I am wondering what my fellow playgrounders think. Unlike other sites (shitdog) you can make a post like this and not get flamed, and hear solid, well thought out responses although I don't agree sometimes they are well tought out so any response would be greatly appreciated thanks.
I usually bet 5 fights on any given card sometimes as much as 6. Never for a large amounts of money, but to keep my bankroll going that is the way it must be well at least for now. I started with $500 in april and I am up w/ just over $700 in my account. So I am not perfect but doing pretty well I might add, but I expect over time it will get better and keep in mind that I have not bet more than $30 on any event. I think there is alot to be said being up $200 since May is not to shabby. And it prompted me to write this.
I hate to say and start my breakdown like this but Gina looked like she has been rode hard and put away wet after her weight cut ala Riggs vs. Hughes and almost as bad as Lutter looked. If you watch the vid of the weigh-in you can see how drained she is physically and if not more importantly mentally I am curious to know how much weight she cut and if it will hurt her tomorrow night. I guess we will see after the first 2-1/2 minutes of the fight.
After watching the weigh-in video which does so much more than the pics, and scouting some of Kobalts mixed in with rewatching Carano's fights. I think we may have a solid upset in the making here. Coupled with Gina's crazy schedule along with all the other things she does for her career (outside of mma) I can't help but think that this has effected how she trained if it effected the dedication of training for this bout. She has said in the past she has not trained the way she should have for a figth hence the trouble cutting. My experiance tells me without proper training for cutting that weight we all know the end result.Will all the pressure of being the face of womens MMA (like it or not that's reality) get to her. On a side not IMO Cyborg would walk right through Gina.
I also love the camp that Kelly is with Minnesota martial arts acadamy has some top notch talent there w/ Erik Paulson (I have done a few seminars with him and he really knows this sport). It was amazing how intellegent he is in this game he has the classic stand with a grappler and takedown a striker, nullify what your opponent does best. So Kelly trains with Brock, Shawn Sherk, Josh Barnett on occasion trains with Erik Paulson and Minn Mart Arts Acadamy just to name a few off the top of my head but the list goes on. As good of a camp that she has- Carano is with Team Randy. edge to Carano w/ Team Randy.
Kelly has a pro record of 16-2-1 with her victories coming by way of 6 ko 8 subs 2 decisions (*3 of her submission are by way of strikes 1 verbal) along with close to 30 ametuer fights on her resume. Back to her pro fights she has finished all but 2 of her opponents. I have also thought about the long layoff ring rust (has not fought since 8/24/07 13 month's). More importantly it seems that Kelly just falls short on the big stage no amount of natural talent or training can help someone with that. At the risk of sounding corny Gina has showed up for all of her fight's dispite the fact she could not make weight for more than half of them. However I think 99% of the pressure is on Gina not Kelly. Advantage Kobald
I have noticed some good tendencies w/ Kelly Esp the way she likes to fight she has explosive takedowns and great G-n-P watching her reminds me of Huerta with that punishing grind it out style forcing you to make a mistake. Kelly was able to set her opponents w/ some decent footwork and her counter punching was very solid. In her last 2 fights (she is 0-2) she was losing on every exchange she just seemed so much slower. When she threw her punches she looked like she was pushing them and not snapping them. Kelly also fell victim to not throwing punches in bunches. She went for a very slim amount of takedowns. When she did the were very sub par. If she can not try to stand and bang with Gina work off her leg kick and faint the jab to set up for a good solid shot for a takedown. Her 2 Biggest keys to victory are wrestling (take Gina down and don't let gina win the scramble) and she needs to use her leg kicks she has excellent leg kicks and that should help keep some distance. Kelly does not want to stand in the pocket trading punches w/ Carano.
Now that I have said all that about Kelly Kobald and her keys to victory I will quickly give my opinon of why Carano is so heavily favored. Despite Cobald training at Minn Mart Arts Acad, Gina trains w/ Team Quest and does a lot of traing w/ Randy and Kim. So you know the gameplan will be very well thought out. She does have much better stand up from a technical and power aspect. She is very effective from the pocket and at keeping her distance and she will use the most effective punch in her arsenal repeatitively ( jab), which has set up her Ko/Tko off the throwing a double jab followed by an over hand or a hook 2 of her best combo's and she has used them very effectively. Her jab will also keep Kelly honest by keeping her guessing and making it tougher to shoot in for a takedown (which) is one of Kelly's keys to winning. When they exchange on the inside I think Gina should get the better of those due to her strength and punching advantage.
As far as competition goes I have only basic knowledge about some of there opponents. From what I have seen this match-up does favor Gina given the history of similar match-ups.
With some basic beting knowledge I use this formula on top of past fights tendencies.
Take Gina Carano (-585) vs. Kelly Kobald (+400) tomorrow night. With Garano at -585 you would wager $585 to win $100, so $5 to win $1. Plugged in to the formula: $5 / ($5 + $1) is 5 / 6 = .83 or 83%.
For the Underdog: 1 / (Amount won when wagering $1 + $1) = Underdog %
For Kobald you win $400 wagering $100. Applying that same ratio, you win $4 wagering $1. Plugging that in to the underdog formula: 1 / $4 + $1 is 1 / 5 = .20 or 20%.
You will notice the two percentages add up to more than 100%. This gap in the moneyline is how the sportsbook makes its commission.
It is a safe play for me betting a small amount on Kelly due to the line movement and the fact I give Kelly a 30% chance in winning this fight. right now with the line @+400 (up from +385) I think I have a solid play here.
If we believe a fighter should have a 25% chance of winning (+300) and we find a line offering a 20% chance of winning (+400), we have identified an edge. It may not seem like a lot, but it is actually very significant â?? more than enough to bet.
As far as picking the fight I do have Gina in the 2nd rnd by way of TKO.
But I have a safe play and identified and edge I have Kelly @ about a 30% chance to win and have been watching the line the bet is in my favor (she is only 20% chance to win according to Vegas).
I will take $25 on Kelly Kobald @ +400 (betus.com) as the line for them was originally @ +375.
My remaining picks as of right now are:
Over Under Distance
Slice/Shamrock Fight goes 2:30 of Round 2 (-380) @$10= $3
Kimbo -350 @$30 = $8*
Radach +195 @$20 = $39
Arlovski -500 @$25 = $6*
Kobald +400 @$25 = $100
$110 = $156
I am looking for one more fight to bet or maybe even do a prop bet. I would appreciate any feedback.
no point in betting on Kimbo or Arlovski with real money. they still have a chance to lose, and risking 55 bucks just to gain 14 really isn't worth it, even for somewhat lock picks. i would take money off of them. the odds for this casrd aren't the best and i would say Kelly is the only one that i would like.
I understand what your saying JJfreak but that is how I slowly got to where I am at. Do you have any other suggestions I have got an edge on both Kimbo and on AA do you think Shelds is a better play cause those are the only fights you can bet on this card plus the over under on the Kimbo fight which pays +400 if it goes to 2:30 of the 3rd round.
Altough it is against my judgement do I up the bet on Kimbo and AA to match the $$$ I'm laying down on Kobald
Posted by sleevey
I understand what your saying JJfreak but that is how I slowly got to where I am at. Do you have any other suggestions I have got an edge on both Kimbo and on AA do you think Shelds is a better play cause those are the only fights you can bet on this card plus the over under on the Kimbo fight which pays +400 if it goes to 2:30 of the 3rd round
i'd say take the money off of AA and put it on Kimbo. i mean -350 still isn't too bad for 55 bucks. and i am pretty certain the Kimbo fight will end before the 3rd round even begins so i would drop some cash on the under.
I agree on Kimbo but the line has changed on Kimbo to -400 on that site so if I change my bet amount then I lose the line I have now and the under on that fight is 2:30 of round 2 (-585 I think) I have to look at that again these over unders are a lil scarey I have not bet one yet. but this looks like it may be a 1st what did you think of the breakdown?
As for Gina- I thought after her last botched weight cut (when she was drinking pedialite immediately after stepping off the scale) she would be drained. However, she went in there and got the job done without looking too awful. I have made the same mistake thinking people would be gassed from the weight cut before and it's usually backfired on me, too. So Gina is still a solid bet IMO simply because she brings the standup game and at this point it seems like she can over power and avoid the takedown from most opponents. Plus, you know with EliteXC the judges and refs are going to be looking out for her.
Arlovski could lose, but I doubt it. If the small cash you will make means that much to you then it's a pretty safe bet IMO. Still, anyone can lose on any given day in MMA.
I understand you're wanting to pad your bankroll, but I personally wouldn't waste time betting on a lot of these "sure things".
I usually put a parlay wager on 3 guys with rather even odds and then maybe a hundred bucks (or few hundred, depending on my bankroll situation) on a heavy underdog.
Then again...it's not real money so of course I'm going to be a bit more ballsy.
I put $15 on Kobald to win $60 and a cover bet of $35 to win $15 on Ninja.
I've got all my cash on football this weekend instead of MMA with the way the lines are.
Gina is a big fighter for the weight class and I see Kobald having the same problems all the other girls have with Carano, she's too big and strong to take down and keep down long enough to submit for most other fighters.
MMA math doesn't always work out but Kedzie just beat Kobald and Gina walked over Kedzie also she is on a 2 fight skid losing to Tara Larosa by armbar before the Kedzie fight.
Gina is a striker thats just now learning the ground game but thats not going to matter if you cant get her on the ground and Kobald just wont be the type of fighter that can do it IMO.
Guess the MMA Math worked out this time..