Ok i need some numbers guys. I've looked at all the pros picks and BETTING odds. i just want the playgrounds opinion on odds to win. Not betting, just for the win.
I got probably 1 in 8 chance he pulls this W out.
If you check out the stats based on picks here so far, it's more like 1 in 25. I checked a little earlier and it's 96% for Silva.
Whatever the odds are, it's pretty fricken obvious no one really expects a win from Thales. Not that you can blame anyone for wanting to pick Anderson.
Heck, I'd probably put some money down just on those circumstances alone. No one thought Serra would win the first time against Georgie boy either.
Let's say the odds are:
-some bizarre freak occurrence (flying scissor locks, illegal DQ, etc.)= 1 in 30
-win due to mistake on Anderson's part (lapse in concentration, bad judgment)= 1 in 20
-legitimate win due to Thales' own abilities= 1 in 30
Total = about 1 in 8.5
Im definitely puttin some money on Leites. If Anderson goes to the ground Leites has a legitimate chance to win..... but i doubt it will happen.
So i think the odds should be a little lower than they are maybe 1 to 7-7.5 favoring Anderson.