What does it take to make good picks?

MMAPlayground.com » Community » MMA Playground Game Talk » What does it take to make good picks?
Wolfenstein
10/16/08 2:13:43AM
You would think being knowledgable about MMA would be enough to consistently make good picks. Have you ever noticed there are some really good posters who are very knowledgable of fighters in MMA yet their stats suck? Weird.

So what does it take to make good picks?
CantAndleDaRiddum
10/16/08 2:28:15AM
imo,
not being biased
knowing when a fighter isnt what he used to be, or when he has taken himself to the next level
knowing your style matchups
knowing fighters tendencies, strengths & most importantly weaknesses

&
a lil luck

Kracker_Jap
10/16/08 2:35:13AM

Posted by CantAndleDaRiddum

imo,
not being biased
knowing when a fighter isnt what he used to be, or when he has taken himself to the next level
knowing your style matchups
knowing fighters tendencies, strengths & most importantly weaknesses

&
a lil luck




I agree with this method, but do not follow it when make main card picks on events I plan to watch.....

In the case of making picks on the fights that i plan to watch I pick who I want to win or the fighter i would most likely have a beer with...

I just have a problem on picking fighters that I don't care for to win especially if I have to watch it, its too much of a conflict of interest for me

With that being said I hope bisping gets KTFO
CantAndleDaRiddum
10/16/08 2:41:17AM

Posted by Kracker_Jap


Posted by CantAndleDaRiddum

imo,
not being biased
knowing when a fighter isnt what he used to be, or when he has taken himself to the next level
knowing your style matchups
knowing fighters tendencies, strengths & most importantly weaknesses

&
a lil luck




I agree with this method, but do not follow it when make main card picks on events I plan to watch.....

In the case of making picks on the fights that i plan to watch I pick who I want to win or the fighter i would most likely have a beer with...

I just have a problem on picking fighters that I don't care for to win especially if I have to watch it, its too much of a conflict of interest for me

With that being said I hope bisping gets KTFO




i make a pt never to keep my fight finder near me when watching fights.....it makes me care too much about my picks & not enough about the fight

i'll take a 0 in points for the main card if i get to see 5 sick fights

Wolfenstein
10/16/08 3:53:08AM
Yeah I find myself cheering for my picks if I have my companion around. I've gone over my picks so much I tend to have pretty good recall on them. Sometimes I do have to kind of just step back for a minute and remember that I want to see some awesome fights to. I just like to be able to predict them
Pookie
10/16/08 4:33:32AM
Good Knowledge on what each fighter brings into the fight offensively and defensively, then after matching the two up in your head break it down and usually picking the fight comes easy.

Rush
10/16/08 9:13:57AM
what do you consider good picks? How many points an event? What record?
DCRage
10/16/08 9:35:58AM
A bit of luck, a little research, and resisting the temptation to pick an underdog based on just a nice-looking record that's probably padded (I'm guilty of that).
emfleek
10/16/08 9:50:08AM
Mayonaisse, a plunger and an old issue of Cosmopolitan

CantAndleDaRiddum
10/16/08 11:08:08AM

Posted by Rush

what do you consider good picks? How many points an event? What record?


im kinda curious of what is considered GOOD as well
Twenty20Dollars
10/16/08 11:27:02AM
I would say don't do too much research and don't over think the picks
gsquat
10/16/08 1:55:40PM
Picking the MMAplayground favorite (found in stats and data: stats per event) will get you about a 70% win rate. For points its best to pick UD or R1 of that fighter's most common method of victory.
npayant
10/16/08 3:45:14PM
To be competitive on this site:

NEVER give away your secrets of making "good" picks!!!

Maybe if someone you respect PMs you... but not on the forums!

....geez guys!
jiujitsufreak74
10/16/08 3:50:22PM
the opposite of who B_goetz picks
emfleek
10/16/08 3:54:01PM
When in doubt, use the "Thiago Rule".
Wolfenstein
10/16/08 5:34:19PM

Posted by Rush

what do you consider good picks? How many points an event? What record?



I would say a good win loss record would be at least above 63%. It's kind of difficult to gauge a good point score because every event is different. I'll just throw a umber out there that sounds about right to me. Finishing in the 30th percentile consistently in point per event. I would consider that good pickng.

No disrespect to anone who is picking under 63%, or isn't finising in X percentile. I'm just saying this for the sake of discussion. If anyone has a better idea how to guage good picks that would be awesome.

Rush
10/16/08 8:25:23PM
If you had only picked the most popular fighter based on the total MMAplayground players' picks, you would have a 70% win rate so far this season.

My wife makes picks based on a mindless system and has a better record than I do. Does that mean I know nothing? Nope, because under her system she will never get underdog picks, whereas I get a lot of them. In fact, there are a lot of fights I picked correct that most people didn't.

The other thing too is this. Many many times, I pick a fight to go to decision, but I picked the wrong winner. To me that is a much closer pick than picking a guy to win by sub in round 2 but he ends up losing by KO in rd 1. It's frustrating when I pick the wrong decision winner, especially if it is a close fight.

It has become apparent (to me) that to have a consistent set of good picks, you have to do research on the undercard fighters. I personally just don't have the time to do this. Heck, I barely squeeze in the time to do the picks in the first place. I still haven't made my picks for Sat. yet and haven't really even thought about them.

There is also the X-factor where you are convinced a fighter will have a particular game plan and to the shock of everyone, they don't follow through with it. But that is the nature of the beast.


All in all, I say there is a certain range of records where you cannot really judge a person's MMA knowledge. There are different types of MMA knowledge too. There is the practical knowledge regarding the game plans, and the actual details that go into a fight. Then there is the knowledge of knowing fighters' names, history, previous fight results, etc. IMO, the second is far more beneficial than the first when it comes to playing this game, but I would consider someone more knowledgeable in the fist aspect, more knowledgeable in MMA overall. But that is just me.
Wolfenstein
10/16/08 9:13:50PM
Yes...your wife is a better picker than you...jk. I know what you mean. My gf does a simiar thing in our football pool. She picks where she would rather live. I think she actually won a couple weeks ago.

Definetely agree with you on the value of the undercard. I think that makes or breaks people. I watch a lot of obscure MMA events so most of the time I am vaguly familiar with undercard fighters, otherwise I'll youtube some fights if I have the time.

I don't think records are 100% indicative of someones knowledge, unless hey are picking like below 40% or something, but I do think to be really good at making picks you need to have a strong knowledge of MMA.
jiujitsufreak74
10/16/08 9:38:31PM
something funny about my pick record is that i do a lot better on the under card and secondary league picks than i do in the UFC main card. i think it is easier for me to use my head instead of my heart for non- UFC main card fights because that is the only explanation i can think of

RampageOwnedYou
10/16/08 9:47:18PM
I think overthinking or looking to deep into a fight can hurt you. I usually try to refresh myself with their last two fights and pick from there. Obviously "style vs style" is key, but you have to look at the big picture. Is a fighter hot or not, and how would a wrestler vs a black belt bjj guy fair?

And when I say overthinking, i mean going over a fight for days trying to make a pick.

The biggest mistake I HAVE LEARNED is, changing my pick the last day, or going by something ive read the day before the fight. To me this is a big no no.

And to what you guys are saying. I agree 100% with this site, it makes me cheer for someone and get to wrapped up in a fight. Rather then me just watching a fight for the love of the sport. I get either real pissed and it ruins my night, or i am very happy. This site has made me more hardcore than i was before.
Rush
10/19/08 4:37:47PM
I want to add something to the list.

Whether or not you gamble.

For example, The Carwin fight last night. Whenever two guys step in the ring and both have a record of knocking guys out in the first round and/or being knocked out in the first, I usually go with the underdog just to gamble for the extra points because I figure someone is getting KOed in the first.

For example had I gone for the easy pick (Carwin) I would have actually done ok in points last night, but I gambled for the extra two.

Some times it works and other times it doesn't. I know I'll never be consistent enough to win a season, but I try and gamble to win an event.
Kpro
10/19/08 8:21:53PM
Whoever has the most tattoo's wins.

Everyone knows that.
Pookie
10/20/08 4:14:12AM

Posted by Rush

There are different types of MMA knowledge too. There is the practical knowledge regarding the game plans, and the actual details that go into a fight. Then there is the knowledge of knowing fighters' names, history, previous fight results, etc. IMO, the second is far more beneficial than the first when it comes to playing this game, but I would consider someone more knowledgeable in the fist aspect, more knowledgeable in MMA overall. But that is just me.



I personally favor #1 to #2, theres only so much paper can tell you IMO.
bobbydoomocculta
11/23/08 11:39:25PM

Posted by Kpro

Whoever has the most tattoo's wins.

Everyone knows that.




Haha... If I don't know the fighters, I'll pick the one with fewer tattoos... A bad man doesn't need to tell people he's a bad man...

The exception is when they're heavyweights, who are gonna kill or be killed in the first... The colourful men generally take those...

You're record's better than mine though... So I could probably leaarn a thing or two from your technique...
Kracker_Jap
11/24/08 12:38:19AM

Posted by bobbydoomocculta


Posted by Kpro

Whoever has the most tattoo's wins.

Everyone knows that.




Haha... If I don't know the fighters, I'll pick the one with fewer tattoos... A bad man doesn't need to tell people he's a bad man...

The exception is when they're heavyweights, who are gonna kill or be killed in the first... The colourful men generally take those...

You're record's better than mine though... So I could probably leaarn a thing or two from your technique...



What ?????

He is back???

Whats up dooBobbyCulta???
bobbydoomocculta
11/24/08 10:29:09PM

Posted by Kracker_Jap


Posted by bobbydoomocculta


Posted by Kpro

Whoever has the most tattoo's wins.

Everyone knows that.




Haha... If I don't know the fighters, I'll pick the one with fewer tattoos... A bad man doesn't need to tell people he's a bad man...

The exception is when they're heavyweights, who are gonna kill or be killed in the first... The colourful men generally take those...

You're record's better than mine though... So I could probably leaarn a thing or two from your technique...



What ?????

He is back???

Whats up dooBobbyCulta???



Haha....

The sky, Bum Kracker...

The Sky...
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