Which underdogs had/has a better chance of winning? (ie Sonnen had a better chance of beating Jones than Diaz did of beating Henderson)
This is partially to put a couple of upcoming fights into perspective, but also to rank recent possible mismatches. Feel free to add your own matches to your list.
Here are my rankings, starting with the most likely to win (but still underdogs)...
1. Bigfoot Silva vs Overeem (I picked Bigfoot to win)
2. Jung vs Aldo (ability to exceed expectations and improve between fights gives him an increased chance)
3. Sonnen vs Jones (wasn't likely, but better chance than anyone beating Silva)
4. Weidman vs Silva (this is where my list really starts doubting the underdogs' chances)
5. Nate Diaz vs Henderson (expected a beating, and got it)
6. Bigfoot Silva vs Velasquez 2 (it was too soon for him)
7. Bonner vs Silva (more of an exhibition)
It would be neat if someone listed a "by the numbers" list of the most successful underdogs (number of wins as an underdog).