Interesting betting/pick pattern for EliteXC

MMAPlayground.com » Community » MMA Playground Game Talk » Interesting betting/pick pattern for EliteXC
DJRokyManson
11/11/07 12:43:41PM
First off, congrats to KJ Noons for becoming the first EliteXC 160lb champ. He completely dismantled Nick Diaz.

A good number of MMAPlayground members won big with Noons. I wasn't one of them. I lost $300 of my fake money on Diaz. Fortunately, I put a little more than $1000 on Jake Shields, so I still came out ahead.

But unlike 10 of the top 15 event earners, I picked Diaz and bet on Diaz.

10 of the top 15 event earners bet Noons, but picked Diaz. 2 of the top 15 made no picks. The only 3 of the top 15 that both picked and bet Noons were rudimarfederigo04, urogoth and HowDidIWiin.

I'm not sure how I feel about this. Obviously, we should all play to win. But, really, how smart of a betting strategy is this?

Overall, only the top 2 event money earners have a high season ranking, wrona666 at #16 and DrWack at #104. The #3 event money earner, bruisermoore30, has an overall season ranking at #660. My event earning rank was only #478, but my overall season rank so far is #222.

I'm all for betting an underdog when I believe in them, but if I'm gonna have the balls to bet them, I'm gonna have the balls to pick them too!
Scott_Revels
11/11/07 1:24:48PM
I was talking about this in another thread. I was one of the guys who risked all his money on Noke. I told everyone it was the best chance to take a lead, and it was until Noons beat Diaz. Now the following isn't directed to the people who put all their money on Noons, because they were risking everything on him, like I was on Noke. I respect that.. What makes me anger is this.. I put $2190 or something like that on Noke, and won $1685 I think. This doesn't count the prediction money. Now all the money I could earn from that event put together put me above $4000, but I don't know the exact number at the moment. Now what's stupid is, someone goes in there, and bets $50 on all the underdogs, and loses the money on all except for one. In most situations this is a bad thing, because the odds usually aren't that high on underdogs who actually win.

Usually if your +700, your going to lose. Well, because this person happened to get the Noons correct, he gets a huge amount of money back. $50 now becomes $4000+, and that's not counting prediction money.. Now this person who just happened to get lucky in finding one underdog who did win, is above me. I picked a fighter who was in the hot bout, and put all my money, reputation, and earnings rank on Noke. I should be relaxing in the top five right now. Instead.. because of this "average joe better" put $50 on Noons, I took a loss in the money category, because I didn't make the most money possible. I loss in the earnings rank, because I was 17th, and now i'm 31st. YOU SHOULDN'T GO DOWN IF YOU BETTED CORRECTLY! If I didn't have my reputation intact, i'd be hitting up all the mods, with repeated rant PMs.

Instead.. All I ask is that for the people who wager on the hot bouts, and bet on the winning guy, they should get double the money. If you get double the points for a hot bout, then you should get double the money.. It's not right, and now i'm sitting behind people who most likely won't care enough to wager on the next event.. If you look at the guy who's in my old spot right now (17th), he didn't even wager on the IFL Finals. I totally feel ripped off, because some people who didn't have the confidence to pick Noons, won money on him. I picked and bet on Noke, and i'm on the losing end of these... i'm going to stop before I start player bashing..
DJRokyManson
11/11/07 2:16:54PM
Hey Scott,

I completely understand your point. As much as I'd like it to happen as well, I don't see the mods doubling the win money on the hot bout.

Keep in mind, you obviously know what you are doing here on MMAPlayground. You are betting smart and your 83% winning percentage shows your extensive MMA knowledge.

We are only up to the second event of the season. The guy that surpassed you in the earning rankings is going to blindly put everything on the biggest underdog on the next card and lose everything. I have a feeling you are going rise back up in the rankings within the next couple events.

I must say, great call on picking Noke. He looked damn impressive. If I had known he was with Greg Jackson, I wouldn't have picked Kleinbeck.

WAR Crocodile Hunter Security Detail!!!

Adios,

Roky
tuvok500
11/11/07 3:28:26PM
I think that the secondary league is the perfect place to try something like that !!

you don't hurt your team if you lose and even if you win an event, you will lose everything if you try it all season long !!!

also, they don't give prize to the winner of each event so it is less painfull to see a super lucky guy winning the event !!

it is completely different in the main league when you are in a team and you can hurt your team badly by trying some stuff like that !!

TCE
11/11/07 3:40:16PM
I am kind of getting the hang of this and I see your point as well.

I have picked Karo in the up coming UFC event to win but have betted my wagers on Ryo to make the upset and win me some fake money to get up the ranks. Is that a good thing what I am doing?

I am pretty new to this so go easy lol.
DJRokyManson
11/11/07 3:40:55PM

Posted by tuvok500

I think that the secondary league is the perfect place to try something like that !!

you don't hurt your team if you lose and even if you win an event, you will lose everything if you try it all season long !!!



Very good point Tuvok! Since nobody has joined my team, and I'm flying here solo, I didn't think of that angle.

The level of MMA knowledge amongst the regular secondary league players is much higher than those that are just betting and picking the UFC fights. I highly doubt any of the current secondary league leaders will be anywhere near the top by the 5th event of the season.
DJRokyManson
11/11/07 3:51:34PM

Posted by TCE

I have picked Karo in the up coming UFC event to win but have betted my wagers on Ryo to make the upset and win me some fake money to get up the ranks. Is that a good thing what I am doing?



Tuvok just made a good point above about hurting your fight camp with picking and betting opposite fighters in the same fight. I see you are on Xtreme Couture and their ranking right now is #28. You might want to seriously consider his opinion.

If you are looking to win some big bucks, seriously consider putting a big bet on Michael Bisping at +300. I that is a much smarter underdog bet than Ryo Chonan.
TCE
11/11/07 4:40:28PM
Thanks for the advice man, I appreciated it. I've given you probs as well
Scott_Revels
11/11/07 6:42:42PM

Posted by DJRokyManson
I completely understand your point. As much as I'd like it to happen as well, I don't see the mods doubling the win money on the hot bout.

Keep in mind, you obviously know what you are doing here on MMAPlayground. You are betting smart and your 83% winning percentage shows your extensive MMA knowledge.

We are only up to the second event of the season. The guy that surpassed you in the earning rankings is going to blindly put everything on the biggest underdog on the next card and lose everything. I have a feeling you are going rise back up in the rankings within the next couple events.

I must say, great call on picking Noke. He looked damn impressive. If I had known he was with Greg Jackson, I wouldn't have picked Kleinbeck.



I sent the link to this thread to two mods before I went to sleep, and though they haven't replied back, i'd really like to know what they think, even if they don't change anything. Things like what happened are depressing, because I had all kinds of stress on me in picking Noke, because it was the hot bout. The people who went and spread across the underdogs thought about it for five minutes at the most.

I know there are going to be some of the people who jumped to the top of the list with a Noons bet, that are going to either pick wrong, or once again spread across the underdogs. I am currently at the belief that out of the EliteXC event and the Strikeforce, there is a less of a chance of an underdog upset on the Strikeforce event than the other.. What i'm worried about though is that the Noons situation will come up again at some point this season, and I feel that if i'm not risking my money, to gain lots of money, then i'm going to get behind. The more someone makes money, and the more successful someone is, the farther the earnings will spread, and it's better to be near the top early on, because with a comfortable amount of money, you could easily pad your money by picking moderately favored fighters. Now's not that time though..

As for picking Noke.. I didn't know anything about him being part of team Jackson while in America until they said it last night. I was like, "wow, that's quite something for your first fight on American TV." My basis was on how Noke did in his 13 wins, compared to what Kleinbeck did in his 8. My biggest proponent for picking Noke was his draw with Hector Lombard. That's not an easy accomplishment for any "small time" fighter, so that meant he was ready for EliteXC.. Just drawing Hector Lombard though wasn't the exact reason I picked him. If you look up a fight description for the Noke/Lombard fight, you'll see that Noke was basically in the situation he was in the first round with Kleinbeck.

He was trying to find his range, and learn what he needed to do to defeat his opponent. If that means take a beating for one round, then that's necessary. Kyle most likely knew that Hector is well known for not having as great a conditioning as some more experienced fighters out there.. For this reason, as long as he paced himself and forced Hector to work more, he would eventually tire Lombard out. Add in the surprise subs that were on display against Kleinbeck to catch Lombard off guard, and force him to work to escape them. Eventually around the final minute of the second round, Lombard was in survival mode. Kyle basically dominated Lombard from this point on. I don't know the exact reason why it was a draw, but in the end, all I needed to know in finalizing my bet with Noke was that he gets better as the fight progresses.

Upon that thinking, I watched the fight to see if it were true, and you can see Noke gradually get better against Kleinbeck. I didn't have the volume on, so I was asking my buddy Sticksta13 if Noke had one, because they were standing up. Then Noke raised his arms in the air, and I just started going nuts and congratulating myself. It was short lived though, because Noons won.


Posted by tuvok500

I think that the secondary league is the perfect place to try something like that !!



Agreed. Test it out, and see how it works in the SL, and make a decision on whether or not to incorporate it into the PL, keep it in just the SL, or get rid of it all together. They are always asking for ways that they can improve this place, and this is the best thing I can see happening at the moment.


Posted by DJRokyManson
The level of MMA knowledge amongst the regular secondary league players is much higher than those that are just betting and picking the UFC fights. I highly doubt any of the current secondary league leaders will be anywhere near the top by the 5th event of the season.



Yeah, it'll be hard for people who risk their money on underdogs, or spread across the board to survive against guys like myself, Stickan, wolfman, and others who know how to bet smart. Don't mess with the Teacher/Student team of Stickan, and Scott_Revels! (yeah, i'm the student.)
hippysmacker
11/11/07 9:52:02PM
First as Mods we only enforce rules, not make them. Some things we suggest get done, like the boss asked me who should get top poster tags for people over 500 post. That doesn't really affect him or the game much once they are bestowed. Personally, if you look at my account you will notice I bet all but $25 on Noke. So I was with ya on that strategy.

Second I'm not sure if you guys understand the betting odds. Noons was a plus 710. That means for every $100 you bet on him you win $710. So a little over 7 to 1 favorite. $50 wont win you $4000, it would have won you $ 305. If someone risk all their money on Noons and won, they scored big. However, it's far more likely someone who does that will lose it all , and basically be out of the running for the season. I tried betting a bunch of dogs a few times and it didn't work out.

Examples

• WEC 30 •
Crunkilton vs McCullough $100 Rich Crunkilton +330 -$100
Baker vs Forbes $500 Jesse Forbes -195 -$500
Alessio vs Brito $300 Marcelo Brito +620 -$300
McAfee vs Hicks $50 Scott McAfee +620 -$50
Benoit vs Avena $500 Joe Benoit -125 -$500
[prediction bonuses] - [view picks] - $205

and I bet half my $ on Gamburyan( and it looked good in the 1rst) and the rest on dogs in the TUF 5 finale

• Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale •
Pulver vs Penn $50 Jens Pulver +330 -$50
Huerta vs Evans $25 Doug Evans +800 -$25
Leites vs Sword $25 Floyd Sword +620 -$25
Gamburyan vs Diaz $500 Manvel Gamburyan +125 -$500
Melendez vs Lauzon $150 Brandon Melendez +680 -$150
Miller vs Wang $25 Andy Wang +440 -$25
Wiman vs Geraghty $25 Brian Geraghty +300 -$25
[prediction bonuses] - [view picks] - $150
[season start funds] - - - $1,000


Third- I like the idea of doubling hot bout money . I will suggest it to the boss, but please remember if he does decide to change it , it still probably wouldn't take effect till the next season. Lets also not forget whatever system we use can be exploited one way or the other. The old system allowed more knowledgeable MMA fans to bilk their lesser informed counterparts in wagers they thought were fair. In some cases, the year of the upset, actually made it so. Someone who made the time to send out numerous wager proposals had a better chance of getting enough people to accept their odds. If I sent out a hundred $50 wager proposals of even money on Anderson Silva/Chris Leben( if this site was up and running then) I bet about half would have been accepted. If you sent out only ten and half were accepted your winnings would have been less because you didn't spend countless hours accepting, looking through declined wagers, and finding new people to send a proposal too. Then they were the wager frauds, with their dummy accounts, and buddies signing up just to make dumb bets with them. Taking big risk has big rewards, and they don't work out most of the time. Under the current system that's a way of getting way ahead, or being impossibly behind. I think doubling the hot bout money is also a good idea, but if they did, you will have a lot of people betting all their money on that fight. Hot bouts generally have that distinction because the people picking make it close . Thats how the lines are set here. They are based on the pick overviews in this site. So however we do it, I think some people will always get ahead. Still, I agree picking a harder fight ( like the hot bout) right should have a little more reward than you average pick. Sorry if I was long winded
Scott_Revels
11/11/07 10:07:15PM
That's okay.. As long as you work to make the hot bout different than the others.. Besides.. I'm trying to form a coalition against the people who jumped ahead easily.. I'm going it, "Revenge against the Noons." Basically, all the people who picked Noke are rising up, and working together to squash those who picked Noons. I'm the only member, currently, but that's beside the point..
DJRokyManson
11/11/07 10:13:34PM

Posted by Scott_Revels

Besides.. I'm trying to form a coalition against the people who jumped ahead easily.. I'm going it, "Revenge against the Noons." Basically, all the people who picked Noke are rising up, and working together to squash those who picked Noons. I'm the only member, currently, but that's beside the point..



Hey Scott,

Even though I picked Kleinbeck, can I join your coalition? What can I do to help squash them.

I'm convinced all of the Nooners will be broke after Strikeforce show when Cung Le K.O.'s Sammy Morgan.

Roky
Scott_Revels
11/11/07 10:20:22PM
Lol.. All i'm really doing is getting everyone together to share information they might have on one of the hot bouts, so that we can all gain money.
tuvok500
11/11/07 10:32:24PM

Posted by hippysmacker

First as Mods we only enforce rules, not make them. Some things we suggest get done, like the boss asked me who should get top poster tags for people over 500 post. That doesn't really affect him or the game much once they are bestowed. Personally, if you look at my account you will notice I bet all but $25 on Noke. So I was with ya on that strategy.

Second I'm not sure if you guys understand the betting odds. Noons was a plus 710. That means for every $100 you bet on him you win $710. So a little over 7 to 1 favorite. $50 wont win you $4000, it would have won you $ 305. If someone risk all their money on Noons and won, they scored big. However, it's far more likely someone who does that will lose it all , and basically be out of the running for the season. I tried betting a bunch of dogs a few times and it didn't work out.

Examples

• WEC 30 •
Crunkilton vs McCullough $100 Rich Crunkilton +330 -$100
Baker vs Forbes $500 Jesse Forbes -195 -$500
Alessio vs Brito $300 Marcelo Brito +620 -$300
McAfee vs Hicks $50 Scott McAfee +620 -$50
Benoit vs Avena $500 Joe Benoit -125 -$500
[prediction bonuses] - [view picks] - $205

and I bet half my $ on Gamburyan( and it looked good in the 1rst) and the rest on dogs in the TUF 5 finale

• Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale •
Pulver vs Penn $50 Jens Pulver +330 -$50
Huerta vs Evans $25 Doug Evans +800 -$25
Leites vs Sword $25 Floyd Sword +620 -$25
Gamburyan vs Diaz $500 Manvel Gamburyan +125 -$500
Melendez vs Lauzon $150 Brandon Melendez +680 -$150
Miller vs Wang $25 Andy Wang +440 -$25
Wiman vs Geraghty $25 Brian Geraghty +300 -$25
[prediction bonuses] - [view picks] - $150
[season start funds] - - - $1,000


Third- I like the idea of doubling hot bout money . I will suggest it to the boss, but please remember if he does decide to change it , it still probably wouldn't take effect till the next season. Lets also not forget whatever system we use can be exploited one way or the other. The old system allowed more knowledgeable MMA fans to bilk their lesser informed counterparts in wagers they thought were fair. In some cases, the year of the upset, actually made it so. Someone who made the time to send out numerous wager proposals had a better chance of getting enough people to accept their odds. If I sent out a hundred $50 wager proposals of even money on Anderson Silva/Chris Leben( if this site was up and running then) I bet about half would have been accepted. If you sent out only ten and half were accepted your winnings would have been less because you didn't spend countless hours accepting, looking through declined wagers, and finding new people to send a proposal too. Then they were the wager frauds, with their dummy accounts, and buddies signing up just to make dumb bets with them. Taking big risk has big rewards, and they don't work out most of the time. Under the current system that's a way of getting way ahead, or being impossibly behind. I think doubling the hot bout money is also a good idea, but if they did, you will have a lot of people betting all their money on that fight. Hot bouts generally have that distinction because the people picking make it close . Thats how the lines are set here. They are based on the pick overviews in this site. So however we do it, I think some people will always get ahead. Still, I agree picking a harder fight ( like the hot bout) right should have a little more reward than you average pick. Sorry if I was long winded



i don't see how doubling the hot bout money would be a good thing !!

if you look at it base on % chance of winning only, you will have more chance to win on a fighter who is fighting against a guy at the same level of him compare to a guy who is fighting a guy who is suppose to be much better !!

so , you will have more peoples who will try a big shot on the hot bout and half of them will lose everthing.

the half who win there bet would have win less money than betting on a +700 fighter but even with that in mind, you will have alot more peoples broken who are no longer in the race in the waguering board and you will have more peoples who will hurt there team because of the among of money that the half loser will lose will be bigger than the among of money of the half winner will win !

compare to some guys who risk everything on a +700 guys who knows that there chance of winning is very low. so, in the actual situation, you will have less peoples who will try a big shot because of the probability of losing everything is higher. so the among of money of the majority who are betting safely are bigger than the among of money of the big gambler are losing . so conclusion, it is better to have less peoples with very big money and the majority with resonable money compare to a system where half of the peoples are broken and the other half are still in the race untill they find themself in the losing side of the hot bout.

everybody knows that if you tell to a guy that is chance of winning is 50/50, and he can double his gain on the hot bout he will consider it a good chance.
but the thing that he will not understand is if he put 1000$ on a +100 fighter and he win 2000$ for 1 fight but his friend will lose 1000$ on the same fight, so after that , the same guy who won his bet will say " it is easy " so he will try it again and with a bigger bet, but woops, he lose is money, so he is broken and his friend too, and you now why, because when you lose eveything , you are no longer able to win big, so first event, half are eliminate, second event half of the other half are eliminate, third event, half of the second half of the first half are losing and the are broken too , and surprise , almost everybody is broken and instead of having a great competition of guys with good strategy against a few who are risking everything , you will have a competition of guys who will lose less than the other and it will be ridiculous !! the winner will be the guy who lost less moneys instead of the guy who win more moneys !!


hard to explain in english because it is a little bit complicated.


disorderlyvision
11/15/07 12:25:57PM
You guys want some cheese with that whine???

talk about odds, your odds of winning any real money is slim last i checked there were 3000+ members of this site.

if you attended a fight in vegas you could root for one guy and bet on the other. no rules against it. if somone is +700 i will alway drop a little money on them. always! the odds are too good, and anything can happen in a fight. i usually dont put much because i know the chance of winning is slim. i make my larger bets on fights with closer odds. but i am taking that +700 every time.

i also realize my odds of winning 1st place are 3000+:1, so i dont come to this site thinking i am going to get real cash. i come here to have fun, place bets, pick fights, and read others opinions on fights and fighters. thats also why i am not a cherry picker. im not going to win anyway so i pick all the fights just to see how i do.

most of the people placing big bets on high odds are probably doing the same thing, just having fun.

i agree with double money on hot bouts. you get rewarded double points for making the right pick. you should get double money for placing the right bet.

quit complaining and enjoy this site, its the best MMA site on the net, imo

DoTheMMAth
11/15/07 1:10:37PM

Posted by disorderlyvision

talk about odds, your odds of winning any real money is slim last i checked there were 3000+ members of this site.



There's been 8,000 people who have placed a bet in our primary wagers game this season... only 1 of them will wind up in first, it's just the way it is.

While we're on numbers, up to this point in the season, there's been 81,000 bets made in the primary league. Out of this number only 37,000 were winning bets.


Posted by disorderlyvision

if you attended a fight in vegas you could root for one guy and bet on the other. no rules against it. if somone is +700 i will alway drop a little money on them. always! the odds are too good, and anything can happen in a fight. i usually dont put much because i know the chance of winning is slim. i make my larger bets on fights with closer odds. but i am taking that +700 every time.



Summed up quite well good sir


Posted by disorderlyvision

its the best MMA site on the net, imo






There's a reason the odds are high on the underdog, no one is expecting them to win It's risky business obviously. There's such a slim chance of picking the paying underdog over and over again and repeatedly nailing it. I think of Anveo who had a commanding lead at one point in this season after wagering it all on Cheick Kongo over CroCop, then followed it up by wagering it all again on Jardine over Liddell. I thought "man, this guy can just cruise and win it all now!". One event later he'd lost most of his money . The money leaderboard changes sooo much each event, and the secondary season has a ways to go before concluding. IMO slow and steady wins the race Don't give up hope!

At this point we probably won't be doubling wager earnings on hot bouts. The wagering and picks are pretty much separate aspects of the game. The fact that you get some money for making correct picks is mostly done as a solution to the situation we all wind up in at times where we've banked it all and lost, and also to have a way to make an event have a clear cut winner in terms of earnings (especially is this the case early in the season).