Cain Velasquez will lose 2 Shane Carwin

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billfold9
10/24/10 7:18:26PM
if this fight ever happens, i just dont c how cain could win. he wont be able to take shane down, carwin is to much bigger and stronger. if they get in the clinch, carwin will do what he did 2 frank mir. so cain will have 2 stand and trade with shane, and shane will murder cain standing up.his only hope would be to hope shane gases out like he did with lesnar, but that wont happen because shane will improve his cardio and not be stupid like that again. so Shane Carwin wins by a easy 1st round KO/TKO
Jackelope
10/24/10 7:24:47PM
LOL Cain was able to take down Lesnar so I don't really see how you can say Carwin will be too big and strong for Cain.

If Cain were to lose in any way to him I think Cain would lose via KO in a standup exchange.
BlueSkiesBurn
10/24/10 7:31:30PM
I don't see this happening. Carwin's shot came against Lesnar. Velasquez, once again, is too well rounded for Carwin. Yes, Carwin has KO power, but he's MUCH slower than Lesnar. Cain's speed will be BEYOND evident in a fight with Carwin.
billfold9
10/24/10 7:33:02PM
lesnar was dazed and gassed when cain took him down. lesnar could not take carwin down till he burnt himself out. carwin wont burn himself out like that anymore. but cain has to beat JDS 1st but im hopeing JDS wins. because JDS vs Carwin would be the best stand up fight in history.
billfold9
10/24/10 7:48:08PM
his speed wont matter,cain will get clocked out if he trys to trade with Shane. Mir has faster hands then shane and he got clocked out. ill avatar bet u if this fight ever happens.
Bowen50
10/24/10 8:00:29PM

Posted by billfold9

lesnar was dazed and gassed when cain took him down. lesnar could not take carwin down till he burnt himself out. carwin wont burn himself out like that anymore. but cain has to beat JDS 1st but im hopeing JDS wins. because JDS vs Carwin would be the best stand up fight in history.




Posted by billfold9

his speed wont matter,cain will get clocked out if he trys to trade with Shane. Mir has faster hands then shane and he got clocked out. ill avatar bet u if this fight ever happens.



if Lesnar was gassed when he got taken down 2 minutes into a 5 round fight he needs to either up his cardio regiment or consider a new career because you can't hang in this sport with a gas tank like that. Cain would pick Carwin apart on the outside using leg kicks, good head movement, and crisper hands.

Mir was also pressed up against the fence with 0 separation between him and Carwin. Lesnar couldn't keep Cain down, couldn't keep him against the fence, and just couldn't match Cain's skill set. If Lesnar couldn't do that i'm almost positive Carwin can't.
BlueSkiesBurn
10/24/10 8:05:14PM

Posted by Bowen50

if Lesnar was gassed when he got taken down 2 minutes into a 5 round fight he needs to either up his cardio regiment or consider a new career because you can't hang in this sport with a gas tank like that. Cain would pick Carwin apart on the outside using leg kicks, good head movement, and crisper hands.

Mir was also pressed up against the fence with 0 separation between him and Carwin. Lesnar couldn't keep Cain down, couldn't keep him against the fence, and just couldn't match Cain's skill set. If Lesnar couldn't do that i'm almost positive Carwin can't.



Co-signed. I don't see any facet of this game that Carwin could win other than a one punch knockout.
DosBox
10/24/10 8:14:53PM

Posted by billfold9

if this fight ever happens, i just dont c how cain could win.



Hmm, interesting.


he wont be able to take shane down, carwin is to much bigger and stronger.


What makes it completely impossible that Cain wont be able to take Shane down? His college accomplishments are apparently deceiving... his era of heavyweights he had to face (Konrad, Mocco, Wagner, etc) were better than Brocks class.. and much better than Shanes class in college. That and Cain isnt far removed from competing in wrestling compared to Shane.

That being said, Gonzaga was able to take Carwin down, Brock eventually got Carwin down, Carwin will be 36-37 if he gets another crack at the title, I never thought cardio was going to be his forte, and I doubt he drastically improves in that aspect. Granted, Gonzaga took him down after he dazed Carwin, and Brock took him down after he gassed, but those are two very plausible scenarios that could happen if Cain/Carwin fight.







if they get in the clinch, carwin will do what he did 2 frank mir.


Based on what? When Frank Mir gets hit he freezes up and gets too comfortable in a bad situation. The only time ive seen Cain Velasquez get hit, he ended up plowing through a double leg takedown rather than just freeze up. I highly doubt Velasquez who is a 2 time Div. 1 All-American will just all of the sudden forget how to wrestle out of the clinch, or even attempt to wrestle out just because Carwin did it to Mir... Frank Mir's defensive wrestling is atrocious and it shouldnt be an indicitive of what Carwin could do to Shane.


so cain will have 2 stand and trade with shane, and shane will murder cain standing up.


Hmm, while I agree Carwins only chance is to land 1 punch.. I think Cain would be better prepared defensively. Remember, Neil Wain outstruck Shane Carwin.
Carwin hasnt shown much other than plodding around and throwing the same 1-2 combination. Against his fight against Christian Wellich, Carwin threw about 6 straight 1-2 combo's, and then threw the 7'th one and ends up knocking Wellisch out. Cain is a more diverse striker, both offensively and defensively. Carwin has absolutely no head movement or footwork, and any time i've seen Carwin get punched (which was by Gonzaga) he sorta froze up for a couple of seconds, and that was when Gonzaga took him down.



his only hope would be to hope shane gases out like he did with lesnar


Or if Carwn gets outwrestled by a better wrestler, or gets outstruck by a better striker.



, but that wont happen because shane will improve his cardio and not be stupid like that again.


Improve his cardio how? Does he not train for cardio? He'd be about 36-37 years old by the time he works his way back up, and he's been a guy that can really only win due to exerting a lot of energy early.. its hard to sustain anytype of output past the 1st round, will he just miracuously have this much improved cardio?
I doubt Carwin just miracuosly fixes his fighting philosophy over night.. or at least I see the odds being against him tbh.



Interesting stance to take, but I'd more interested in your analysis of a hypothetical (but somewhat plausible) Velasquez/Carwin matchup.





billfold9
10/24/10 8:22:25PM
k ill rub it in ur face when it happens.cause u guys are dumb enough to think cain will win. Carwin would kill my boy brock in a rematch just like he will kill cain. now that he improved his cardio, i only c fedor being able to beat Carwin. but he needs to hurry up and get another title shot because he is getting older.
kopower
10/24/10 8:24:10PM
I would also take Cain all day if he fights Carwin. Sure Carwin might have better hands (debatable) but Cain is quicker. I agree with Bowen's comments. Cain picks Carwin apart and if the fight does get into the championship rounds, Carwin slows and Cain finishes him. Carwin would have a great shot at getting the KO, but if Cain could take bombs from Kongo and keep going, I would assume he could do the same against Shane.

I am very intrigued if it's either JDS or Carwin getting a crack at Cain. I would prefer to see JDS because I think it would be a closer fight. Just my 2 cents
AchillesHeel
10/24/10 8:39:28PM
This is like some kind of Sherdog parody, like those Christopher Guest movies with Harry Shearer and Michael McKean. Brilliant work.
DosBox
10/24/10 8:41:16PM

Posted by billfold9

k ill rub it in ur face when it happens.cause u guys are dumb enough to think cain will win.



I really dont care if you want to rub it in my face, if Carwin knocks out Cain it would be an absolutely crazy moment for MMA!

However, I really care why you think Cain has no plausible option to win/or even be favored by the fight, especially based on the points I've previously stated.


Does Neil Wain outboxing Shane Carwin prove no indication that Cain would possibly be able to as well... given the fact that Cain is a much better striker than Neil Wain?
Does Shane Carwin stifling out an awful defensive/positional wrestler like Frank Mir any indication that Carwin can just stick a much more highly competent wrestler like Velasquez into the fence the same way without offereing any resistance into the situation.

Is Carwin just going to miraculously be able set a high volume pace for more than 1 round, and just somehow have the lungs to go a hard pace for the duration of a 15-25 minute fight given that he hasnt shown as much and is about to turn 36 years old?

I mean, they are all theoretically possible, but I think the practical notion is that the odds do not favor Carwin enough to warrant an easy win.
But hey, thats why they fight.
BlueSkiesBurn
10/24/10 9:13:53PM

Posted by billfold9

k ill rub it in ur face when it happens.cause u guys are dumb enough to think cain will win.



It's not a matter of "being dumb enough" although that's not really a logic argument and borderlines on you attempting to start a flamewar with myself and DosBox, it's a matter of setting aside your fan bias and examine this fight for what it's worth.

Cain took Lesnar down. Lesnar was unable to keep Cain on the ground or advance any sort of position on either take-down he "scored" on Velasquez. I put scored in emphasis because I don't even know if the judges would have considered the second one a take-down.

Of the three of them, Lesnar had the toughest "competition" in his collegiate day. This doesn't mean he faced the toughest consistent competition, however, as DosBox pointed out, Cain wrestled Mocco, Konrad, Wagner and more. The biggest test Lesnar faced was Stephen Neal. Neal is by far the best wrestler out of anyone that any of the three faced. Matter of fact, Neal is an alum of my University and a regular contributor to our program. I'm not going to list Neal's accomplishments here because if you're making this claim that Carwin could out wrestle Velasquez then I assume you have some working knowledge of collegiate wrestling.

Mocco or Konrad were the best that Velasquez face, but neither one of those two men saw the success in amateur wrestling that Neal saw.

As for striking, I don't understand on what you're basing your opinion of Carwin's striking being better than Velasquez's striking. Cain has great head movement, good footwork, mixes his kicks with his punches, and changes levels when needed.

As DosBox stated, Carwin plods forward and utilizes fairly limited head movement and footwork.

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with the possibility of a one-punch knockout delivered by Carwin. You seem to be forgetting that Velasquez has power behind his shots as well. Velasquez was featured on a segment of sports science and these were the results:


Velasquez's heart rate maxes out at 167 BPM, very low, on par with elite endurance athletes -
Velasquez's punch registers at 2230 lbs of force, a harder punch than any boxer ever measured in the Sport Science lab -
Velasquez's takedown generates 5000 watts of power in his hips and 2700 lbs of force, on par with NFL defensive pro Dwight Freeney



James Toney only punched with 1300 lbs of force. Cain Velasquez had almost a thousand pounds of force more behind one of his punches than James Toney does.

It's absurd to think that Cain can't deliver the same knockout blow that Carwin can. Cain can clearly wrestle with the biggest men in the HW division. Carwin is nowhere near as explosive with his wrestling as Lesnar. Carwin's power is negated when he's on his back, just like most power punchers and Cain possesses more than enough wrestling ability to put him on his back.

To say Carwin would win is fine, to dismiss the skill-set of Velasquez and say he has no chance against Carwin is poor analysis. Also, I don't know what training regiments you've ever employed, or how old you are, but you do NOT improve your cardio much more than Carwin already has at his age. Carwin is a man who constantly stays in shape and works out, it's not like he suddenly forgot what cardio training was once he left college. You may just have to face the simple fact that cardiovascular system does not get better with age as you get older.

You can hope and pray to your little heart's content that Carwin is a miracle athlete who gets better with age, but I'm thinking his body is probably close to about as prime as it can be, and he's just too big of a guy to sustain that level of energy at his age for a 25 minute fight. Science is against your opinions, but believe whatever you want.
FastKnockout
10/24/10 9:41:53PM

Posted by billfold9

if this fight ever happens, i just dont c how cain could win. he wont be able to take shane down, carwin is to much bigger and stronger. if they get in the clinch, carwin will do what he did 2 frank mir. so cain will have 2 stand and trade with shane, and shane will murder cain standing up.his only hope would be to hope shane gases out like he did with lesnar, but that wont happen because shane will improve his cardio and not be stupid like that again. so Shane Carwin wins by a easy 1st round KO/TKO



First, how do you know that he won't be able to take Carwin down? Cain handled Lesnar's strength better than anyone has yet, and Lesnar is more advanced in the strength department outside of striking. Not to mention if this fight does happening, it will be a very long time considering Carwin is fighting Nelson and JDS is lined up for the next title shot. It will be at least 2-3 more fights before Carwin earns another shot. Cain and his skill set only gets better each time he fights, and think about the time he has to train until then. He will be a monster by that time, the kid is only 23.

Second, what makes you think they will clinch? Mir sometimes prefer the clinch, so he probably didn't feel out of his comfort zone fighting Carwin, but Valesquez will have nothing of it. He will either strike, or go for the takedown, and you can even argue that Cain is stronger than Mir. Cain also has better striking defense.

Third, Cain DOESN'T have to stand with Carwin. Carwin rocked Lesnar in the first round and put a stop to any thoughts of takedowns, but at the end of the round Lesnar would have taken him down if the bell hadn't ended the round. If Cain chooses, he can take Carwin down. Carwin isn't a TDD master.

Fourth, just because you want cardio, doesn't mean you will always have cardio. Lesnar is a freak athlete, that's why he has so much cardio for his size. Carwin is different, he's a normal heavyweight. All that muscle of his does nothing but suck oxygen in the cardio department. Look at Phil Baroni, most of his losses are from lack of cardio, and he swears he trains his cardio non stop, but that doesn't help him. We just never saw his true cardio because he usually ends it in the first round, against everyone not named Lesnar.

Fifth, you seem very confident on a first round KO/TKO. Let's take a second and do some MMA math. Carwin couldn't finish Lesnar for almost four whole minutes, and Lesnar didn't defend very well to be honest, and went on to get submitted by BROCK LESNAR. Now look at what Cain did to Lesnar, not only did Cain prove that he can handle the strength of man that size, but that he can finish him. Cain had Lesnar in the same position as Carwin did, but Cain managed to do what Carwin couldn't, and that is finish Lesnar. Go on to add in all the skill set that Cain has and put it up against Carwin and his striking.

And here's a litte fun fact: On Sports Science, Cain actually scored a higher punch level than Carwin. Cain's punching power was the highest ever recorded.


If this fight ever happens, WAR CAIN!
postman
10/24/10 9:55:23PM
Obvious Cain hater. Best stand up fight in History???
BlueSkiesBurn
10/24/10 9:55:35PM

Posted by FastKnockout


Posted by billfold9

if this fight ever happens, i just dont c how cain could win. he wont be able to take shane down, carwin is to much bigger and stronger. if they get in the clinch, carwin will do what he did 2 frank mir. so cain will have 2 stand and trade with shane, and shane will murder cain standing up.his only hope would be to hope shane gases out like he did with lesnar, but that wont happen because shane will improve his cardio and not be stupid like that again. so Shane Carwin wins by a easy 1st round KO/TKO



It will be at least 2-3 more fights before Carwin earns another shot. Cain and his skill set only gets better each time he fights, and think about the time he has to train until then. He will be a monster by that time, the kid is only 28.



Fixed
jae_1833
10/24/10 10:45:45PM

Posted by billfold9

k ill rub it in ur face when it happens.cause u guys are dumb enough to think cain will win. Carwin would kill my boy brock in a rematch just like he will kill cain. now that he improved his cardio, i only c fedor being able to beat Carwin. but he needs to hurry up and get another title shot because he is getting older.


Statements like the ones you've made here are of Sherdog quality and you sir have earned a little green one as a reward!
Aether
10/24/10 10:50:22PM
Carwin is extremely dangerous, but only for a few minutes. He's too muscled for his lungs to supply enough oxygen. I think he would have a good chance to win in the first round, but if he didn't manage to do it he would surely lose. Cain is a lot faster, has way better standup, and he would only have to keep moving for a few minutes to wear Carwin down.
billfold9
10/25/10 1:32:16AM
Carwin was never tested on sports science. if he was. he would easily beat cains record.cain has better stand up??? ya tht y he had to take kongo down to win tht fight. or else he would of got KOed.and Carwin would run over kongo. but in about 9 months ill b saying i told u so :)
billfold9
10/25/10 1:40:42AM
anyways, i made this post to get ur predictions on this fight. not 4 u to write how much u disagree with some of the things i wrote. so knockoff the Billfold hateing and give me ur damn predictions.
BlueSkiesBurn
10/25/10 2:12:43AM


Posted by billfold9

anyways, i made this post to get ur predictions on this fight. not 4 u to write how much u disagree with some of the things i wrote. so knockoff the Billfold hateing and give me ur damn predictions.



When you title a post as a matter of fact statement i.e. "Cain Velasquez will lose 2 Shane Carwin" you're going to get people who disagree with you. It's not hating, despite what you may think. It's people challenging you posting your opinion as fact.

You haven't backed up much of what you've said with any sort of explanation. Not that you necessarily have to for me, as I don't particularly care. When you make blanket statements such as "they never tested Carwin on sports science or he would have beaten Cain easily" that's an opinion that you cannot substantiate with any sort of factual evidence other than Carwin actually appearing on the show and taking the test.

I think we have all pretty much made our opinions/predictions about this fight perfectly clear. Most of us believe that Carwin could win this fight via a KO at some point in the first round, but the most likely scenario is that he loses to Velasquez in a convincing fashion.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I won't particularly care if you think "rubbing it in" in nine months will affect me in the slightest as the only way I see Carwin winning this fight has been outlined for you and I'll more than likely just reply with "you didn't tell me anything."

Food for thought as well, if you don't want people to disagree with you, I'd highly suggest keeping your opinions to yourself. It doesn't matter what you do in life there's someone out there who is going to disagree with you regarding sporting competition. You can state all the reasons in the world as to why you think you're right, but they will inevitably argue back.
Pookie
10/25/10 2:16:29AM
...and Shane Carwin will lose to Junior Dos Santos if they fight.

Styles make match-ups, so there is a little pebble of wisdom in the OP even if the poster cant make sense of it himself.
TimW001
10/25/10 3:17:47AM

Posted by billfold9

his speed wont matter,cain will get clocked out if he trys to trade with Shane. Mir has faster hands then shane and he got clocked out. ill avatar bet u if this fight ever happens.



Posted by billfold9

lesnar was dazed and gassed when cain took him down. lesnar could not take carwin down till he burnt himself out. carwin wont burn himself out like that anymore. but cain has to beat JDS 1st but im hopeing JDS wins. because JDS vs Carwin would be the best stand up fight in history.



Posted by billfold9

if this fight ever happens, i just dont c how cain could win. he wont be able to take shane down, carwin is to much bigger and stronger. if they get in the clinch, carwin will do what he did 2 frank mir. so cain will have 2 stand and trade with shane, and shane will murder cain standing up.his only hope would be to hope shane gases out like he did with lesnar, but that wont happen because shane will improve his cardio and not be stupid like that again. so Shane Carwin wins by a easy 1st round KO/TKO


I think you're delusional.


Posted by billfold9

k ill rub it in ur face when it happens.cause u guys are dumb enough to think cain will win. Carwin would kill my boy brock in a rematch just like he will kill cain. now that he improved his cardio, i only c fedor being able to beat Carwin. but he needs to hurry up and get another title shot because he is getting older.



Also unsportsmanlike.


Edit: Nice UFC 121 main event pick.
Aether
10/25/10 3:21:02AM

Posted by billfold9

Carwin was never tested on sports science. if he was. he would easily beat cains record.cain has better stand up??? ya tht y he had to take kongo down to win tht fight. or else he would of got KOed.and Carwin would run over kongo. but in about 9 months ill b saying i told u so :)



Kongo is a kickboxer and Carwin is a wrestler, how does Cain having to take a kickboxer to the ground to beat him indicate that Carwin's standup is better than Cain's? Carwin might blow through Kongo, but he would probably do it with his wrestling.
postman
10/25/10 7:59:49AM
Come on Dude your fav fighter is listed as Brock. You picked Brock to beat Cain in the 2nd round by tko. Its ok to be wrong and let it pass we all have. Carwin has to beat Roy Nelson and probably someone else before he even gets a shot at the title. Cain will have to beat JDS and maybe defend again before that could all happen so this fight you’re arguing might not even happen. Lets let Cain shine a few days.
emfleek
10/25/10 8:59:18AM
billfold9 - this is your LAST warning to stop trolling. You've been warned in this past for it (amongst other things). Knock it off you're done.

Thread locked.
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