If I was in each fighters corner, this would be my gameplan.
If I were Bj Penn, my number one priority would be to keep the pressure on GSP. Never stop coming forward, always be working. Even if you get tagged a few times, don't stop. The first time BJ Penn and GSP fought, BJ definitively won the first round. He came forward and didn't stay out of GSP's face. GSP had no answer. With GSP vs Matt Serra 1, Matt came right at him and beat him, hard. Also, I'de say Bj needs to stay in close, he has a height and reach disadvantage. Keep in close, using his crisp jabs to slowly break down GSP. And eventually break him. Jon Fitch stood aroudn against GSP, and look what happened to him. BJ must try to finish him in the first 3. I would also tell BJ to avoid the ground. I'll explain why ...
If I was in GSP's corner I'de be telling him this. Keep the distance. Use stiff jabs and good leg/body kicks to keep BJ, the tiger, at bay. If BJ were to get too close, take him down. use a strong take down to really send a message. I am confident that GSP will not get submitted, and for BJ to avoid the ground for these reasons. In their first fight, GSP spent ten minutes with BJ on the ground, and didn't get submitted. And since that point, GSP's ground has improved in leaps and bounds. His wrestling has gained mass improvements. He is now also a BJJ blackbelt. But I am in no way saying that GSP could out-grapple BJ. I believe that it may be a stalemate if they start trying subs. GSP will likely use his strength to definitively overcome BJ in the later round.
BJ needs to come fast and strong. And he doesn't stop the pressure. Using crisp boxing. He needs to use tricky FAST submissions on the ground.
GSP needs to keep his distance, and use his wrestling to control him on the ground. And try to defeat him in the alter rounds, using greater strength and cardio.
My pick to win
Georges St. Pierre.
In the beginning, I chose GSP just out of bias. But as I began to really investigate this fight, it began to become more clear that GSP is the better overall fighter. He has improved so much in the past years. I don't believe BJ has the skills to crack GSP.
Nice breakdown. I agree with a lot of what you posted.
But I really don't think GSP is the overall better fighter.
BJ has better ju jitsu, he also has better and more effective MMA boxing/striking. BJ has the better chin and can deal with the mental part of the game better I think.
GSP has the better wrestling and cardio, and he is also probably the stronger of the 2.
So personally the only way I see GSP winning is my taking BJ down and keeping him there long enough to win a decision. Or maybe until BJ tires out and gets finished late in the fight.
My pick is BJ, by striking. Sometime before the 4th.
I really think that GSP wants to throw BJ around in this fight. BJ may be one of the best fighters in the world, but he's borderline top 5 at best at WW. He has looked fat in his last few fights at WW, and I think that GSP will be able to come out in this fight and throw him around. And when he gets him on the ground, he'll probably just pick him back up and throw him down again.
Plus let's not forget that GSP is a karate black belt, so I don't know how much of a disadvantage that he is at when standing.
my best bet is bj gassing out
he isn't fighting sherk standing up lets see how much takedowns, sub defense will where and tear on him
i really don't think bj has the cardio to keep up when he gasses out he will be done