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UFC 158 Picks and Bets using a Mathematical Model

fightpredictor

3/13/13 8:38:08PM

How funny is Nick Diaz? I realize a lot of people hate him, but he's very entertaining. Just swearing like mad in the pre-fight press conference.

Anyway here's my picks and bets based on my statistical model:

St Pierre over Diaz. 1 unit at 1.23 to 1 (-450)

Hendricks over Condit. 1 unit at 1.77 to 1 (-132)

Ellenberger over Marquardt. 1 unit at 1.62 to 1 (-160)

Ring over Camozzi. 1 unit at 1.89 to 1 (-112)

Elkins over Carvalho. 1 unit at 1.5 to 1 (-201)

Miller over Mein. 0.5 units at 3.52 to 1 (+352)

Who do you guys see winning this weekend?

Anyway here's my picks and bets based on my statistical model:

St Pierre over Diaz. 1 unit at 1.23 to 1 (-450)

Hendricks over Condit. 1 unit at 1.77 to 1 (-132)

Ellenberger over Marquardt. 1 unit at 1.62 to 1 (-160)

Ring over Camozzi. 1 unit at 1.89 to 1 (-112)

Elkins over Carvalho. 1 unit at 1.5 to 1 (-201)

Miller over Mein. 0.5 units at 3.52 to 1 (+352)

Who do you guys see winning this weekend?

prozacnation1978

3/13/13 9:50:38PM

I got three of your 6

Rings wins two should have been losses

Camozzi got momentum he looked good against Luis cane

Condit vs Hendricks is pretty much a toss up

I doubt johnny finishes condit but I.can see condit finishing him.

My only question is why u have a model of 6 fights only

There are 12 fights on the card

Rings wins two should have been losses

Camozzi got momentum he looked good against Luis cane

Condit vs Hendricks is pretty much a toss up

I doubt johnny finishes condit but I.can see condit finishing him.

My only question is why u have a model of 6 fights only

There are 12 fights on the card

fightpredictor

3/14/13 11:46:53AM

Unfortunately, my prediction model is only set up for when fighters have at least 3 fights recorded on fightmetric.com. This is to acoount for things like a fighter debuting in the UFC and dominating their first fight so they become overrated based on their fightmetric stats.

It allows for a better sample of data(3 fights).

It allows for a better sample of data(3 fights).

airkerma

3/14/13 2:22:40PM

Can you better explain your model? Or provide your algorithm? I enjoy maths as much as the next guy, but it looks like your model just picks the betting favorites.

edit: on that topic, happy Pi day!

edit: on that topic, happy Pi day!

jay98107

3/14/13 5:51:42PM

I agree with all of them except Hendricks over Condit. Not bad.

fightpredictor

3/14/13 8:34:52PM

Posted by airkerma

Can you better explain your model? Or provide your algorithm? I enjoy maths as much as the next guy, but it looks like your model just picks the betting favorites.

edit: on that topic, happy Pi day!

Thanks haha. And sure, the basic underlying model is a linear regression based on a whole bunch of data (takes about 2 hours to collect for each event). When I run it through a test where I randomly remove observations and then test the accuracy it shows up as around 80% accurate historically.

Obviously, 80% historically doesn't mean 80% in the future, but it is a good indication that in the long run the model will be making a profit. If you check out my website, you will see that the model has been successful at picking underdogs as well. It is 10-3 in the last two events.

prozacnation1978

3/15/13 5:35:19PM

That's cool that u made a mathematical model

I'm into calculation and stats myself for hobbie only

I'm into calculation and stats myself for hobbie only