Posted by airkerma
Can you better explain your model? Or provide your algorithm? I enjoy maths as much as the next guy, but it looks like your model just picks the betting favorites.
edit: on that topic, happy Pi day!
Thanks haha. And sure, the basic underlying model is a linear regression based on a whole bunch of data (takes about 2 hours to collect for each event). When I run it through a test where I randomly remove observations and then test the accuracy it shows up as around 80% accurate historically.
Obviously, 80% historically doesn't mean 80% in the future, but it is a good indication that in the long run the model will be making a profit. If you check out my website, you will see that the model has been successful at picking underdogs as well. It is 10-3 in the last two events.