Mathematical Model of the NFL: » Off Topic » Off Topic » Mathematical Model of the NFL:
10/14/07 11:14:14AM
For those of you who haven't yet seen what I'm doing here, I'm attemting to prove that wagering on sports IS a form of value investing, if it is actually approached AS investing. Wagering on sports is really about "finding value" in the offered wagers. Efficiency mis-matches on the field need to be discovered, first, and these, then, in turn, need to be matched-up with inefficiencies in the point spread(s) offered. Each week, there are only a small handful of wagers that are actually mis-priced (undervalued), and these few cases are what I search for. The math underlying this is my own, and I'm not fully ready to reveal the underlying concepts. I do believe that I'm the only one attempting this with football -- I've found 2 particularly valueable stats (of my own creation) which seem to have enormous predictive value in determining the outcome of football games, particularly when combined with the idea of adding points given by the spread. These two statistics of mine don't seem to be available anywhere else, and the thought has ocurred to me that I ought to patent them.

I may very well do just exactly that.

Last week, my NFL picks versus the spread earned a return on invested capital of 14.54%, which I think has to be considered a solid week in any investment climate -- any investment climate that I have ever heard of, in any case.

So, if this is the sort of thing that interests you, have a look.

10/14/07 12:07:42PM
Nice work! I personally bet on basketball and can't wait for the season to start. I find what you are trying to do very interesting and I will be interested to see how this turns out.
10/14/07 12:23:10PM
interesting man !!

but , do you take in consideration , all the interception and fumble who sometimes changes dramaticaly the outcome of a game ?

we saw many times a deflected ball been intercepted and the result of the game was completely change, also, a bad snap like in last series with romo mishandleling the ball and the kick did not happened because of that.

it must be very hard to take all this stuff in consideration. LOL

10/14/07 7:11:36PM
if you got it you got it
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