Someone please explain why Gleison Tibau is a +600 underdog?!

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aegion
1/27/08 9:02:54AM
Can someone explain this to me? I'm not an expert by any means but this seems illogical. Even if you think Tyson Griffin will beat him why this much?

Personally I think Gleison should be the favorite. Here's why: Tyson Griffin built his fame by beating Thiago Tavares, Tyson's split decision win over Clay Guida is bullshit and we all know Guida won. So it was beating Thiago Tavares which really put Griffin on the map since it was an exciting fight and even got fight of the night. Now, Thiago Tavares got famous because he beat Jason Black on a fight night, Jason Black was beaten by Matt Grice who was beaten by Terry Etim who was beaten by Gleison Tibau.

Beating a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy is more impressive than beating a guy who beat a guy. Tibau is a HUGE lightweight and I think he'll throw Griffin to the mat like a ragdoll.



odogg22
1/27/08 10:03:25AM
If you take a look at who he has fought lately that explains itself. The only person who is a decent name was diaz which he lost by TKO in the second round. After that match he went 4-0 which is not bad but 2 where but decision and 1 submission and 1 KO. He did not go agaist nobody to though in those 4 matches. Now tyson the other hand has fought some top 10 fighters i would say in his weight class. He did very well agaist his last 4 oppoents. and went 3-1 and had some wars and pulled off the big victories agaist some very skilled fighters. That is why Glesion is such an underdog because he has not proven himself yet.
aegion
1/27/08 10:21:56AM
Ok, so Terry Etim wasn't a "decent name"?! He was on 10 fight undefeated winning streak before Tibau beat him, and it was a very dominant performance, the fight is on Megaupload check it out.

Yeah he lost to Nick Diaz, but that fight was at welterweight. In fact, every loss Tibua has was at welterweight. You do realize this is a lightweight fight right?

"tyson the other hand has fought some top 10 fighters i would say in his weight class"

What? Who has Tyson fought that's top ten besides Urijah Faber who is a 145 pounder? He lost to Clay Guida and Frankie Edgar, but wait...he beat Thiago Tavares! That makes him a -640 againt Tibau! Just for clarification is this the same Tavares that just got tooled by Michihiro Omigawa who was supposed to be a gimme fight for him? Or is there another Thiago Tavares, a fighter with the same name that's some kind of bad ass and would justify the hype Tyson Griffin is getting now?
fedorwins1
1/27/08 10:42:26AM
I think Tibau should win this fight, he's bigger and has a better ground game IMO.
Mayhem13
1/27/08 11:23:26AM
I dont htink Tyson is most known for beating Tavares, I would say he is most known for beating Urijah Faber, Then Guida, then Tavares....anyways your this guy beat this guy who beat this guy who knows this guys trainer and fought his instructor thing doesnt work.

MMATH is completely unreliable.... thats like saying the whole, Chuck loss to Rampage, who loss to Wanderlei, who loss to Henderson, Who loss to Rampage, who beat Chuck (again), who beat Wanderlei... it doesnt mean anything.,..different fighters match up different against each other..

I think Griffin is the favorite in this fight, and should win.
fedorwins1
1/27/08 11:31:04AM
Another thing to think about is the striking. Tibau doesn't have amazing striking, but he's no slouch either and he has a damn good flying knee; when Tyson tries to shoot in he might get caught with a BIG KNEE
aegion
1/27/08 11:38:18AM
"anyways your this guy beat this guy who beat this guy who knows this guys trainer and fought his instructor thing doesnt work."

It's not that convoluted. And it's not really MMath either. All I'm saying is we all agree there are levels of skill right? And taking Jason Black as a starting point, we have two guys who beat him which but them one level of skill above him, and so on, and you see that Tibau has actually beat someone higher in skill than Thiago Tavares when he beat Terry Etim.

Known for beating Guida? More like known for losing and getting a bad decision going in his favor.

I thin part of the reason people have made Tyson Griffin such a favorite could be they equate exciting fight with winning. That's MMath, not what I'm saying. Just like everyone started counting Werdum out because he had 1 boring decision. Also Tibau has been mostly in unaired prelims, and if people don't know a fighter they tend to bet against them.
npayant
1/27/08 11:42:59AM
You'll learn that this site always has whacked out odds...Tibau definitely shouldn't be a +600 (ex. Brock Lesnar is actually the favorite on real betting sites and Tim Sylvia is only about a +150)

I usually just go find the REAL odds that are out there. In a couple of days you'll be able to see the betting odds for this fight and I guarantee he won't be that big of an underdog...he will be an underdog...but not a +600

In saying all of this, Tyson should win this fight...he's proven that he can put on a very tough fight against good competition.
aegion
1/27/08 11:43:57AM
Another thing to think about is the striking. Tibau doesn't have amazing striking, but he's no slouch either and he has a damn good flying knee; when Tyson tries to shoot in he might get caught with a BIG KNEE

He loves the flying knee, it's like one of his signature moves.
grappler0000
1/27/08 12:11:44PM

Posted by aegion

"anyways your this guy beat this guy who beat this guy who knows this guys trainer and fought his instructor thing doesnt work."

It's not that convoluted. And it's not really MMath either. All I'm saying is we all agree there are levels of skill right? And taking Jason Black as a starting point, we have two guys who beat him which but them one level of skill above him, and so on, and you see that Tibau has actually beat someone higher in skill than Thiago Tavares when he beat Terry Etim.

Known for beating Guida? More like known for losing and getting a bad decision going in his favor.

I thin part of the reason people have made Tyson Griffin such a favorite could be they equate exciting fight with winning. That's MMath, not what I'm saying. Just like everyone started counting Werdum out because he had 1 boring decision. Also Tibau has been mostly in unaired prelims, and if people don't know a fighter they tend to bet against them.



I'm not sure the betting odds are on the money, but Griffin should definitely be the favorite. He is the only person ever to defeat Faber. Although Faber is a FW, you can't discredit a win that big. He also has wins over Guida and Tavares...you can say what you want about the Guida decision, but the fact that he had close fights with both of those guys is very credible.

Tibau is a pretty decent fighter, but the fact remains that he doesn't have any notable victories. To compare Terry Etim to Thiago Tavares is ludicrous. Tarares has had one disappointing fight, but has been phenominal in all the rest. While Etim is no scrub, he has not proven anything in the big leagues yet.

And for the record, MMA math has nothing to do with how exciting a fight is.
aegion
1/27/08 12:31:03PM
Although Faber is a FW, you can't discredit a win that big.

I think it does discredit it. It's just like Lyoto Machida beating BJ Penn. If it's a fight where they're clearly two different weight classes then it doesn't mean as much if the bigger fighter wins. And weight differences count more in the smaller weight classes also.

To compare Terry Etim to Thiago Tavares is ludicrous.

Is it really? I'll give you that maybe Etim is not better than Tavares but merely equal. No way is Etim below Tavares. Because who has Tavares beat? Jason Black is his biggest win. Who beat Jason Black? Matt Grice. And Terry Etim beat Matt Grice.
Mayhem13
1/27/08 12:42:29PM
alright Gleison, we understand that you beat Etim, who beat Grice, who Beat Black, got beat by Tavares, who got beat by Griffin...we do, and we appreciate the fact that you came here to tell us that, and let us know how confident you are. thank you, but I am sticking with my pick.
grappler0000
1/27/08 12:56:05PM

Posted by aegion

Is it really? I'll give you that maybe Etim is not better than Tavares but merely equal. No way is Etim below Tavares. Because who has Tavares beat? Jason Black is his biggest win. Who beat Jason Black? Matt Grice. And Terry Etim beat Matt Grice.



Again, MMA math proves nothing...and you are using a common defeated opponent, so it really proves nothing.
bullettdodger
1/27/08 1:24:04PM
Tyson = Favorite
Tibau = dog food
Etim < Tavares (we've seen both of their ground games)
And finally none of this or the odd matter cause it just two warriors going at each other with everything they got, so it should be an exciting fight... thats my MMAth
aegion
1/27/08 1:39:46PM
If you look at all of Tyson Griffin's fights in the ufc minus the David Lee fight there were moments where he was in trouble in all of those fights, and where smaller people like Clay Guida and Frankie Edgar couldn't take full advantage of those situations someone like Gleison Tibau who is one of the biggest lightweights will be able to. Griffin isn't going to be able to shake him off as easily as he did those other guys.

I also want to add that Tibau almost tapped Nick Diaz with a Kimura. Diaz didn't just walk through him.
Mayhem13
1/27/08 1:51:12PM
Diaz was in about as much trouble as Fedor was when Hunt ad him almost in a Kimura/Americana ...


and I am not taking anything away from Gleison, I agree the odds are off, but I would still pu thim at +250 atleast..... he hasnt proven himself against enough big names to justify bieng the favorite against Grffin.

I dont think you are looking at it in an unbias way...your obviously a big Gleison fan, and thats cool...but you have to look at things from an unbias perspective when having these discussions.
grappler0000
1/27/08 1:53:03PM

Posted by aegion

If you look at all of Tyson Griffin's fights in the ufc minus the David Lee fight there were moments where he was in trouble in all of those fights, and where smaller people like Clay Guida and Frankie Edgar couldn't take full advantage of those situations someone like Gleison Tibau who is one of the biggest lightweights will be able to. Griffin isn't going to be able to shake him off as easily as he did those other guys.

I also want to add that Tibau almost tapped Nick Diaz with a Kimura. Diaz didn't just walk through him.



Nobody's saying that Tibau doesn't have a shot, but rather that Griffin is and should be the favorite to win.
Svartorm
1/27/08 9:47:16PM
We calculate our odds from the picks people make, rather than using a sports book, which is why our odds will sometimes be much different than the sportsbooks. Do you think Tibau wins this fight more than 1 out of 6 times? Then put some money on him.

As for your arguments aegion, there are more holes in them than I'd care to address. Suffice to say, MMath doesn't work and most of the fighters you're comparing cross weightclasses and have completely dissimilar styles.
emfleek
1/27/08 9:52:45PM
I'd keep my mouth shut (as to not let anyone else in on the "secret") and put a fat wager on the guy if I were that confident.
aegion
1/27/08 10:03:20PM
I'd keep my mouth shut (as to not let anyone else in on the "secret") and put a fat wager on the guy if I were that confident.

I am putting all my money on him. I don't care about keeping it secret since it isn't real money.

Tyson Griffin's only chance is to keep it standing in my opinion. If it hits the ground Tibau is too big and strong for him. And even if they were the same size, all things being equal Tibau is better at Brazilian Jiu Jitsu than Griffin is at wrestling.
rcg916
1/29/08 12:15:23PM

Posted by aegion

Tyson Griffin built his fame by beating Thiago Tavares....




Nah, Griffin got his name by beating Urijah Faber...


Posted by aegion

Beating a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy is more impressive than beating a guy who beat a guy.



Is this a riddle? Kind of like the Woodchuck chucking wood thing?
Pookie
1/29/08 6:42:37PM

Posted by aegion
Beating a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy is more impressive than beating a guy who beat a guy.



Hmmm... this is a tough one as it in all honestly doesnt make any sense but...

While trying to decipher this code i found that i disagree.

Beating a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy is LESS impressive than beating a guy who beat a guy.

If the starting point is of importance than the less amount of fighters you have to go through in your chain to get to the last fighter is much more impressive.

There's less of a chance for a bad stoppage, a shady decision, or a bad stylistic match-up for one of the fights in question.

Having a smaller amount of fighters in the scenario actually gives the scenario a chance to make sense, if the guy who beat a guy fights very similar to the guy that beat him, then you could say the guy who beat him could beat the guy that the original guy in question beat. As they come into the fight with the same skill set it makes some sense.

Saying a guy who beat a guy who beat a guy whobeat a guy is more impressive is ludicrous. theres 4 fights in that scenario, that means that the winner of all 4 matches had to have similar/identical styles. If that chain is broken anywhere than you have to throw out the equation, as it does become MMAMath and it is longer sensical.

In conclusion the less amount of degrees of seperation equates to more if everybody but the original loser fights identically.

But of course that is never the case (ever), so in essence niether equations mean anything. But still... you know what i mean.

telnights
1/29/08 8:16:28PM
Way to much MMAth going on here. It never has worked and I don't expect it to start working.
jiujitsufreak74
1/29/08 9:09:17PM
he is a +600 underdog because 93% of the people on this site picked tyson griffin...that is your answer.

the reason so many people picked against him? because tyson is in the limelight more and even though it will be a close fight imo, a lot of people just picked griffin to win the close fight; enough to make it as lopsided as 93:7.
CornishMMA
2/1/08 10:37:13AM
Yeah well i think the point he is really making is that Tibau SHOULDNT be a +600 underdog! And thats true, i dont think using the picks is a fair way of calculating odds tbh, certainly not realistic! IMO the odds should always be closer so people dont make silly money on a few dogs, tho thats kinda already happened with ufc 80 and the guys with tens of thousands of $$$ should be able to hold out for the season
nellyhiphophead
2/1/08 12:07:52PM
yeah i think it's a loser fight then that line also.
npayant
2/1/08 12:31:02PM

Posted by CornishMMA

Yeah well i think the point he is really making is that Tibau SHOULDNT be a +600 underdog! And thats true, i dont think using the picks is a fair way of calculating odds tbh, certainly not realistic! IMO the odds should always be closer so people dont make silly money on a few dogs, tho thats kinda already happened with ufc 80 and the guys with tens of thousands of $$$ should be able to hold out for the season



I COMPLETELY agree!

You have guys at the top of the earners list just by making crazy underdog picks on even crazier odds! A lot of them don't even pick most of the fights...they're just coming in here and putting all of their money on an underdog with crazy +600 odds (like Tibau) I think the odds should be closer to the real odds (Tibau is around +270 in the betting world) It's absolutely crazy to have him a +600 IMO
npayant
2/1/08 12:37:29PM

Posted by Svartorm

We calculate our odds from the picks people make, rather than using a sports book, which is why our odds will sometimes be much different than the sportsbooks.



If odds are caculated by who people pick on this site, then why is Mir the favorite according to the odds (even though it's close) when more people have picked Lesnar to win?? 52%:48%
madmarck
2/1/08 2:39:02PM

Posted by aegion

Ok, so Terry Etim wasn't a "decent name"?! He was on 10 fight undefeated winning streak before Tibau beat him, and it was a very dominant performance, the fight is on Megaupload check it out.



Terry Etim was 1-0 in the UFC. the guy he beat was also a newcomer in Matt Grice. Terry didnt have any top 10 wins let alone top 20. Not to knock the guy, but just because you are undefeated doesnt mean you are the best in the world. Being undefeated basically means you havent fought anyone awesome yet. No champ in the UFC or Pride has got there without at least one loss.
rcg916
2/1/08 2:59:55PM

Posted by npayant


Posted by Svartorm

We calculate our odds from the picks people make, rather than using a sports book, which is why our odds will sometimes be much different than the sportsbooks.



If odds are caculated by who people pick on this site, then why is Mir the favorite according to the odds (even though it's close) when more people have picked Lesnar to win?? 52%:48%



Im sure they set the line a while back, and since then a few opinions have swung the other way...
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