My 3 picks for Parlay UFC 129

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Aleks_Smash
4/29/11 8:12:30PM
Shields, Bocek, Diaz...

Let go and let God deal with it...
Twenty20Dollars
4/29/11 8:30:26PM
Good luck with Shields.

I'm parlaying Bocek though.
Copenhagen
4/29/11 9:53:15PM
I'm pretty sure I'll parlay Machida, Aldo, and Bocek.
FastKnockout
4/29/11 10:00:12PM
In my opinion, you will be taking big risks with all three. I have GSP, Henderson, and MacDonald winning.

Shields and Bocek are both underdogs.. and I think Diaz MIGHT be, can't remember.. So if they do happen to win, you scored big.
Budgellism
4/29/11 10:14:19PM

Posted by FastKnockout

In my opinion, you will be taking big risks with all three. I have GSP, Henderson, and MacDonald winning.

Shields and Bocek are both underdogs.. and I think Diaz MIGHT be, can't remember.. So if they do happen to win, you scored big.



This
Aleks_Smash
4/29/11 11:05:58PM
i studied GSP and Shields records in comparison since 2004 and shields and fought just as tough competition including harder competition.

Diaz will win. Judges can only screw him for so long. plus he is ready to start finishing opponents and take on top 5 comp in lw and ww.

Bocek is the real deal. henderson got controlled and outclassed by pettis. bocek has UFC experience and he will submit an already submittable hendersom IMO.
Budgellism
4/29/11 11:31:07PM

Posted by Aleks_Smash

i studied GSP and Shields records in comparison since 2004 and shields and fought just as tough competition including harder competition.

Diaz will win. Judges can only screw him for so long. plus he is ready to start finishing opponents and take on top 5 comp in lw and ww.

Bocek is the real deal. henderson got controlled and outclassed by pettis. bocek has UFC experience and he will submit an already submittable hendersom IMO.



I disagree with your first paragraph and slightly with your third. How can you say Shields has faced tougher competition? I'm curious as to who you're talking about? Henderson? I would say Fitch at WW is more impressive a victory than Hendo at MW in this stage of his career.

With the third paragraph I disagree with you saying Bendo was out outclassed by Pettis. I had that fight 48-47, I don't know about you.
Aleks_Smash
4/30/11 12:03:02AM

Posted by Budgellism


I disagree with your first paragraph and slightly with your third. How can you say Shields has faced tougher competition? I'm curious as to who you're talking about? Henderson? I would say Fitch at WW is more impressive a victory than Hendo at MW in this stage of his career.

With the third paragraph I disagree with you saying Bendo was out outclassed by Pettis. I had that fight 48-47, I don't know about you.



look at the competition between the two from 06 - now

GSP from 06 has beaten

bj penn 2x's -155er
matt hughes 2x's
josh koschek 2 x's
Matt serra - 155er
Thiago Alves
Dan Hardy


Jake Shields from 06 has beaten

Dave Menne
yushin Okami - 185er
Carlos Condit
Steve Berger
Ray Stienbiess
Ido Pariente
Renato Verissimo
Mike Pyle
Nick Thompson
Paul Daley
Robbie Lawler -185er
jason Miller - 185er
Dan Henderson - 185er-Strikeforce 205 champ
Martin Kampmann

Both have faced tough competition but im going with jake to take it.

Budgellism
4/30/11 1:24:03AM

Posted by Aleks_Smash


Posted by Budgellism


I disagree with your first paragraph and slightly with your third. How can you say Shields has faced tougher competition? I'm curious as to who you're talking about? Henderson? I would say Fitch at WW is more impressive a victory than Hendo at MW in this stage of his career.

With the third paragraph I disagree with you saying Bendo was out outclassed by Pettis. I had that fight 48-47, I don't know about you.



look at the competition between the two from 06 - now

GSP from 06 has beaten

bj penn 2x's -155er
matt hughes 2x's
josh koschek 2 x's
Matt serra - 155er
Thiago Alves
Dan Hardy


Jake Shields from 06 has beaten

Dave Menne
yushin Okami - 185er
Carlos Condit
Steve Berger
Ray Stienbiess
Ido Pariente
Renato Verissimo
Mike Pyle
Nick Thompson
Paul Daley
Robbie Lawler -185er
jason Miller - 185er
Dan Henderson - 185er-Strikeforce 205 champ
Martin Kampmann

Both have faced tough competition but im going with jake to take it.




Fitch (you left out) who was and is the #2 WW in the world is on GSP's list. Alves who is probably at number 4 in the world at WW is on that list. Hughes when gsp beat him the first time was the number 1 WW in the world. Those guys alone should be enough. I'm talking respective weight classes here and gsp's list completely trumps Shields'. Shields has faced some great guys but none of them have been even close to capable of what gsp can do.

At this point in his career Hendo is a natural 205 pounder, not a 185 pounder. He gassed himself pretty badly after not being able to finish Shields. I'm not taking anything away from Shields, I think he'll beat most WWs out there but gsp is not on that list.
FastKnockout
4/30/11 1:56:28AM
Budgellism has the GSP/Shields issue of your opinion covered. I agree with everything he's said. As for Diaz, bad decisions aren't his issue. His weakness against strong wrestlers has been exploited, and until he can dig up some decent takedown defense, he won't make it in the top five of Lightweight or Welterweight. Also, I disagree that Bocek will beat Henderson. While Bocek has impressive submission offense, don't forget Henderson has a strong rep for escaping submissions. Add in that he has the better wrestling and striking game, and you have a winner in Henderson.
BeeR
4/30/11 11:13:35AM
bocek
rory McD
machida


kingsmasher
4/30/11 12:43:08PM
Macdonald will beat diaz book it

before I said FOTN take that back a boring lay n pray but Mac wins..
Frank_Mirror
4/30/11 12:46:03PM

Posted by Copenhagen

I'm pretty sure I'll parlay Machida, Aldo, and Bocek.




Hominick is gonna bust your parlay up.
Aleks_Smash
4/30/11 1:59:00PM

Posted by kingsmasher

Macdonald will beat diaz book it

before I said FOTN take that back a boring lay n pray but Mac wins..



Macdonald is 1-1 in the UFC.
Diaz is 8-4 in the UFC.

Diaz is 6-3 at 155 in the UFC and most recently 2-1 at 170 and he should have got the decision adianst Kim.

Rory is a tough fighter but Diaz is a veteran at this point and he will make a point with a victory over rory.

Aleks_Smash
4/30/11 2:00:30PM

Posted by Frank_Mirror


Posted by Copenhagen

I'm pretty sure I'll parlay Machida, Aldo, and Bocek.




Hominick is gonna bust your parlay up.



Jiu_Boxu
4/30/11 7:16:57PM
Aldo, Lyoto & Bendo (he'll decision Bocek)
Aleks_Smash
4/30/11 8:53:33PM
wow. respect for macdonald. diaz got tool-bagged.
Aleks_Smash
5/1/11 12:22:23AM
absolute worst parlay ever. suicide watch list lol
Budgellism
5/1/11 12:27:47AM

Posted by Aleks_Smash

absolute worst parlay ever. suicide watch list lol



Hate to say I told you so
Aleks_Smash
5/1/11 12:39:57AM

Posted by Budgellism


Posted by Aleks_Smash

absolute worst parlay ever. suicide watch list lol



Hate to say I told you so



no you don't haha
FastKnockout
5/1/11 1:39:11AM
Like I said before the event, all three were big risks. Better luck next time.
Budgellism
5/1/11 10:57:32AM

Posted by Aleks_Smash


Posted by Budgellism


Posted by Aleks_Smash

absolute worst parlay ever. suicide watch list lol



Hate to say I told you so



no you don't haha



lol, good point
Aether
5/1/11 11:42:27AM

Posted by Aleks_Smash


Posted by kingsmasher

Macdonald will beat diaz book it

before I said FOTN take that back a boring lay n pray but Mac wins..



Macdonald is 1-1 in the UFC.
Diaz is 8-4 in the UFC.

Diaz is 6-3 at 155 in the UFC and most recently 2-1 at 170 and he should have got the decision adianst Kim.

Rory is a tough fighter but Diaz is a veteran at this point and he will make a point with a victory over rory.




No offense but this is a very poor method for picking fights. The numbers in the win/loss columns can't really tell the story of how close the fight was, or how the skillsets of different fighters match up.

Rory's loss is a pretty good example of why you shouldn't really look too much at numbers. Carlos Condit is higher up the ladder than anyone Diaz has faced, and Rory beat him pretty soundly for the first two rounds. If the fight continued for another 10 seconds or so he most likely would have won the decision.
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