I definitely feel your pain! This fight is closer than the site's pick percentages show. To me, this is a 55/45 fight for Nate. Nate has the edge in experience and quality of opponents, as you already mentioned and I feel that will get him the win. Thales BJJ rates higher than Nate's imo and that could be a problem. However, Nate has only been submitted twice in his career and his last submission loss was nearly 5 years ago. Yes, anything can happen in MMA, but I feel Nate should be able to negate any attempts thrown his way. There is a chance that Thales could pull off a slick submission though, but I see Nate winning by decision. Hope this helps.