I don't know, man. Lawler's takedown defense is on point if he is mentally on point. Which, frankly, he wasn't in Strikeforce. He was there because it was convenient, because they loved him, and because they paid him well. In other words, he was super comfortable but not super competitive.
Just look at his physique, then (click me)
vs now (click me)
. That's not just lighting - that's a guy who looks to be the same general size, but in 2 different weight classes and in equally different shape.
Now, it's entirely possible that MacDonald's too much for Lawler, that a combination of rangy jabs and powerful grappling will dictate the match. But at this point in Lawler's career, I think he realizes both just how special of an athlete he is, and that he can be more than a guy who hits hard. I wouldn't at all be surprised if he sprawls on MacDonald every time, or if he times a flying knee to the nose as Rory shoots in with a double leg.