I gotta go with Jeff Lacy because of Roy's lack of head movementwith his new defensive style and I don't see much of a chance of Roy countering with a big shot like he used to. He caught Calzaghe but so did Hopkins.
Lacy's not incredible but he' big strong and mediocre and that looks to be enough. However I think Roy probably saw something he liked and that's why he went with this fight, so maybe he knows something we don't.
Plus he's got a captain hook outfit, thems just bonus points.