Why is Kuniyoshi Hironaka an underdog?

MMAPlayground.com » Community » MMA Playground Game Talk » Why is Kuniyoshi Hironaka an underdog?
aegion
9/14/07 11:29:10AM
I was looking at Fight Night 11 and saw that Kuniyoshi Hironaka is a +330 underdog in his fight with Thiago Alves.

They both have records of 11-3 and both have a loss to Jon Fitch. Except Hironaka lost to him via decision and Alves lost via TKO. I think losing via decision is better than losing by TKO so I bet all my money on Hironaka for this fight. What do you guys think?
tepid55
9/14/07 11:35:54AM
This is a horrible match-up for Alves. Hironaka is a black belt in Judo and BJJ.
szucconi
9/14/07 12:51:04PM

Posted by aegion

I was looking at Fight Night 11 and saw that Kuniyoshi Hironaka is a +330 underdog in his fight with Thiago Alves.

They both have records of 11-3 and both have a loss to Jon Fitch. Except Hironaka lost to him via decision and Alves lost via TKO. I think losing via decision is better than losing by TKO so I bet all my money on Hironaka for this fight. What do you guys think?



You make a good point, but I can't bet against a guy named Thiago, it never works out. If you think the line is off by a mile then that’s where you should put your money. That is sort of how lines work. The exception to that is this site because the line can move and your bet never locks in at one set of odds. If you like Hironaka at +330 then make a bet, but keep an eye on the odds as the event gets closer. The line on bodog for Hironaka is +180 so I would expect it to go down a little on mmaplayground.
aegion
9/14/07 3:06:47PM
Thanks for the replies everyone.

szucconi please tell me you're joking, not betting against someone just because their name is "Thiago"? lol.

Maybe that's it though, there are a lot of good fighters named Thiago and perhaps they just blurred together in everyone's head. And historically the UFC hasn't brought over the best competition from Japan, Yushin Okami being one the few exceptions, so people automatically expect Japanese fighters to lose. That's the best explanation I can come up with.

Here's something else I just noticed, not only did they both lose to Jon Fitch but the fought him within 4 months of each other. So we can reasonably assume that Jon Fitch was the same fighter when he fought each of them, 4 months isn't long enough to drammatically change in abilities.
szucconi
9/14/07 3:26:34PM

Posted by aegion

Thanks for the replies everyone.

szucconi please tell me you're joking, not betting against someone just because their name is "Thiago"? lol.

Maybe that's it though, there are a lot of good fighters named Thiago and perhaps they just blurred together in everyone's head. And historically the UFC hasn't brought over the best competition from Japan, Yushin Okami being one the few exceptions, so people automatically expect Japanese fighters to lose. That's the best explanation I can come up with.

Here's something else I just noticed, not only did they both lose to Jon Fitch but the fought him within 4 months of each other. So we can reasonably assume that Jon Fitch was the same fighter when he fought each of them, 4 months isn't long enough to drammatically change in abilities.



Its called the Thiago rule. It simply states that you always pick guys named Thiago. Also, it is a joke, but so are my picks. Don't sleep on Alves, he is still the favorite, but I like your logic. I still think Thiago will win, but I might place a bet on Hironaka if the odds stay this far apart.
Conartist
9/17/07 4:22:43AM
Yea, Hironaka has a much better ground game than Thiago. I'm picking him for this fight too. He also beat Nick Diaz by split decision.

(EDIT: Then again, that's assuming that Nick was smoking enough Mary Jane to try to dull the pain from Hironaka. )
BerndRealBad
9/18/07 6:48:00AM
I put all my money on this fight, the odds were just too good. You could make the case that yes, he is a great BJJ fighter, but Thiago Alves also crushed a great BJJ fighter in Tony DeSouza. Still, Hironaka has a better chin and defense on his feet I think, and I believe that he'll frustrate the crap out of a returning Alves. I have all my money and a decision win for Hironaka.
ORIF
9/19/07 4:26:05PM
I decided to put 500 on Hironaka. I might be kicking myself later for not throwing more down but I'd like to throw some on 76 as well.
Scott_Revels
9/19/07 4:34:15PM
Kuniyoshi is the fighter out of all of them that I was willing to bet money on when I didn't pick him. Though every thing tells me I should pick him, I didn't. Something about Alves makes me think that Hironaka is going to come out in the loser group..
Stickan
9/19/07 5:45:13PM
Alves isn't easy to keep on the ground and his stand-up is way better. I just think Alves unfortuntealy will come out on top.
guru_of_grapple
9/19/07 5:58:52PM
I agree that the odds are kind of off, but I still think Alves is the favorite. I feel that his skills noticeably improved in each of his fights in the UFC. His TD defense was excellent against Desouza and he showed that he can maintain top position against a great BJJ guy if he's in that situation.
Related Topics