UFC 92 Parlay Thoughts

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robnashville
12/23/08 5:47:24PM
Nog -275
Okami -315
Dollaway -265

putting down 19k on with a payoff of 28k
laying off that bet by putting 19k on Massenzio at +250, paying off 47.5k....

There aren't a lot of mispriced guys on this card, like say Miller was on the Fight for the troops card or maybe a Maia against Quarry, where those guys were solid locks that should have been -200 instead of the low-100's, those are the types of guys that add tons of value to a parlay, with little risk ...... the two lower odd fights on this card are the Rampage and Forrest fights, and those fights are too 50-50 for me to be comfortable with......

Nog and Okami are locks in my book, with Massenzio being a good enough dog at those odds to possibly pull off an upset....I generally look at the real life odds... Joey Oddessa has the odds like this... (oddessa is pretty cool, he was in the fantasy football league i was in this past year).....

CB Dollaway Vs. Mike Massenzio
CB Dollaway -150
Mike Massenzio +120

Both Dollaway and Massenzio are wrestlers, with Dollaway holding a victory over Massenzio at the national junior college finals, but I think that Massenzio has maybe a little better sub game than CB,.... Massenzio looks to have no stand-up game, I think that CB should be a solid fave but not that high so laying some money here..another possible play would be the Chonan vs Blackburn Fight, Blackburn has been known to surprise with his hands on occasion based on his performance in the IFL, and Chonan has been Ko'ed by Baroni, so he is susceptible to getting caught.....


thoughts?
SpiderSilva
12/23/08 5:56:17PM
I went with a parlay of Rashad and Rampage with extra on Rashad
dannyfrank
12/23/08 7:26:11PM
i have a parlay with nog and wandy with some extra on nog. problem is my bankroll is so small i can only win about $200
SpiderSilva
12/23/08 7:56:57PM
I feel your pain
robnashville
12/23/08 8:54:45PM
hey i've been there too. i'm doing good this year but flamed out last season.... i was around 30th after 7 or 8 events and was looking for a safe bet.... Nate Marquardt is usually a good, safe bet ...nice earner...bet my whole wad......and he decides to lose his mind in the fight against Thales Leites.... i dropped over 25 grand on that fight...brutal.... i've been good this year but also a bit lucky..... that burns eye pok not getting overturned helped as well as massenzio saving my bacon on a layoff bet .... one of my legs on a parlay lost.... so massenzio had to win for me....
Pookie
12/24/08 1:40:08AM
Al-turk
DJSyko
12/24/08 11:36:43AM
i have 500 on Rampage, Evans and Nog with an extra 500 on Rampage for my first bets.

Okami should win but something is telling me that Lister is going to sub him and Okami's odds are poor to even warrant a bet IMO.
ohiostate1016
12/24/08 12:11:24PM
Since it's the last event of the season, and because my bankroll is crap, I'm playing a little dangerous on this card, trying to end up in a decent position to end the season.

Here's what I did for my final bet of the season:

$215 Parlay on Forrest (-200), Al Turk (+325), and Massenzio (+250) to possibly win $4582.

I'm going back and forth on my other bet. I'm either going to put the other $215 on Massenzio or Al Turk. Both are great upset bets, given the type of payoff that they'll get if you win. I don't think that either really deserves to be a huge underdog, especially Massenzio, who is more rounded than Dollaway. Another good bet is Blackburn at (+280), but I don't think he's going to pull off the upset over Chonan. Barry at almost even money might be worth throwing a bunch of cash on here.

Bad bets on this card:

-Picking either fighter in the Forrest vs. Rashad fight for a single bet. The fight is just too close and neither fighter pays off enough to risk much here.

-Lister at (+290). Maybe if I could get (+350) or more, but 290 isn't enough of a payoff to take the risk.

-Mike Wessel at (+370). I just don't think that he has a shot against Hardonk.

Those are my two cents, but I've been wrong before (as you can tell from my bankroll). I think I've really learned a lot this season when it comes to betting, so hopefully I'll be able to compete with a nice bankroll after the end of this season.
SpiderSilva
12/24/08 5:25:30PM
wow most of us are some broke mofo's maybe everyone should not pay any attention to what we are betting
TequilaMan2000
12/25/08 11:18:22AM
I went 8-0 for parlays this season, and then on my last (9th event) parlay, I lost $100,000... argghhh.... and i actually had Lawlor in my parlay, but switched it to Nover at the last second...


I don't know about this one... Rampage should definitely NOT be in a parlay. Fighters that should be in your parlay should be near-sure-things (almost guaranteed wins).

I think Nog, Hammill, CB and Hardonk are all decent candidates for a parlay.

Rashad-Griffin are too close, IMO, as are Wandy-Page... so i won't be putting them in my parlay.
RedCloud
12/25/08 5:22:08PM
Nog, Silva, Lister
500 gets me 3,500.

(yet im not as rich as tequilaman so maybe i should be taking notes)
robnashville
12/26/08 12:25:14PM

Posted by TequilaMan2000

I went 8-0 for parlays this season, and then on my last (9th event) parlay, I lost $100,000... argghhh.... and i actually had Lawlor in my parlay, but switched it to Nover at the last second...


I don't know about this one... Rampage should definitely NOT be in a parlay. Fighters that should be in your parlay should be near-sure-things (almost guaranteed wins).

I think Nog, Hammill, CB and Hardonk are all decent candidates for a parlay.

Rashad-Griffin are too close, IMO, as are Wandy-Page... so i won't be putting them in my parlay.



Yeah, the TUF finale...i wanted to move up the charts and maybe get a badge but i don't watch TUF anymore and had no confidence in those guys or my ability to pick them .... i thought of putting it all on wilson gouviea until he came in over weight and that made me hesitant to pull the trigger...

I may just end up loading up on Nog and trying to get over 100k for the season, ....no badge but a very respectable season. YOu got twice my bankroll and are in 10th....gonna have to go out on a limb in a big way to catch the top 10 guys...
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