett Rogers was impressive, sure, but Rogers is a standup fighter and the clear #8 seed in the tournament, imo.
Arlovski-Kharitonov is an awesome matchup, at least on paper. I want
to pick Arlovski, but he just looked so bad in his last fight... I worry that he's mentally broken and/or exhausted. On the other hand, I haven't seen any of Kharitonov's last 3 fights, and that's going back 3 years (by contrast, Overeem has fought 10 times since then).