More realistic odds

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POLL: More realistic odds?
yes 48% (14)
no 52% (15)
bustin_mma
12/27/08 12:42:47PM
I was just wondering if anyone else in the playground would like more realistic odds for next season.That way you wouldent have people winning $900,000 per event, props to they guy who did it by the way but I think it would be funner with less generous odds. Feedback please.
npayant
12/27/08 12:51:29PM

Posted by bustin_mma

I was just wondering if anyone else in the playground would like more realistic odds for next season.That way you wouldent have people winning $900,000 per event, props to they guy who did it by the way but I think it would be funner with less generous odds. Feedback please.



I have ALWAYS thought this.

Good call!

EDIT: But I must admit, it is pretty nice cashing in on some of the wacky odds whenever it happens.
grappler0000
12/27/08 1:05:54PM

Posted by bustin_mma

I was just wondering if anyone else in the playground would like more realistic odds for next season.That way you wouldent have people winning $900,000 per event, props to they guy who did it by the way but I think it would be funner with less generous odds. Feedback please.



You have to remember that he wagered 300k for the event. Picking underdogs in a parlay can net some big bucks. It's not as if he bet 1k and won 900k...they were able to bet wisely all season and have enough cash to bet big. Everyone on here has the same odds, so it's a level playing field.
kopower
12/27/08 2:24:49PM

Posted by grappler0000


Posted by bustin_mma

I was just wondering if anyone else in the playground would like more realistic odds for next season.That way you wouldent have people winning $900,000 per event, props to they guy who did it by the way but I think it would be funner with less generous odds. Feedback please.



You have to remember that he wagered 300k for the event. Picking underdogs in a parlay can net some big bucks. It's not as if he bet 1k and won 900k...they were able to bet wisely all season and have enough cash to bet big. Everyone on here has the same odds, so it's a level playing field.



Agreed Nicely said, all it takes is a big bet on a parlay to go wrong too lose most of your money. There are enough events per season to catch up or lose your money.
Pookie
12/27/08 5:42:17PM
I think its fine, we as the playground members dictate what the odds are, and normally only the smarter players are capable of picking out which odds are ridiculously one sided, power to the people i say keep it.
breakdown5
12/27/08 6:23:58PM

Posted by Pookie

I think its fine, we as the playground members dictate what the odds are, and normally only the smarter players are capable of picking out which odds are ridiculously one sided, power to the people i say keep it.



I agree. If the odds are seriously swayed by name value/recognition (ex. CB vs. Massenzio, Barry vs. Evenson) or some seriously one sided picks on the site, the better for the people who actually know whats up. The people who do research about the fights benefit from other peoples' laziness and stupidity. Keep it. It's like a bonus for not being a dummy.
npayant
12/28/08 8:04:37PM

Posted by Pookie

I think its fine, we as the playground members dictate what the odds are, and normally only the smarter players are capable of picking out which odds are ridiculously one sided, power to the people i say keep it.



I'd agree with you here if this was always the case (we the playground members dictating what the odds are), but there are too many times when things are screwy...

Take the next event (UFC 93) for example:

The picks so far for Henderson are 59% and for Franklin are 41%, yet the odds are: Henderson -105 and Franklin -125 (Franklins the favorite???)

Compare that to Siver (59% picked) and Mohr (41% picked) - the same as Henderson/Franklin - now these odds seem more correct - Siver -115 and Mohr +105

And yet another example from this card: Schafer 57% picked and Mendes 43% picked - the odds: Schafer -110 and Mendes -120 (Mendes the favorite???)

There are usually one or two examples like this on every single card - I'm just saying it would be easier to have realistic odds, so they were at least correct.

On the other hand, like someone already said - we all have the same odds to deal with, so it is a level playing field.

I'm really fine with whatever; I just want it to be consistent. If the majority of people are picking someone on this site, making him the "favorite" and I want to put my money on the "underdog," I'd like the "underdog" to be the underdog in betting (which always isn't the case as you can see by the examples I've shown above).

That's it....
FlashyG
12/28/08 9:39:01PM
I think the cause for that difference is that peoples picks don't dictate the odds, their bets do.

So just because 59% picked Henderson to win doesn't mean they've bet on him. From the look of things slightly more money has been wagered on Franklin even if the betters didn't pick him to win in their selections.

I really like the wagering system here, no sense changing a good thing

npayant
12/28/08 11:07:46PM

Posted by FlashyG

I think the cause for that difference is that peoples picks don't dictate the odds, their bets do.

So just because 59% picked Henderson to win doesn't mean they've bet on him. From the look of things slightly more money has been wagered on Franklin even if the betters didn't pick him to win in their selections.

I really like the wagering system here, no sense changing a good thing




No you're wrong here... I've read on here that they're determined by what people on the site are picking, among other things (none of which saying that their bets dictate the odds). There have been NUMEROUS threads on this topic over the last 3 seasons or so. I've pulled a number of old threads up and copied direct quotes from Mods/Admin. about how the betting lines are figured out:

"The odds update themselves every 24 hours or so as far as I know, depending on what the picks are, so a good number of people swayed the odds when they got their e-mails to make picks for the event."

"DotheMMAth said its tricky to get the wager odds updated,the site needs to be down for a while or something, so he hasnt been doing them much, ,its true they should be updated but its a bit late now i think ."

"Yeah, it slows the site way down to update odds because it takes so much into account, and we get a huge rush of people coming into the site to make their picks at the last minute, which is why the odds shifted like that. It was enough to make Ken-flo vs. Lauzon the hot bout."

"The algorithm, also gives more credence to the picks of people that have done well over a longer period of time with their picks, same as the rankings."

"Taken from the site About/Info section: "Fighter odds are based on an algorithm which factors in a variety of criteria from our users via the pick 'em game, fighter rankings, and more.'"

I found more...but thought this was enough. Believe me, this issue has been brought up a number of times. According to what I've heard from the Mods, the odds are supposed to guided by the MMAplayground members, but there are always screwed up odds on every card (if we're going by what people are picking). Ultimately, I don't care if it doesn't get fixed. I'd like it either way AND everyone gets the same odds, so it evens out. I would just like to put money on Franklin because he IS the underdog in real life and on this site according to users picks.......but when I go to do so, it has him as the favorite (a -125????) come on...



npayant
12/28/08 11:15:48PM

Posted by FlashyG

I think the cause for that difference is that peoples picks don't dictate the odds, their bets do.

So just because 59% picked Henderson to win doesn't mean they've bet on him. From the look of things slightly more money has been wagered on Franklin even if the betters didn't pick him to win in their selections.

I really like the wagering system here, no sense changing a good thing




Oh... and I checked the odds last night right after the site was updated and they showed up like this (before anyone would have had a chance to put money down on the fighters). So something must be weird with the algorithm that figures out what the odds are. It must be more than just picks, etc.
Mr_Dead_Sexy
12/29/08 6:47:02AM
I just keep hoping Rashad is an underdog.
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