UFC 156 Predictions

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fightpredictor
2/1/13 9:10:36PM
I've been working on an algorithm to predict UFC fights over the last year and a half or so. Here are my picks and bets for UFC 156 (I will be mocking these in the MMA fantasy on here):

Aldo over Edgar, 1 unit at 1.42 to 1
Fitch over Maia, 1.5 units at 1.588 to 1
Benavidez over McCall, 1 unit at 1.38 to 1
Tibau over Dunham, 1.5 units at 1.91 to 1
Woodley over Hieron, 0.5 units at 1.76 to 1
Overeem, Evans, Volkmann over Silva, Nogueira, Green, 1 unit at 1.958 to 1
Overeem, Evans, Rivera over Silva, Nogueira, Figueroa, 1 unit at 2.04 to 1
MuayThaiGeek13
2/1/13 10:24:24PM
Dafuqijusread
tcunningham
2/1/13 11:20:13PM
you got me interested with algorithm and lost me with all the numbers. some explanation?
fightpredictor
2/1/13 11:30:22PM
Haha sorry guys. Basically its a math model that allows me to predict UFC fight outcomes. The numbers are basically the number of units I'm betting vs what I will get back. For example, a 1 unit bet at 2 to 1 means if I win I get 2 units back, therefore my profit is 2-1 or 1 unit.

I decided to make a unit 5% of my betting bankroll. So if you assume my bankroll is $100, a 1 unit bet is $5. The Jose Aldo bet above at 1.42 to 1 will win me $0.42 for every dollar bet. The same logic applies to the other questions.

Sorry for not being more clear initially, let me know if you have any other questions and feel free to check out the website. If you've never bet before, there are instructions for setting up a betting account. You can do so for as little as $20.
DrSlacker
2/2/13 8:30:43AM
Describe your algorithm
It looks like you just pick the dude with the better record of recent fights lol
fightpredictor
2/2/13 9:40:42AM
Basically, I collect a whole bunch of data and use a math technique called regression analysis which takes a whole bunch of data and creates a formula. I then test that formula to see how accurately it has worked based on the historical data I have collected.

On this card in particular, most of the fighters are those who seem like they obviously should win.
kopower
2/2/13 11:31:36AM

Posted by MuayThaiGeek13

Dafuqijusread



Bubbles
2/2/13 12:54:12PM
or you can just give normal odds like -200 or 2:1
JLS1980
2/2/13 2:34:57PM

Posted by Bubbles

or you can just give normal odds like -200 or 2:1



That's how I do it.
fightpredictor
2/2/13 2:38:45PM
Aldo over Edgar, 1 unit at -179
Fitch over Maia, 1.5 units at -195
Benavidez over McCall, 1 unit at -235
Tibau over Dunham, 1.5 units at -110
Woodley over Hieron, 0.5 units at -125
Overeem, Evans, Volkmann over Silva, Nogueira, Green, 1 unit at +200
Overeem, Evans, Rivera over Silva, Nogueira, Figueroa, 1 unit at +204

Changed to regular odds lol. The other way is just what you get back from betting $1. I just find it easier to work with.
Chael_Sonnen
2/2/13 4:06:51PM
Just went to your website homie.......I have a new formula for ya to follow.....using a typeface that is easier to read.....I have an easier time deciphering Rampage spewing baby ga-ga from his stanky pie-hole than trying to read Garamond over top of a horrible background image.

Simple Math > algorithm
fightpredictor
2/2/13 5:28:26PM
What simple math are you referring to? As for the typeface/background, its black text on a white background...why is it hard to read?
prozacnation1978
2/2/13 6:16:26PM

Posted by fightpredictor

Haha sorry guys. Basically its a math model that allows me to predict UFC fight outcomes. The numbers are basically the number of units I'm betting vs what I will get back. For example, a 1 unit bet at 2 to 1 means if I win I get 2 units back, therefore my profit is 2-1 or 1 unit.

I decided to make a unit 5% of my betting bankroll. So if you assume my bankroll is $100, a 1 unit bet is $5. The Jose Aldo bet above at 1.42 to 1 will win me $0.42 for every dollar bet. The same logic applies to the other questions.

Sorry for not being more clear initially, let me know if you have any other questions and feel free to check out the website. If you've never bet before, there are instructions for setting up a betting account. You can do so for as little as $20.



Curious how your fight predicter outcome will be after the fights tonight.
Chael_Sonnen
2/3/13 1:28:30AM
Would love to see your UNIT predictions now.
airkerma
2/4/13 10:19:28AM
I like the idea, but it looks like the algorithm breaks down during upsets.
prozacnation1978
2/4/13 4:37:24PM
So how did you do in picks ??
Won't hold it against ya if u did shit on the fights
I think we all took a hit on the card
I was lucky to go 5-6.
Only fight I could see my self maybe changing was
The Flagg vs Edwards fight. And I have Yves winning it
PaulieG
2/4/13 9:28:43PM
Here's mine. Bet against old washed up fighters with BIG names. Like WAND!
Check me out here: http://www.youtube.com/mmahypepredictions
fightpredictor
2/5/13 10:10:27PM
Did not do as well as I was hoping on this card. I don't think many people did. The point of the model is that over, say 100 cards, it will be generating a profit. One card isn't necessarily a good sample, especially one with as many upsets as this one.

Overall, went 4-5 in my predictions, but most of the right picks were favourites so they didn't pay out very well. I'll be posting later this week with some more details about the model and accuracy, etc.