UFC 159 Best Value

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4/27/13 12:25:46PM
While I was looking through the lines available for tonight one really stood out to me Michael Bisping -180. I think Alan Belcher is a good fighter, but he’s not better at anything than Bisping. Bisping is a little better as a striker, he’ll definitely score some takedowns, even if he doesn’t keep him down and won’t get submitted. Also, he’s been in with much better competition. His only legitimate loss in any real amount of time has been to Vitor. With the line at -180 if you give him even a 70% chance of winning and put the numbers in a kelly calculator it’s a good play. Any thoughts?
4/27/13 12:55:29PM
Thoughts? Sure, don't forget to make your picks. I'm sure you'll like it man
4/27/13 1:45:28PM

Posted by prophecy033

Thoughts? Sure, don't forget to make your picks. I'm sure you'll like it man

As for the original question, yes it seems like a great value because you rarely make money on straight bets in the long run. It may seem like a great idea in your head, but there's a reason the odds are as close as they are. Belcher fought a stupid fight against okami, but he certainly had the potential to win by more than a just a haymaker. Personally, I would parlay a few heavy overdogs with bisping, but most of my money will be on jones for a straight bet because I just filled my account so if I put all of it on him ill still come out with 50 bucks or so. His chances of winning paired with a heavy bankroll outweigh his chances of losing paired with his betting odds