need help, im betting real money!!

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tdietel01
7/18/08 11:34:19PM
i need help from you guys on a parlay involving real money. i think my pics are solid but thought i would get some oppinions since i havnt seen some of these guys fiight in a while (or not at all)

here are the guys im taking.....

arlovski, barnett, sobral, belfort, lindland and lil nog.

is there anyone that is a big risk to my parlay? thanks!
joshryanshepherd
7/18/08 11:50:52PM
sobral is a problem i think. all the others are a sure bet
breakdown5
7/18/08 11:54:04PM

Posted by joshryanshepherd

sobral is a problem i think. all the others are a sure bet



Babalu should win but his is one of the closer fights on the card.
Mayhem13
7/19/08 12:03:43AM
personally I wouldnt put

Belfort, Arlovski, and Babalu all in a parlay..as I am pretty sure atleast 1 of the 3 will lose.

those fights are a lot closer then the odds show, and all 3 fighters are kind of unreliable at times...
Boo_Radley21
7/19/08 12:18:34AM
What's with people doubting Babalu, lol. He's gonna take Whitehead hands down.
tdietel01
7/19/08 12:47:31AM
babalu was the one i was most concerned about. and you guys confirmed it! lol i will take him off i think. thanks for the help!
Svartorm
7/19/08 2:37:22AM

Posted by tdietel01

i need help from you guys on a parlay involving real money. i think my pics are solid but thought i would get some oppinions since i havnt seen some of these guys fiight in a while (or not at all)

here are the guys im taking.....

arlovski, barnett, sobral, belfort, lindland and lil nog.

is there anyone that is a big risk to my parlay? thanks!



That is an incredibly risky parlay, even taking babalu out. Look at your record. You call one out of three fights wrong, so with that in mind, you're basically guarenteed to lose this parlay. When betting real money you have to have a very solid grasp on realistic percentages for the fights and whos going to win. Heres a run-down of those fights in percentages, from my point of view:

Arlovski vs. Rothwell 70%-30%
Barnett vs. Rizzo 80%-20%
Sobral vs. Whitehead 60%-40%
Belfort vs. Martin 70%-30%
Lindland vs. Negaro 70%-30%
Lil nog vs. Dewees 90%-10%

Any one of those goes south and you lose all your money. Parlays, while tempting, are best done with sure things (Nog and Barnett would be a fairly conservative parlay), or with a sure thing and one dog to increase the amount that dog pays off if it works out. I'd recomment scraping the parlay and putting singular amounts on Barnett, Belfort, and Arlovski if I were you, and maybe Sobral if you feel the odds are reasonable.
telnights
7/19/08 9:27:48AM

Posted by Svartorm

Lil nog vs. Dewees 90%-10%



I don't know about that Dewees could break out the fountain of blood on Lil Nog .
Svartorm
7/19/08 12:27:46PM
Where do you think I got 10% from? You don't think Dewees is actually going to hit him, do you?
Aaronno9
7/19/08 12:38:01PM

Posted by Mayhem13

personally I wouldnt put

Belfort, Arlovski, and Babalu all in a parlay..as I am pretty sure atleast 1 of the 3 will lose.

those fights are a lot closer then the odds show, and all 3 fighters are kind of unreliable at times...






Its not that im doubting Renatos skills, its just Mike Whitehead is pretty under rated becouse of his poor showing on the ultimate fighter and his ufc bout with Keith Jardine.

As for Vitor, he hasnt been a safe bet in a long time becouse you never no which vitors going to show up. Then add on the fact Martin has very good power, it makes it a risky bet imo.
Svartorm
7/20/08 5:15:31AM
Wish I'd bet on this card instead of the UFC one. A ten fight parlay would have been amazing money, even if all the favorites won.
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