Posted by tdietel01
i need help from you guys on a parlay involving real money. i think my pics are solid but thought i would get some oppinions since i havnt seen some of these guys fiight in a while (or not at all)
here are the guys im taking.....
arlovski, barnett, sobral, belfort, lindland and lil nog.
is there anyone that is a big risk to my parlay? thanks!
That is an incredibly risky parlay, even taking babalu out. Look at your record. You call one out of three fights wrong, so with that in mind, you're basically guarenteed to lose this parlay. When betting real money you have to have a very solid grasp on realistic percentages for the fights and whos going to win. Heres a run-down of those fights in percentages, from my point of view:
Arlovski vs. Rothwell 70%-30%
Barnett vs. Rizzo 80%-20%
Sobral vs. Whitehead 60%-40%
Belfort vs. Martin 70%-30%
Lindland vs. Negaro 70%-30%
Lil nog vs. Dewees 90%-10%
Any one of those goes south and you lose all your money. Parlays, while tempting, are best done with sure things (Nog and Barnett would be a fairly conservative parlay), or with a sure thing and one dog to increase the amount that dog pays off if it works out. I'd recomment scraping the parlay and putting singular amounts on Barnett, Belfort, and Arlovski if I were you, and maybe Sobral if you feel the odds are reasonable.