I trained at American Top Team for 4 years & analyzed Hector in detail. The key to this fight is taking away certain technical habits that Hector loves to do. He is one dimensional with his striking and hardly uses any leg kicks. The key to this fight will be to neutralize what Hector feels comfortable doing. Hector is a good fighter but he has not fought anyone in years that MMA professionals would consider in the top 50-100 category. IMO, Boetsch can potentially win if he does the following:
1) Hector has a habit of moving to his right against an orthodox fighter and constantly steps to the opponents outside left foot to gain control (especially when you are backing up against the cage). He uses this setup on purpose & comes in swinging so you have to counter strike, which temporarily distracts you from defending the takedown. It’s a game of chess with Hector & Boetsch will have to stay 10 ft from cage & mostly move to his left (hectors right) at least 3/4 of the time.
2) Another habit of Hector is that he continuously throws the left upper cut after setting it up with a right hook. Boetsch will neutralize this and many other combinations by moving to his left. Hector also drops his right hand A LOT during fights, which is another reason Boetsch has to move to Hectors right side.
3) Hector takes defensive steps straight back instead of angling away when any sort of kick comes his way. Boetsch will have to capitalize on this backward movement by throwing push kicks to set up for a takedown on Hectors right side (avoiding any uppercut). Boetsch has to initiate the takedown before Hector has a chance to settle and regain balance.
4) DO NOT throw low inside/outside leg kicks to Hectors legs! Hector will always take the kick & counter with punches and go for the takedown. The instructors at Top Team constantly teach this!!! Instead Boetsch should use front and rear push kicks that target H.L's knees to throw him off balance, set up punches and keep H.L at bay from moving forward.
5) Boetsch must constantly change levels against Hector. This will prevent Hector from locking in on a precise target, that being Boetsch’s chin. No fighters that have faced Hector are changing their level, which keep Hector off balance and puts him in a defensive mode that an attack is coming.
6) Boetsch must refrain from engaging any takedown without first setting it up with angling his punches or front push kicks.
7) From a defensive standpoint, Boetsch will have to weather the storm and get past the first round. I suspect that Hector will come out as usual, guns blazing and try to make a statement now the he is in the UFC. The level of competition in the UFC is quite different than what Hector is accustomed to (minus his two fights in pride which he lost). He either stands in front of you without much head movement/angling footwork or explodes straight forward which an inefficient way to fight high level MMA fighters
8) As most people already know, Hector gases very easily and is the type of fighter that will frustrate very easily if things don’t go his way. Boetsch must keep Hector guessing with lots of lateral foot movement and changing those levels to set up for a takedown or a knockout. It is mind boggling why opponents that face Hector go in there with a straight posture, chin exposed while letting Hector come to you and dictate the fight. You have to put pressure on Hector and make him think while tiring him out.
9) During training, Hector has been quite reckless towards other fighters in American Top Team (Coconut Creek) and tends to have a very bad temper. Most fighters have not exploited his weakness of this uncontrolled emotion. The fact is most people around Hector are very intimidated by this anger. Tim Boetsch NEEDS to get in Hectors head as Nick Diaz does to his opponents. There is an underlying vulnerability to Hector’s anger, which is the inability to maintain mental and emotional control in the face of perceived adversity.? Hector has a very fragile ego as evidenced by an incident that occurred during a brutal WRESTLING sparring session at American Top Team (Coconut Creek). A great fighter and really NICE guy, Nathan Coy, was frustrating Hector and shot in for a takedown. Nathan was working the single and would have taken Hector down very easily. However, Hector deviated from wrestling (again, this was just a wrestling session and no striking) and chose to furiously punch Mr. Coy in the back of the head. This led to Nathan having a concussion and taking off from training for about 10 days. I could almost guarantee that 95% of the fighters at American Top Team hope he loses this match so he could get a taste of his own medicine. The only guy at top team that probably wants him to win is his coach Marcus "Conan" Silveira. It baffles me how Conan allows this sort of man child behavior by Hector. Then again, look at Conan’s past.