UFC 90 Previews, Predictions and Analysis

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10/21/08 6:14:00AM
We’re only days removed from a quality free card that we were able to enjoy courtesy of SpikeTV in North America, we’re only three days out from yet another card, UFC 90.

UFC 90 is headed by the widely regarded number one pound for pound fighter in the world, Anderson Silva. He’ll take on Canadian Patrick Cote in the main event.

This card has seen it’s fair share of changes in the weeks leading up to the event with injuries forcing out main card fighters Goran Reljic and Diego Sanchez.

Taking the place of Diego will be another top ten Welterweight in Josh Koscheck with the hard hitting Drew McFederies stepping in for Reljic.

With that said, my predictions and analysis for each of the televised fights (and some of the undercard):

Thales Leites vs Drew McFedries
Thales is an accomplished Brazillian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt. He holds a record of 4 - 1 in the UFC with two of his victories coming via stoppage (submission). Thales has always looked good to me, his lone loss in the UFC is to Kickboxer Martin Kampmann via decision.

Thales is riding a 4 fight win streak. However, one thing to note is that although he earned the victory over Nate Marquardt via Split Decision, the fight was definitely dominated by Marquardt. Marquardt was penalized twice during the match and lost two points for illegal blows.

Thales did get hit with a vicious illegal knee and chose to continue fighting but for the most part he was just hanging on after that point. I wouldn’t put too much stock in his “victory” over Marquardt. However, it does say a lot about his resilliency to stay in that fight until the end with the punishment that he received from Marquardt who is arguably one of the best Middleweights in the world.

Drew McFedries is a very hard hitting striker out of the Miletich Camp. McFedries is 3 - 3 in the UFC with losses coming to Patrick Cote, Martin Kampmann and most recently to Mike Massenzio via Kimura.

Drew is primarily a striker, he’s got a lot of power and has three victories via KO/TKO stoppage.

Thales showed he had a good chin in his fights with Marquardt and Kampmann. The possibility of a knockout for McFedries is always there but I think Thales will get the victory via submission. His ground game will be much better than McFedries.

Thales Leites via submission.

Sean Sherk Vs. Tyson Griffin
This should be one of the best fights on the card. Both of these guys are known for setting a very fast pace. These guys have a very similar skill set. They both have a background in wrestling, both guys have boxing skills and respectable stand up. Neither of them posses one punch knockout power or a dangerous submission game.

This fight is destined to go the distance, however, I wouldn’t expect a boring fight, it’ll probably be the exact opposite and may be the fight of the night.

Sean Sherk is the former Light Heavyweight Champion. He’s 32 - 3 in his Mixed Martial Arts career. His only losses have come to current Light Heavyweight Champion, BJ Penn, current Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre and former Welterweight Champion, Matt Hughes. He’s lost to only the very best fighters he’s faced.

He’s also got victories over some of the top Lightweights in the game today including, Kenny Florian, Hermes Franca and Nick Diaz.

Sherk always impresses me with his ground control, he seems to pass the guard of most guys with ease. The best evidence of this was his fight against BJJ Black Belt, Hermes Franca. Sherk managed to take Franca down at will, once he was down he transitioned from full guard into side control whenever he pleased. He did much the same in the fight against Florian. While he may not have stopped either fight, he dominated both.

Tyson Griffin is riding a 4 fight win streak, he holds a 5 - 1 record in the UFC with his only defeat coming to fellow top Lightweight prospect, Frankie Edgar.

Tyson always seems to be going at full speed. I’ve yet to see him be dominated in a fight, he’s always in the fight until the end, usually dominating it and controlling it.

Tyson has never really showed the ability to KO or TKO guys in the UFC but he does have a nice clean stand up game. Tyson, like Sherk, has always shown to have excellent control on the ground. Tyson also seems to have a very good ability to come out on top of scrambles. He usually ends up in the dominant position.

The only thing I am sure of is that the fight will almost definitely go the full three rounds.

I think Tyson will be the one looking to keep the fight standing while Sherk will be looking for the takedowns. I don’t think Tyson will be able to avoid Sherk taking him down and once down I think Sherk will be able to control him on the ground as he probably has a strength advantage over Tyson.

This should be a real test for Tyson Griffin but I think in the end, Sherk will prove too much for him. Sherk just seems like a stronger more experienced version of Tyson to me.

My prediction is Sean Sherk via decision.

If you've read this far and are curious about my other picks and thoughts, you can read them on my blog here:
UFC 90 Preview, Predictions and Analysis

There's no ads or anything like that, it's just a simple blog.

Anyways, I'm curious mostly about peoples thoughts on Werdum/Dos Santos as I'm not very familiar with Dos Santos.
10/21/08 10:30:55AM
I think Cote and Drew are decent bets. Although you are probably throwing your money away on Cote, Drew has a very good chance of knocking this guy out in my opinion. Even though my record may not agree! LMAO
10/21/08 11:34:03AM
Pretty good predictions imo. The only place I really disagreed with you is on Kos-Alves. Alves ftw baby!
10/21/08 11:40:30AM
sell over burkman....i think burkman is overated, and hes not even rated high....i think sell could make some waves at 170, not title shot waves tho...sell is the better striker and grappler

aurelio over franca....unless franca lands that one big punch, its aurelios fight to lose, hes got better ground and better boxing...the student will not become the master

miller over horwich...horwich is too hit and miss when it comes to performing, and those miller brothers are legit up and comers

fisher over gougerty....i wish he was still fight guillard, either way fisher is always fun to watch and i think experience and skill set is leaps and bounds about gougertys

lietes over mcfedries first rd sub.....as long as drew doesnt land that big punch, i think lietes vastly improved standup will make it easy for him to not have to wether any storm and set up a takedown for an easy breazy submission

maynard over clementi, decision.....clementi is a true vet and on a hot streak with better standup and submissions, but maynards power and good enough standup thrown in with his top notch wrestling will make give him the win

sherk over griffin decision.....sherks boxing is better, he just has no reach, griffins kickboxing is better but he just has no reach haha, but griffin nows how to get inside good to land his strikes....i dont think griffin can continously stop the sherk take down and i think thats what sherk is gonna revert back to after the penn fight after griffin starts peppering him with some shots....grind out a decision

werdum over santos first rd stoppage in any fashion he wants

alves over koscheck 2nd rd ko/tko......koschecks improved striking is not even close to being compared to alves, plus even if he lands a big shot, he doenst have the striking power to ko alves...i think kos will be able to take alves down, after a struggle to do so cuz alves takedown d is excellent...but i also think that koscheck wont be able to keep alves down and eventually catch a knee coming in that rocks him and leads to a finish

silva over cote, submission.....i dont think silva will not cote out...cote has the strongest chin in the mw divison world wide (even stronger than lebens or hendos)...cote has the boxing skills and power to hang in there before ending up on the ground in a scamble fashion and being submitted...similar ending to silva vs hendo i think......but ive said it before and ill say it again, if anybody in the mw division is gonna buster douglas silva, its gonna be cote.....but my money isnt on it, ha

10/22/08 2:37:03AM
i hate when people talk about leites' victory over marquardt as if it was a numbers fluke
thales dropped him hard in the first round and was dominating only to be met with an illegal blow that, naturally, made it harder for him to fight at 100% (that's why they penalize fighters for illegal blows.) nate is a huge and well-rounded mma fighter but he earned the L in that fight.
10/22/08 9:58:04AM
UFC 90-

Main Card-

Middleweight Championship bout : Anderson Silva vs Patrick Cote
Anderson Silva is the p4p best fighter in the world and Patrick Cote is the number 10 MW in the world, i really dont think that Cote has a chance at beating Silva, sure he have a good chin, so did Chris Leben see how that turned out, Silva better in the stand up and better on the ground, Cote have good cardio but he wont get to show it against Silva i say Silva puts him away in the 2nd round submission

Welterweight bout : Thiago Alves vs Josh Koscheck
Thiago Alves is i think the best striker in the WW divison, sure Koscheck is a great wrestler and has some newly inpovered stand up , but i'm going with Alves to win this one, Josh have never been KO'd so i think Alves can be the 1st to do that should be a great fight but Alve 3 Ko

Heavyweight bout : Fabricio Werdum vs Junior dos Santos
Fabricio Werdum is the number 6 HW in the world right now, great submissions and good stand up, i have no idea who Santos is but i dont think he has a chance as long as Werdum does not take he lightly, so Werdum 1 submission (Submission of the Night)

Lightweight bout : Sean Sherk vs Tyson Griffin
1st of all this is a cadet for the Fight of the Night, Sean Sherk coming off his lose to BJ Penn, and Tyson coming off a win over Marcus Aurelio, both these guys are cardio masters, i think Sherk has alittle bit better cardio but still Sean being the number 3 LW this is a huge fight for Tyson to get his spot in the top, in the stand up i am going with Tyson on the ground Sherk so it really depends where this fight goes, i think Sherk can get Tyson down and i think Tyson can stop his shots, if i had to pick someone i would say Sean Sherk wins hes only been beaten my top fighters GSP, BJ Penn, and Matt Hughes
so i'm picking Sean Sherk Decision

Lightweight bout : Gray Maynard vs Rich Clementi
Gray Maynard has looked amazing hes last few fights, and so has Rich but i think Gray can take him down and pound him out, not saying that Rich is a crapy fighter just Gray is a super wrestler so Gray Maynard 3rd TKO

Preliminary Card-

Middleweight but : Thales Leites vs Drew McFedries
Thales Leites submission wizard, and Drew has been submited before , to win this fight for Drew he needs to keep it on the feet and stay off the ground , but Thales i think can get him down and then its all down hill for Drew so Thales Leites 2rd Submission

Lightweight bout : Spencer Fisher vs Shannon Gugerty
Fisher KO 1st round!! who is Shannon Gugerty , poor guy

Middleweight bout : Matt Horwich vs Dan Miller
Matt former IFL champ good skilles 1st fight in the UFC , Dan also Former IFL champ(won the title in :36 sec kneebar) and CFFC champ, i call this the Fight of IFL champs! lol i like Dan Miller in this fight by submission

Lightweight bout : Hermes Franca vs Marcus Aurelio
battle of the Brazilins, both good ground skills, Hermes better on the feet, so i think France can KO Marcus

Welterweight bout : Josh Burkman vs Pete Sell
Pete , Pete, Pete he has heart got to give him that, and Josh has good power then again so does Pete so , what the hell i'm going with Pete Sell my TKO its about time for him to win a fight again

10/22/08 8:40:42PM
Thales hasn't really fought a striker with serious power like McFedries so it will definitely be a test for his chin. However I still believe in his takedown ability and he will sub Drew in round 1.

I would like to see Tyson Griffin do well in the LW division so I have to go with him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Sherk pull off the UD.

I don't know for sure but I don't think Kos has ever been knocked out, then again neither had Parisyan, but I feel that Josh can pull it off.

It would be kind of interesting if Patrick Cote won against Anderson Silva, even though A. Silva is my favorite fighter. But I still think that Yushin Okami is overdue with a deserving title shot, so I want A. Silva by vicious KO.

I would also like to see Pete Sell (mostly because I feel sorry for the guy) and Rich Clementi to win their fights.
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