UFC on FOX 5 odds: Champ Henderson opens as heavy favorite over Diaz

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Budgellism
8/16/12 3:11:25PM
The oddsmakers are heavily favoring UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson in his next title defense.

As MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) first reported Wednesday, Henderson (17-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC) meets top contender Nate Diaz (16-7 MMA, 11-5 UFC) in the headliner of December's UFC on FOX 5 event.

Noted and influential MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa has set an opening "Odessa line" with Henderson at -340 and Diaz at +260, which makes the champ an approximate 3-to-1 favorite.

Henderson, who defended his belt for the first time with a narrow split-decision victory over ex-champ Frankie Edgar this past weekend at UFC 150, returns Dec. 8 for his network-televised main event with Diaz. The challenger earned his title shot with three consecutive victories, including a decision win over Donald Cerrone and then a submission victory over Jim Miller earlier this year in the UFC on FOX 3 headliner.

Oddessa, though, points to the Cerrone fight as a possible reason people are overvaluing Diaz.

"If Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone didn't have a gentleman's agreement to stand and bang, Diaz wouldn't be fighting Henderson at UFC on FOX 5," Oddessa, who can be found on Twitter at @mmaodds, told MMAjunkie.com. "I think Cerrone hurt him in the first round and decided not to pursue finishing him on the ground. That was his downfall."

Diaz, though, has the conditioning for deeper rounds, and his constant barrage of punches should present a unique challenge to Henderson.

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Budgellism
8/16/12 3:12:27PM
I know the lines will even out a bit but this is just crazy. Bendo at -340? Seriously? I'd be betting a hefty amount on Diaz with his odds.
airkerma
8/16/12 3:24:36PM
I have to agree budge, he definitely didn't have the showing this weekend to prompt such a large line. It may even out a week or so before hand, but I doubt he drops below -250.
george112
8/16/12 3:49:32PM
Like I said stylistically Bendo isn't a good match for Diaz.

Diaz is going to have problems.

I'll be betting on Bendo
Goatenstein
8/16/12 4:01:05PM
This is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen. Diaz wins easily.
prophecy033
8/16/12 4:37:41PM

Posted by Goatenstein

This is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen. Diaz wins easily.

I feel that saying either one wins "easily" means your selling the other guy short. Imo, whoever wins will have to work for it
infestructure
8/16/12 5:01:16PM
Agree Prophecy, this is an interesting matchup stylistically, as Bendo is gonna have to figure out a way to deal with 10,000 slaps a minute

Twenty20Dollars
8/16/12 6:24:42PM
kopower
8/16/12 6:29:14PM
Those odds will come back down closer to fight time. My guess is that Bendo will be a slight favorite. Maybe around -150, -200 tops.

I think Ben plays it smart, and uses his wrestling. Diaz definitely wins the stand up battle, and Ben has been dropped a few times, albeit recovered well each time. Diaz can threaten with subs from the bottom, but we all know teh kingsmasher has a better chance at earning a top poster badge, then Bendo getting submitted.
hymiekooken
8/16/12 7:03:25PM

Posted by infestructure

Agree Prophecy, this is an interesting matchup stylistically, as Bendo is gonna have to figure out a way to deal with 10,000 slaps a minute




And those do add up, especially if Diaz wants to / is able to keep it standing.
Pookie
8/16/12 7:06:38PM
Henderson is already under -200.

Those odds were a steal, and that Odessa guy's logic was terrible at best.
tcunningham
8/16/12 7:11:05PM
im gonna go with bendo. i dont see diaz submitting him, and i see bendo out working him everywhere else. diaz has great cardio but that doesnt mean he cant be out worked.
lohmann
8/16/12 7:16:11PM

Posted by Pookie

Henderson is already under -200.

Those odds were a steal, and that Odessa guy's logic was terrible at best.



Agreed.

If there was any logic to apply to such suspiciously wrong odds, the fights that Nate Diaz has lost while a UFC fighter would be the best ones to point to.
hashyandy4
8/16/12 11:20:08PM

Posted by Budgellism

I know the lines will even out a bit but this is just crazy. Bendo at -340? Seriously? I'd be betting a hefty amount on Diaz with his odds.



Me 2 Budge, those odds are kinda outrageous
FlashyG
8/16/12 11:27:48PM
I think Bendo will win the fight, but with those odds you'd be crazy not to put at least a little on Diaz.
Sir_Karl
8/16/12 11:34:30PM
This is typical crap. Henderson getting more respect than he deserves and a Diaz brother getting no respect. I hope to see Henderson tappin' from a triangle.
Adrenaline
8/17/12 6:08:52AM

Posted by Sir_Karl

This is typical crap. Henderson getting more respect than he deserves and a Diaz brother getting no respect. I hope to see Henderson tappin' from a triangle.



All the respect in the world for Nate but Benson is a strong wrestler who is incredibly hard to submit. Nate has looked incredible in his last few outings but Bendo is the favorite for good reason.
aussiemma
8/17/12 6:15:38AM
still favouring diaz slightly, but after benson's last fight you know he is going to be much improved and come with a good strategy.

i'd have benson at -200 favourite right now
JLS1980
8/17/12 12:49:08PM
As of right now Benson is only -145, -139, -175, -165, and -170 according to 5 major bookmakers at this time.

My sources in order are 5Dimes, SportsBet, Sportsbook, SBG Global and BetOnline.

These lines will fluctuate as fight time approaches.
Aether
8/17/12 4:51:24PM
I think Henderson should be a favourite, but I would put money on Diaz at anything lower than +150 or so in a heartbeat.

Whoever bought up those lines got a pretty amazing deal.