does anyone else change their picks or go over them days before a fight??

MMAPlayground.com » Community » MMA Playground Game Talk » does anyone else change their picks or go over them days before a fight??
prozacnation1978
12/21/07 7:00:05PM
i love the wager and points, love to play here as well as friends and co workers. wonering does anyone else evaluate your picks a day or even a couple hours before a fight. i often do sometimes, but overall my gut instinct i need to follow but can't help but to change maybe one or two fights at last second, i wind up kicking myself for it when i lose the match like alan belcher ve starnes, also does anyone have a hard time trying not to pick favorites always to win, i did i picked vera to win when i knew i should have picked slyvia, or picked gonzaga at last hour when i had randy for over a month locked in. i try hard not to be influenced also in predictions and stuff, or what people say, i like to do my own research on the fighters, do they end fights?? are they a bjj specialist, wrestling, knockout artist or sub specialist. but i guess overall your gut feeling or first guess should be the one you stick with but it can be hard to watch when you change your pick and you wind up losing
loonytnt
12/21/07 7:45:03PM
i pick and stick with it, if i hear something bad i may chage
ohiostate1016
12/21/07 9:29:39PM
I have changed before, and sometimes it's good, but sometimes it's bad. The most recent example I can think of is when I had Jens Pulver over Cub Swanson (and I had the round/method right too), but I changed as I was writing my preview for my CPC Movies column. That was a spur of the moment thing, and I didn't really realize that Swanson was that much of an idiot. Really, he's overrated, and I was looking at the fact that he had won 11 in a row.

The only other one that I can remember that I changed at the last moment was Sylvia over Vera. I don't know what happened, but it came to me in a vision that Sylvia would win.

So, to answer your question, I do change my picks sometimes right before the fight. But I don't do it all the time. I look over my picks right before they are locked, and I am usually pretty confident with my picks.
Californiastrangler
12/21/07 9:29:47PM
I'll change my picks every few days. I read new info or whatever (especially) in the secondary league and it will make me change my picks or wagers. Actually I've been going back and forth with Machida/Soku. Soku by KO or Machida by 3rd Round yawner?hmmmmmmmmmmm
wolfman
12/22/07 12:01:42AM
I am guilty of this constantly. For some stupid reason I tend to go away from my instinct/original pick and make a last minute change like you too. I do this mostly in the secondary league. What makes me mad is when I do this with a hot bout. The last hot bout that screwed me big time was the Griffin vs. Tavares bout. I had Tyson originally to win by UD, yet changed it to Tavares by UD. There went 22 pts...I need to stop doing this. Hopefully I won't have anymore woulda shouldas...
Twenty20Dollars
12/22/07 1:03:20AM
like i'll make my picks regardless of what i've hard about a month before the event and then ill start to read about the fighters and fight and ill end up ******* changing the fighter. Like houston vs alessio i changed to alessio, rampage vs hendo had rampage and changed to hendo. and theres more i need to just stick with my orginally picks. Bocek vs Edgar had edgar but changed to bocek.
prozacnation1978
12/22/07 2:26:33AM
yeah i got hit on the griffin vs tavares also, lost out also on rampage vs hendo.
i have only lost 20 matches but get this though ever since i started picking in stacked event i am now 0-8 when it comes to double point match on each card i have lost all of them, i don't know how i do it,
right now i picks are set in stone besides the machisa vs soku match i don't know who to pick right now i have machida i will be in vegas to watch the fight but man will i be pissed if soku wins,
robnashville
12/22/07 9:54:52AM
I don't mind getting one wrong or changing up in the picks competition, but it can kill you in the wagering. I try to resist the urge but it killed me one time this year in the secondary wagering league. I looked at the alistair overeem vs paul buentello fight and right up until a few days before the fight had $ 1000 bet on Alistair. He just seemed to have fought better guys and was way more athletic. Then i got to thinking that he is way too up and down, nobody ever got rich betting on his fights because he would lose when you expected him to win and vice versa. So I decided not to bet on that one. I changed my mind again and told myself that alistair's chin wouldn't hold up to swinger like Buentello and ended up betting $1000 on Paul. They were both at about the same odds, so that was around a $2000 swing. That nearly killed my bankroll, but i made a few moves and am back up to 32 in the wagering in the Sec league.
prozacnation1978
12/22/07 11:16:11AM
i just started the wagering finally in nov put 400 on houston to win only like 100 dollars lost the match it took the other 5 bets i took just to break even on that one lost, i play safe i don't bet on all fights but only 3 to 4 now but i will put alot of money only on pretty much sure wins, like for nemesis i put alot of the dean lister fight as well as manny gamburyen fight put a little on gsp but i left the machida as well as the lidell fight alone this time. it's fun but i think it will be awhile before i consider real money of my own to bet
905010
12/26/07 8:58:46PM
I don't change my picks any more, unless i gave it 2 seconds thought the first time. and if i don't wana pick right away i don't. for UFC 74 i had patrick Cote to beat kandalll grove, but then i herd something and decided that kendall should win, then he goes and gets knocked out in the first round.

I didn't listen to my gut either when even though the hole time before the fight i had shogun, when 76 started to kreep up i had a feeling forest was gonnna win, but i didn't chage and lost.
Kpro
12/28/07 4:13:31AM
I make all picks the day before the fights and do my necessary research on fight styles, lingering injuries, training camps, etc.
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