Not enough people are giving Shogun his due credit. This guy was a world beater back in pride and if he can return to that form this fight might be a lot different than people expect.
I doubt he will actually be patient though... the difference is he has an intelligent/technical aggression. He attacks openings vs. just attacking whenever. I see this being a competitive fight for about three rounds with Machida getting hit more often than we're used to. Then late in the third or early in the fourth shogun will get put to sleep when machida gets the right shot in.
I think an under looked aspect of this fight however is Shogun's ground game. Everyone assumes this will stay standing but Shogun might be able to get machida down. We haven't see much of his guard and we all know how dangerous shogun is from the top.
Fact of the matter is while I'm picking Machida I don't think so many people should be. This could easily be a hot bout and the playground seems to be off the odds here. I think someone betting on Shogun could easily be in for a big pay day...