MikeyG is right. Probability and statistics so are so completely useless. They never help predict future outcomes. I mean meteorologist, advertisers, doctors, physicist, mathematicians, politicians, the FDA, the FBI, the CDC, car manufactures,, stock brokers, sport teams, casinos NEVER use statistics to help predict what is most likely going to happen.
MikeyG you know nothing about statistics and you are pulling of the most basic fallacy in statistics. The Ecological fallacy: You can not apply or infer that because something is true for the whole group that it is true for the individual. Just because you can give individual examples where mma math does not work does not mean that as a whole it does not work. If statistics have been done correctly and MMA math works lets say 70%(mean) of the time and you have a standard deviation of 5% then 95% of the time if you make your picks off of mma math then you will get between 60 and 80% of them right based on mma MATH. That is a fact deal with it!
All of this is only possible if the math and data have been collected correctly and statistically mma math has been shown to work.