the line on hughes gsp

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jomatty
12/12/07 7:33:02AM
the largest sports bet ive ever made was on hughes gsp 2. i won a lot of money (real money, not play money) betting on gsp at +160. the line was eventually bet down until gsp was a favorite and i almost laid off some of my action, but im awfully glad i didnt. rarely do you get the opportunity to bet someone as a significant underdog, who you think is actually the favorite but thats the opportunity that was presented. most good mma bets are very different situations though and i usually find that the best bets are ones that you will lose the majority of the time.

im not much of a sports bettor, but i do play poker for a living, so gambling in general interests me. im always on the look out for an edge. most of the time in mma, this translates into betting the underdogs. a lot of people seem to not understand gambling principles and hesitate to bet on someone that is going to lose considerably more often than they will win, but this is, imho, where the money usually is when it comes to mma betting.

this is what the case is in the GSP/hughes fight that is coming up. Matt hughes is currently at like +345. this to me represents a lot of value. i think the correct price is probably somewhere slightly less than +200.Sure Matt got his ass kicked last time, and the same very well may happen this time around, but Matt is a world class competitor and people should not forget just how dominant he was for a very long time in the ww division. When you couple that with the fact that GSP is taking the fight on short notice, and has the weight of the world on his shoulders, there is no way that he is that big of a favorite. Hughes is gonna have a good gameplan and my guess is that he is gonna get ready like never before, because he knows exactly what he is up against this time around.

Do not confuse this with me saying that i think hughes will win this fight. I think that GSP wins twice as often as Hughes does. If that assesment is correct then there is a lot of value in betting hughes. it is a tough matchup as hughes is gonna have a very tough time getting gsp on his back, and gsp's stand up edge is significant, but i still cannot imagine that hughes is anywhere near a 3.5-1 dog in this fight.

this is just my opinion and im curious to hear what the rest of you guys think about this...
madmarck
12/12/07 9:07:51AM
i agree that Hughes shouldnt be a huge Underdog. Because your right. He is a great fighter with amazing ability. But so is GSP. Most People are just going off the Last fight between them and GSP/Koscheck.
bullettdodger
12/12/07 12:40:21PM
Yeah its almost disrespectful to the former WW champ to be thought of as an underdog so substantially so. maybe 2-1 like was said above, is a little more accurate or fair.
atlas777
12/12/07 1:33:30PM
You can never count out Hughes he has great wrestling and BJJ he messed up in his last fight by trying to focus on hs striking as good as it may be it wasnt as good as GSP's i think Hughes just needs to focus on what got him the title and what made him the legned he is today and he will be fine.
Basshandsome
12/12/07 3:07:53PM
MMAplayground tends to have different lines than real betting sites which is fine. The line I found on real betting sites (Bet365 and BetUS) is:

GSP: -240
Hughes: +190


I think this line is more accurate to show how close the fight may be... because in MMA you never know for sure.
Svartorm
12/12/07 3:54:01PM
Good post, and I agree that Hughes might be worth betting on.......if I had anymore fantasy dollars. I think I put them all on Radev.
stock
12/12/07 3:54:16PM

Posted by Basshandsome

MMAplayground tends to have different lines than real betting sites which is fine. The line I found on real betting sites (Bet365 and BetUS) is:

GSP: -240
Hughes: +190


I think this line is more accurate to show how close the fight may be... because in MMA you never know for sure.



That pretty much spot on to what sportsinteraction.com has for the fight. I think those odds are pretty much perfect (not too much juice either).

Given those odds, you should only bet on Hughes if you feel he has better than a 34% chance of winning.
You should only bet on GSP if feel he has better than a 71% chance of winning.
ufcboss
12/13/07 2:57:50AM
Matt Hughes, Right now is in a paddock on his farm, Shooting on bull's and horse's, Getting ready take GSP down and hold him there for 25 minute's. That is his gameplan.

And it might just work, Hughes is a good bet.

Excuse my sarcasim, But it's his best chance. He will not get an armbar or a KO.

But save ya cash, WAR GSP!
jomatty
12/13/07 5:38:36AM
+190 seems about right to me. i dont think i could pick at that price. at +345 or whatever it is a no brainer and im loading up on hughes, regardless of the fact that ill usually lose the bet.


"And it might just work, Hughes is a good bet.

Excuse my sarcasim, But it's his best chance. He will not get an armbar or a KO.

But save ya cash, WAR GSP!"



hmm i think your missing the entire point of betting if you are thinking that it is a good bet and saying to save your cash. thats not how you need to approach sports betting.
matinbomby
12/25/07 4:17:43PM

Posted by jomatty

the largest sports bet ive ever made was on hughes gsp 2. i won a lot of money (real money, not play money) betting on gsp at +160. the line was eventually bet down until gsp was a favorite and i almost laid off some of my action, but im awfully glad i didnt. rarely do you get the opportunity to bet someone as a significant underdog, who you think is actually the favorite but thats the opportunity that was presented. most good mma bets are very different situations though and i usually find that the best bets are ones that you will lose the majority of the time.

im not much of a sports bettor, but i do play poker for a living, so gambling in general interests me. im always on the look out for an edge. most of the time in mma, this translates into betting the underdogs. a lot of people seem to not understand gambling principles and hesitate to bet on someone that is going to lose considerably more often than they will win, but this is, imho, where the money usually is when it comes to mma betting.

this is what the case is in the GSP/hughes fight that is coming up. Matt hughes is currently at like +345. this to me represents a lot of value. i think the correct price is probably somewhere slightly less than +200.Sure Matt got his ass kicked last time, and the same very well may happen this time around, but Matt is a world class competitor and people should not forget just how dominant he was for a very long time in the ww division. When you couple that with the fact that GSP is taking the fight on short notice, and has the weight of the world on his shoulders, there is no way that he is that big of a favorite. Hughes is gonna have a good gameplan and my guess is that he is gonna get ready like never before, because he knows exactly what he is up against this time around.

Do not confuse this with me saying that i think hughes will win this fight. I think that GSP wins twice as often as Hughes does. If that assesment is correct then there is a lot of value in betting hughes. it is a tough matchup as hughes is gonna have a very tough time getting gsp on his back, and gsp's stand up edge is significant, but i still cannot imagine that hughes is anywhere near a 3.5-1 dog in this fight.

this is just my opinion and im curious to hear what the rest of you guys think about this...

RangerLee
12/28/07 12:55:48PM
Due to mmaplayground giving Hughes such a large pay out, it was more then worth it for me to put 400 on him. If he loses, so what, 400, but the pay out will be more then worth it if he wins.
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